Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

If you are independently wealthy enough to support yourselves and your kids for the rest of their lives

then you are right: No Deal will not affect your lives.

All goods will have to be checked at some kind of Irish border
It is only currently that some are not checked

It is much easier and less obtrusive to check goods with a sea border

No Deal will break up the UK much sooner than any other option

Once Scotland shares the economic hammer of No Deal, the economic arguments for remaining within the UK fall away
and the demand for Indy will spike.

My fear and expectation is that a desperate & distracted Westminster will use force to keep Scotland from rebelling

So the breakup will not just be sooner, but quite possible with a few Bloody Sundays in Scotland

Mother
{And anyway - if it is only certain goods that will be checked how will that stop all the Romanians and Latvians crossing into our precious GB?}
That is one of the most disgusting and at the same time ridiculous statements I have heard for a few weeks.
ANYBODY without a criminal record can come to the UK or most other countries in the world for 3 months.

The 'vote/referendum' in 2016 is not sufficiently valid to be relevant in discussions about disbanding the union.

I expect violence in England too, as the govt tries to keep the plebs under control,

but nations trying to break away during an economic and social meltdown,
with the most incompetent and malevolent Westminster since the 19th century,
is a recipe for utter disaster.

JellyCat I'm half Eastender and half Greek, somehow think moving to Greece may unfortunately be a case of out of the economic frying pan into the fire, although things might be looking up there i understand.

You only need the passport JC. Then you can use it to pass the port into 26 other countries to seek work or study.

As for gp's born in the 1800's. When I tell people when my DF was born, I always prepare the ground with 'He had me very late in life'.

Mother
{I am bloody well living in Belgium while my kids are all in the UK.}
Add hypocrisy to your CV.

mobile.twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1090918652101226496
Dr. Jennifer Cassidy
@OxfordDiplomat
“May I ask you. Have you read the Good Friday Agreement?” To which Dominic Raab replied: “Well, I haven’t said down, and started from the beginning and gone through it.”

I chose the hope of negotiating something better later
and the certainty of a backstop that is MUCH better than No Deal

to the certainty of choosing disaster now

Huge difference in what is needed to process people and what is needed for goods.

The wealthier EU countries will continue to welcome UK mc professional especially from the finance / IT / tech / science / engineering sectors
Also the young, fit skilled and unskilled workers.

So expect not just a braindrain, but a further worsening of Uk demographics and skills

One good thing - this has given me a hard kick to get to grips with PHP at last. I've been coasting along for a while picking bits up piecemeal without the motivation to really get in there, but now it's time to focus and get my head down, and learn the foundations. Then it will be JavaScript.

So, yay for up-skilling.... shame I've half an eye on making myself a more attractive immigrant as opposed to a more attractive U.K. worker but since we're all sick of experts I'm sure that won't be a problem!

"Giving in to a border in the Irish Sea means accepting the end of the UK."
It may ultimately lead to unification of Ireland. But that will be a democratic decision. It may lead to another Scottish independence referendum which may have a different result. Wales simply cannot survive without England but it may at some point make the democratic decision to go independent. As BeLeavers are so fond of saying "will of the people ".

My fear and expectation is that a desperate & distracted Westminster will use force to keep Scotland from rebelling

I would be 100% certain that if Scotland voted for Independence by a 52:48% margin, there wouldn't be a whisper of talk about 'the will of the people'. Oh no, Westminster would try every trick in the book to deny the validity of the vote.

I get what you mean about checks only being on goods but once there's a border it would be easy to harden it.

I just think it would make more sense to not have any borders at all. But then I suspect I'm preaching to the converted.

Susan We're leaving the No Borders bloc
"Willie-wagging of the people" and all that

DD embarassing us with his stupidity wherever he goes

https://www.rt.com/uk/419340-robot-lawnmowers-davis-brexit/amp/?twitterr_impression=true

David Davis traveled all the way to Vienna to bore and confuse business leaders there for a change,

delivering a Brexit speech the highlight of which was the revelation that he owns a robot lawnmower.

I don’t see how a border in the Irish Sea would lead to a ‘border poll’. Actually I think quite the opposite.
The DUP have played their hand so badly IMO. Probably because they thought, like so many of us, that leave wouldn’t win. Supporting it was a good way of whipping up their base into even more of a frenzy, but now they’re stuck with the consequences.

Sorry, I meant to add those Mad Max ministerial wanderings explain his recent weird US visit

• basically, we should keep him at home and not let him out to embarass us

Polls show No Deal is actually the only scenario in which Irish Reunification (heavily) beats staying in the UK

No Deal would break up the UK

I expect violence in England too, as the govt tries to keep the plebs under control

Too late. BigChocFrenzy . They are in control and they are very violent. Government has no intention of keeping them under control.

Add hypocrisy to your CV
What a cruel, unpleasant and uninformed thing to write.

mother