Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Pmk

Dover Port Director and haulage companies speaking of no-deal now. It really looks like less than 10% of lorries would get through.

Speaking as a complete land-lubber and no-doubt exposing my ignorance, I always wondered why they don't re-route some necessary imports up to the eastern ports, particularly that one near Grimsby? Surely spreading the load across roads unaffected by the crush in that little corner in the south-east would be good. It might also be a signal that Westminster recognises that the regions exist and could be a step towards regeneration.

The men in Dover look dead behind the eyes.

@DangermousesSidekick , it's about whether a port is set up to take those vessels or to process what comes off them.

DangermousesSidekick
While a good question, most of the current fresh food imports are on Roll On/Roll Off ferries (very quick for trucks to drive on and off) and the sea journey is only an hour or thereabouts(?).
Allied to this are the ramps and other infrastructure that makes quick turnaround very efficient. More northerly ports tend to be containers which are rather slower to load and of course don't have RoRo ramps etc. They also have less infrastructure for customs as containers are sealed and have travelled for days so the port authorities know what is in each container beforehand.
Distribution depots for fresh foods are strategically placed for loads from Dover so would require rearranging from Harwich or anywhere further North.
It's a well oiled piece of machinery that won't really work 'backwards'.

DangermousesSidekick - why they don't re-route some necessary imports up to the eastern ports

Time taken to sail up the east coast to Hull etc is longer than sail across channel and motorway to where-ever. Also capacity of ports to handle extra traffic. Cope with ro-ro ferries vs container ships and existing maritime traffic ...

Could have been done with a bit of prior planning etc ... but this is the Tories and Failing Grailing we are talking about.

It’s the time factor. Sea travel is slower, so sea routes are minimised as far as possible.

These threads move quick!
Thanks red

Why is Jeremy against the backstop?

I doubt NO DEAL will happen. I thought there was a majority on all sides to avoid this.

So where next?

The ridiculous nonsense of May going to EU to amend an agreement that was agreed is just nonsensical.

Anyway, keeping my pecker up, and hoping for the best and that the COUNTRY is paramount, not the Tories is what I am hoping for.

If UK renages on WA because of some Red Lines, they are deluded.

If someone could point out to me the benefits of a no deal I would gladly read.

It doesn't matter if there is an HoC majority against No Deal if they are too careerist to vote that way when it matters
A silent majority there would be bloody useless if it never votes

Are we any clearer on what might happen in HoL or is that all hush hush/we will change rules if needed still?

Liverpool has capacity for more containers. But the infrastructure around it just isn't up to that. They were pushing for improvements pre-brexit and the completion of the new dock but nothing happened. The motorways just aren't up to it. There no where to stack.

I should imagine its a similar picture elsewhere.

The port has capacity for customs because it takes in much more from the rest of the world, but what it particularly lacks is the ability to process fresh produce as it needs to be processed much quicker. A company I worked for used to land containers from the Far East at Southampton and it would take some time for them to be cleared. It certainly wasn't an overnight thing and the company had someone experienced doing all the complex paperwork.

I know that landing fees at Liverpool were higher than Southampton AFTER you took into consideration haulage costs to the north West, too. I don't know if this has changed in the last couple of years, but it was pretty crazy that it was cheaper to import into Southampton than Liverpool if you were in Manchester.

I think so many people have no idea over the customs requirements as they haven't come into contact with it. The logistics of it are a nightmare.

I do think the 10% thing over lorries getting through is realistic and not scaremongering in the slightest. The little knowledge of logistics I have in the workplace is enough.

Thanks, didn’t know difference between container and ro-ro ships.

“Could have been done with a bit of prior planning etc ... but this is the Tories” - ha. Brexit all over.

Big Choc,

So MPs vote with their wallet/need for a seat, not for the common good of their constituents anymore?

Makes sense given what is going on. Why should we vote anymore though.

/

Sorry I don't know how that post was SO BIG!

Why is Jeremy against the backstop?

Cos he's an opportunist fuck wit who is listening to the polls too much as he's a spineless popularist.

Nicola If we gave up voting, the parties would put in even worse
Well in those seats that don't already have a Boris / JRM / IDS / DD / Dorries / Patel .....
Imagine a Tory front bench full of JRM clones

Nice cover on the Speccy:

Mark Stone @stone_skynews
🇬🇧 @theresa_may & 🇪🇺 @eucopresident spoke tonight.
I am told by an EU official that the “open & frank” call was longer than expected. It started at 1845 and lasted for more than half an hour. /1

Mr Tusk told Mrs May that it’s clear what 🇬🇧 doesn’t want, but they still don’t have a clear idea of what it does want. The ‘alternative arrangements’ refered to in the Brady amendment don’t amount to a plan. /2

^.@theresa_may responded, says an EU official, by saying that the House of Commons has identified the issue that is problematic - the backstop.
Tusk said - yes but we don’t know how to solve that. /3^

Tusk continued by explaining that before 🇪🇺 can offer solutions, it needs to see 🇬🇧 suggestions and needs to know they can pass the House of Commons - that is the very first move before we can work forward.
Mrs May accepted that they have to work to provide something. /4

The two have agreed to remain in constant contact though no date set for meeting. /5

And that, is the end of that.

Brady = dead.

Two weeks til the next vote. May can't provide the EU with the answers its looking for in that time.

It's impossible.

Well no surprises there.

Coveney: "We have a guarantee and we intend holding the British government to those guarantees"

The RTE summarising his very plain-speaking radio interview

mobile.twitter.com/TodaySOR/status/1090571831415836673

He sounds totally exasperated with May
and I can visualise almost the whole EU nodding in agreement

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/britain-wants-it-both-ways-claims-coveney-1.3775794

Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney, has said
Irelandd* is being asked to compromise on a Brexitt* solution that works and to replace it with wishful thinking.

“We won’t do it,”

“The UK wants it both ways, no red lines and no backstop,” Mr Coveney said.

He accused the British government of using the negotiating tactics of a person who says ‘give me what I want or I’ll jump out the window.’

“We owe it to the people of Ireland, north and south.
We cannot approach this negotiation on the basis of threats.
“We have a negotiated outcome that is now not being followed through on.”^
...
“We have a guarantee and we intend holding the British government to those guarantees,”he said.
“We had an agreement here.
The prime minister signed up to it.”

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
EXCLUSIVE

Theresa May's chief Brexit negotiator Oliver Robbins sent emails advising that Govt should not back Brady amendment, sources tell Telegraph

He is said to have questioned whether EU is prepared to make significant legal changes to the backstop

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/30/oliver-robbins-warned-theresa-may-against-tory-plan-go-back/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Oliver Robbins warned Theresa May against Tory plan to go back to Brussels and renegotiate deal

Of course he fucking did. If you were an advisor to the EU on legal ramifications what the hell would you be telling them. It wouldn't be to leave yourself wide open to problems from the UK...