Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Comedian Jeremy Hardy has just died.

Aged 57. So sad.

Thing is, @SusanWalker ,when you cross the Tamar bridge you don't enter into an area that doesn't permit abortion. Even for rape or incest.

Jeremy Hardy was a funny guy and far too young.

Very sad about Jeremy hardy

Motheroffourdragons - I agree. I meant that that was the necessary result of their vote, not that they were actively voting for that.

"I'm afraid the "they wouldn't do that" and "they wouldn't let that happen" line of rebuttal for Brexit failed a long time ago. You can't refute things just because they're barmy or even illegal."

I had a similar conversation with DH yesterday, DG
He was saying that the Conservatives were making themselves unelectable.
I suggested that we may not see another election as we currently know it: TM has said she will not be PM after Brexit and the Government now have all those Henry VIII powers, they can do what they like, dictate how they please.
DH thought that was ridiculous: I pointed out that he'd have said the current situation was ridiculous if I'd told him about it 3 years ago.

*it's only the DUP that are not in agreement to the border being in the Irish Sea...?

The problem with that is it then opens the door for Scotland to also have it's own CU - something that the SNP mooted right at the start.*

If Scotland was to all stay in the CU then we'd need a border between Scotland and England - I imagine that would possibly be welcomed by a fair few Scots.
Interesting times...what an utter mess!

@Motheroffourdragons , yes I am. I want NI to be a special economic zone to get the best of both worlds.

Poor Jeremy Hardy. So sad

{Very sad about Jeremy hardy}
Such a talent.

Surely the 'customs in the Irish sea' is only for goods and has the 'convenience' that they could be checked during the crossing. Yes a 'fudge' but a practical one. The possible loss of customs revenue on the island of Ireland is 'bearable' to accommodate the lack of physical land border. Customs documentation has various tariff codes anyway so whether it is one number or a different number is not important.

If Scotland was to all stay in the CU then we'd need a border between Scotland and England

which makes me then wonder if what we currently think of as "the border" really is "the border" ? Certainly whether it could be physically delineated as such ?

A few people have noted that the RoI/NI border splits houses and roads ... unless that's exaggeration for comedic effect . The situation of driving down the road in NI, but moving into RoI to overtake was posited.

Wales would have a similar issue, but they carelessly handcuffed themselves to England in Leaving.

susan Those checks are only for goods, not people
and with a sea border, the checks would be partly electronic, pre-clearance at ports etc

There are already checks on meat, because Ireland is all one block when it comes to beef, lamb etc and iirc some kinds of agricultural produce

You haven't noticed this yet as a passenger and you wouldn't in future

@Motheroffourdragons , those DUP bastards want to be treated differently except when they don't. No right to choose in NI. At all.
Either accept WA (and the backstop) or there's a border in the sea.

There is a difference between "they wouldn't dare because it would hurt people"
and
"they wouldn't dare because it is against wealthy people / businesses who would use international law to slap down the UK govt"

The UK is just not powerful enough to illegally freeze assets of the very wealthy, or big business
and if the govt try that with foreign-owned assets, then we'll have international trade sanctions & punitive tariffs to add to the joy of Brexit

The UK govt could find its own assets abroad being seized by other courts & govts

Mother You seem to believe the ERG lies that ordinary people won't notice a big difference between No Deal and the WA

WRONG:

1. WA = hurt pride

2. No Deal = economy falling over a cliff
   unless you are very wealthy, you and your kids will suffer too and they especially will lose decades they can never make up.

The EU govts joint intelligence reports I posted on an earlier thread predicted Indy Refs in NI and Scotland within 18 months of No Deal.

They also predicted widespread civil disorder with no end in sight

People who are actively saying that are saying they are happy to break up the UK.

I think whatever happens from here, it's clear the Union can't continue as is. Something needs to be changed before we do descend into a very nasty mess with more than just slogans. It's unsustainable to see Scotland flipping between being the poor relation when the Tories are in, and the overbearing needy relative when Labour are in. The EVEL debacle should have been used to consider such things in more depth.

And it's patently clear to the whole world that NI is ruled by 10 people - aspiring to North Korean standards of democracy.

I've lived through things that seemed impossible when I was at school. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of communism and the USSR, the reunification of Germany, the end of apartheid and freeing and elevation to president of Nelson Mandela.

In comparison, the dissolution of the UK - hopefully peacefully - would really just be a footnote to all that. Especially when viewed alongside Brexit.

Who knows - there might be votes in England for a separatist party ? By which I mean one that eschews the "protect the Union at all costs" bullshit of Labour and Tory (not sure what the LD line is ?) but which has a policy of supporting self-determination if it's what the constituent country wants.

Alternatively the basis of "Union" needs to be addressed ? As Tony Benn once noted, there are many ways to enjoin nations. (This was when he asked why the EU was insistent on "federal" when there are other models such as "commonwealth")

Independent- The EU has agreed to give British citizens visa-free travel to member states, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Fools- who'd want us. Xenophobic, insular, small minded numpties that we are. I'd build a wall to keep us out.

Motheroffourdragons
As BCF and others have already said, NI has many 'exceptions' already and having the border in the sea only extends a few of these and would be transparent to individuals but not goods.
Scotland also has exceptions, their laws are different although generally closely aligned with England so you only notice them when say purchasing a property and so on. Even Wales has some divergence.
Whatever happens, the UK leaving will actually take a minimum of a year to achieve, even 'no deal' because there is simply too much to be unpicked. A no deal will have many fudges applied in the short term all of which add to the cost of the exercise.

The EU has agreed to give British citizens visa-free travel to member states, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Well, at least that's some good news.