Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

I think the country is Brenda from Bristol. Just want it done and over with.

No deal is closest to DONE, therefore that’s what more and more people are saying they’ll be happy with. Even though it would be awful, it would be done.

Except it wouldn't.

And I'd be hungry.

Hello, I usually keep off these threads as I find them too depressing, but I wanted to share this Tweet from yesterday, I hope I'm not duplicating anything.

Good Friday Agreement
‏ @BelfastAgmt
11h11 hours ago

Good Friday Agreement Retweeted Dara Ó Briain

“Sticking point” is a new one I’ll be honest

Good Friday Agreement added,
Dara Ó Briain
@daraobriain
Replying to @jeannesmith1
I love that you think the Good Friday Agreement is a “sticking point”, not a binding international treaty.
1 reply 5 retweets 45 likes

I don't know who @jeannesmith1 is, but I'm betting she thinks like Mrs May.

I think the country is Brenda from Bristol. Just want it done and over with. No deal is closest to DONE, therefore that’s what more and more people are saying they’ll be happy with. Even though it would be awful, it would be done.

I can see why people might imagine that. Sadly, they're wrong, of course. It's never going to be done. The economic effects, the obliteration of our international reputation, the brain drain, the schism in society - not going away for probably decades.

By not standing up for the truth and actively showing how Leave was a falsehood our parliament has simply descended into fiction. The main issue with this is that nothing they do will help anyone feel better. However the people who believe in the fairies at the bottom of the garden are largely made up of a group of thuggish white men with a lot of time on their hands and low intellect which means that they have radicalised a very real threat to not only the countries standing on the global stage, but also have the very real threat of them turning against MP's with violence. Jo Cox showed what happens when these people flip. She's not as often mentioned and the reasoning examined for my liking. I wouldn't want to be an MP that votes for what even half of the 52% think is a cop out.

{But the damage to our economy going on for years and years while we have politicians squabbling about what they want and coming up with no answers will be enormous.}
You have to accept that the UK economy is going to be permanently destroyed by leaving. There is NO sunny upland in the future, at least nothing that is going to transform the post industrial areas of the UK.
The UK is not 'unique' enough in its own right to ever get back to where it was. Yes some activities will do well but the rest of the world has already got mass production sorted out. The UK has very few natural resources and can't feed itself, therefore it HAS to trade. What is the UK going to do that is BETTER than any other country that uses fewer natural resources and can trade at minimal tariffs with the world? If you are thinking of 'sweatshops' for manufacturing, the far East has that covered. Hi Tech, OK the UK is/was up at the top, but that only extends to relatively few people, say 100,000 to be fairly generous, and even then they are on the same playing field as many other countries.

However the people who believe in the fairies at the bottom of the garden are largely made up of a group of thuggish white men with a lot of time on their hands and low intellect

That makes them "Brexiteers" then. Someone who has chosen not to engage their intellect with reality, and then proceeds to berate all around for not believing in fairies. Very easy to hoodwink (who'd have thought it ?)

Yes - I believe at the very least half of those who voted to leave would rather have No Deal than WA/cop out (as they see it). It's the biggest threat and May alluded to it in her speech in HoC yesterday.

No deal wouldn’t be Brexit done. Every part of these islands would be plunged into chaos and we would be forced to ask our neighbours for many smaller deals to keep things ticking over.
And you know their answer? Yes, if you sign up to that Withdrawal Agreement.

Biggest threat to violence anyway.
Not brain drain/deaths from lack of meds/food (can't believe i'm even typing that) - things that remainers worry about at least.

Incandescently angry about this shitstorm.

Not sure how I can bear the next 8 weeks.

Can the PM seriously be contemplating No Deal? A situation that will lead to food shortages, medicine shortages, travel chaos and economic downturn? And most likely, civil unrest? How will history look back on her and her party - with utter derision, but that's not much consolation in the short term.

How can this be the best of options?

