Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Is there time to invent a moving business abroad tax?

Probably already buried in the legislation. With provisions to seize any UK held assets against payment - even if held jointly. In which case I would be amazed if the relevant benefits legislation hasn't already been amended to disqualify anyone from claiming benefits because they've lost their home to the Brexit tax.

Also quite conceivable there are provisions for a US style "pay anywhere" income tax once we're out of the EU.

Is it possible that the Tories are ticking down the clock to Brexit day, while keeping the DUP on side FOR NOW... and then at the last minute (once Brexit Day is upon us, and the stupid fucking "will of the people" has been "delivered" so the Tories won't mind a general election) that she'll screw the DUP over and just get everybody agreeing to the border in the Irish Sea?

I don't know if I'm wording what I'm trying to say properly, because I'm not as astute as some of you...

But what I mean is, from my understanding, it's only the DUP that are not in agreement to the border being in the Irish Sea...? And the only reason they're even being listened to in the first place is because they're propping up the government... (Not saying they shouldn't be listened to, but I mean their concerns would probably be deemed more disposable to TM if they werent propping her up)... So would a WA go through whereby the border was in the Irish Sea if they had less input?

I can see TM screwing over the DUP rather than the extremists in her own party, but she probably can't do it now while she wants to cling on to power. However, when it's nearing time up for her and she knows she won't be relying on the DUP anymore, would she possibly then just give them two fingers and put the border in the sea after all saying it's the only solution?

There really isn't another one is there? Ian Blackford and Mhairi Black could give a dazzling rendition of "Let's Call The Whole Thing Off?" maybe? Would that work? That would be my first choice

It is difficult to see volume car making in the UK at all after a very short period.
All of them are 'struggling' with over production in Europe and see expansion towards China etc. Brexit had given them an ideal importunity to lose capacity without having to cut mainland Europe production, or trim rather than cut.
The headline on SKY news about the UK only benefiting from the new EU/Japan trade deal for 57 days if it crashes out, and only until 2021 (end of transition) even if it passes the WA.

“Sounds as if some labour MPs are doing their own versions of the DUP deal with the conservatives, cash for their areas in return for votes. Thats not dodgey at all that...”

They are utterly stupid to trust her if that was their reason. TM will lie through her teeth to get what she wants, then let them down. Has she kept her promises to the DUP yet?

“headbangers on both sides give up, stand down, are deselected, kidnapped by aliens or whatever removes them permanently from public life. We all live as happily as poss ever after.”

We used to have the Tower of London...

cheekychops it's not just the DUP. Also, which isnt being spoken about by us but a mentioned by EU leaders, the WA was voted down for other reasons besides the backstop. The back stop is an issue for the headbangers but other more moderate MPs voted WA down for other reasons....some did it to up the chances of a PV, GE, extension to negotiate a softer brexit.

I like the dazzling rendition of Lets call the whole thing off....worse comes to worse all remainers could sing it in the 28th of March wherever they are in the world. I'm so tuneless leavers will be begging for a revoke

Oh and obvs some voted WA down because they want a no deal and fear the WA will lead to a soft brexit.

it's only the DUP that are not in agreement to the border being in the Irish Sea...?

The problem with that is it then opens the door for Scotland to also have it's own CU - something that the SNP mooted right at the start.

The irony is the DUPs position is pretty much the public position TM has taken. That the UK should be treated as one. Which is the only real stance to take to fend off Scottish independence with any degree of integrity (yes, I know).

Incidentally, the "1 in 3" stat from upthread needs to be viewed against the reality that unless a company has moved it's entire operations - including banking, insurance, and anything else subject to UK law (including customers) out of "the jurisdiction" then they aren't "out of the UK". And as the UKs GDP heads south, they'll still be subject to all the extra taxes that will be needed to stand still.

So I'd take "1 in 3" with a pinch of salt. Although, that said, the kinds of business that could just up sticks are probably the ones the UK could do with most (cf wobbly firms where the best employees jump ship when they can, usually leading to the inevitable decline).

A stark picture of the state of our politics www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-brexit-distracted-the-uk-from-its-real-problems-a-1249990.html

The view from outside our country is not pretty.

Got the Wetherspoons rag just now. Uninstalled Wetherspoons app as I was taking post into kitchen. Job done.

DG With creative accounting, Amazon & co manage to avoid nearly all tax on their uk operations producing uk profit
so I doubt if other firms would be unable to avoid tax if they genuinely do move out.

No, a tax on moving abroad would be against international law

I know many Brexiters think the UK can ignore that, we're not a superpower like the US
and after no deal we'd have much less clout than before

What could happen if the Sterling drop becomes a spiralling collapse is that the govt imposes curreny controls, in an attempt to prevent people moving their savings abroad.

That only works on the little people and only then on those that didn't see this coming
(Any Westministenders planning to move abroad in the near future with 6 or 7 figure sums might want to transfer the money NOW)

Any companies slower than Barclays will still be able to move their money out after Brexit.

The UK depends on the City finanical centre so much
that telling business and the international wealthy that the UK freezes / grabs your money would just kill the economy very quickly

Motherofourdragons: "I think it is a big no no to have a border in the Irish Sea. It puts the regions of Great Britain at a distinct economic disadvantage to NI and destabilises our United Kingdom."

But that is what the Brexiters voted for. It is the only way to fit leaving a customs union with the obligations under GFA.

I expect that 1 in 3 figure refers to foreign-owned and / or exporters - too high to be all businesses in the country
Even then most will just be considering leaving as one of a few other options

Of course some UK businesses will move too or will go bust - just among the few small businesses I know, a few have already done one of these

Some won't be able to make enough profit - e.g. JIT manufacturing
others with a captive market will have to put up prices and hope their customers have the moolah.

so, a tax on moving abroad would be against international law

and ?

So is breaking the GFA which appears to be fair game. And currency controls aren't against international law, just in case.

I'm afraid the "they wouldn't do that" and "they wouldn't let that happen" line of rebuttal for Brexit failed a long time ago. You can't refute things just because they're barmy or even illegal.

Comedian Jeremy Hardy has just died.

others with a captive market will have to put up prices and hope their customers have the moolah.

Ah, well, that's how spirals work. Funny how increases in wealth never really trickle down, but a small shrinkage, and it's reached the bottom before you can say "free market forces".

foreign investors’ rights are protected under bilateral investment treaties (BITs)

• UK has signed 110 BITs with many countries and also the <a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=energycharter.org/fileadmin/DocumentsMedia/Legal/ECTC-en.pdf" target="_blank">Energy Charter Treatyy (ECT)

These treaties aren't to prevent freezing of investor assets :
they are to enable foreign investors to sue governments like the UK for decisions resulting in financial losses from new policy decisions like Brexit
I expect Japanese firms especially have been pouring over their copies

e.g.
CAN FOREIGN INVESTORS SUE THE UK FOR BILLIONS OVER BREXIT?

http://www.keepcalmtalklaw.co.uk/can-foreign-investors-sue-the-uk-for-billions-over-brexit/

International investment law aims to protect foreign investors from unpredictable, unstable, and vague environments
in order to ensure that investors can invest safely and securely.

DG The UK isn't big enough to get away with it
The US might, not the UK.
Firms would sue and the UK would just be faced with punitive damages

Might even finally lose our UN Security Council seat

In the case of foreign firms, their govts would impose sanctions and punitive tariffs against UK goods.

Hence why I think currency controls on UK private investors - not the big boys of course - is the only likely one of those kind of measures.

Some Brexiters may think they can ignore international law - and they can against the plebs like us -
but if May's successor is stupid enough to try that against rich investors or businesses,
then the UK will be slapped down so hard that its collective ears will ring for a decade.

anyone else had a bank blocking accound for trying to tranfer money abroad via an exchange brooker?

I actually agree that there shouldn't be a border in the Irish sea. I would be more than pissed off if I had to go through checks every time I crossed the Tamar bridge.

It's obvious we should do CU/SM and then there is no need for borders at all.

Comedian Jeremy Hardy has just died.

WTF !!!!!!!

Saw him in 2017 - very very funny.

RIP