The Brexiteers I know are not thuggish men with too much time on their hands but mostly middle aged, white, middle class and working class, some with degrees, some market traders, farmers (honestly), retired teachers - what unites them is their complete ignorance about the EU and our relationship with it, and their delusion that somehow British are superior to the rest of the world and able to rise above any adversity. Oh and my DD's friend who voted Leave because she saw it on a bus, but she didn't know what we were leaving, and can she take it back please?

Thank you for this thread Red. It reinforces my deep gloom. I think I'll go and cultivate my garden...

What d’you mean, Lonely? That rioting that it’s not no-deal is the biggest threat of violence? Maybe I’m misreading, but if so, I disagree. The biggest threat of violence hanging over all of us is if the GFA is shafted; paramilitaries on both sides are rearming.

{No deal wouldn’t be Brexit done. Every part of these islands would be plunged into chaos and we would be forced to ask our neighbours for many smaller deals to keep things ticking over.}

A 'no deal' is almost as devastating as a Tsunami, with the exception that houses will not be destroyed, ( with apologies for anyone who has lived through a natural one).
People in the UK think it can't happen, experience around the world tells you it can. The difference is that it is the total failure of government which is causing it. A natural disaster has goodwill and a government who is trying to rectify the problems, even if chaotically.
The UK government still hasn't decided how far down it wants to go and has no 'reconstruction' plans.

lonely Unlike with trade, there's no international law or EU reg to prevent countries prioritising some visitors from some countries.
It is common for most countries - including the UK - to prefer and prioritise e.g. wealthier over developing countries

What is the UK going to do that is BETTER than any other country that uses fewer natural resources and can trade at minimal tariffs with the world?

Well it was trading. We were very good at it. World class in fact. So much so that pretty much all the world trusted us to oversee, manage and advise on trade matters.

Now all gone. Not going. Not at risk. Not waiting for anything. Just plain gone.

gone. gone. gone

Not gone.

gone.

So now the future wealth of the nation is going to have to rely on the gammon contingent. If only there was money and prosperity in exporting ignorance, racism, stupidity and bad dress sense.

This is our

No deal is closest to DONE, therefore that’s what more and more people are saying they’ll be happy with. Even though it would be awful, it would be done.

But it would be the opposite of done. How can people think No Deal Brexit means it's all over? That's insane.

How can people think No Deal Brexit means it's all over? That's insane

There are a lot of stupid people. A lot.

The biggest threat of violence hanging over all of us is if the GFA is shafted; paramilitaries on both sides are rearming.

At the risk of understatement, I'd hope that any Republican extra-political activity in the 21st century would be more nuanced - and effective - than bombs and bullets. The takeaway message of the 70s, 80s and 90s was that the UK government was happy to see innocent civilians blown up, as long as they could leach off the "no surrender" energy they could whip up in (mainly) Tory voters. Who we have already established not only know fuck all about the situation in NI, but devote considerable time and effort into not understanding. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more than would be needed to understand.

Assuming the fundamental political goal of Republicanism is the unification if Ireland, the shifting tides of history and technology means there are much more effective ways to bring that about. (What with Ireland being one of the more tech-savvy EU countries).

That said, currently, the most effective thing seems to be leaving the UK/DUP lovebirds to do the heavy lifting.

But it would be the opposite of done. How can people think No Deal Brexit means it's all over? That's insane.

The whole thing has been insane since Cameron decided to hold a bloody referendum to deal with Tory party squabbles. I wouldn't start looking for sanity now.

PMK

Red I think I hear in your posts this morning a slight shift to thinking the WA will eventually be agreed?

Checking because this is what I desperately want to hear from you & worried that I might be therefore be suffering from confirmation bias...

Like so many others here I would prefer revoke/remain but am now at the point where I just want to know that there will be a WA so we will still have food and I can sleep at night

Anyone else pissing themselves laughing at the Wetherspoons pizza thread ?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3494175-Not-allowed-to-cut-up-pizza-in-Wetherspoons

TL;DR, but if the OP is trolling, it's a hat-tip to them

Haven't the DUP ruled out voting for the WA ?