Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

{But a permanent CU means we can't ever strike our own trade deals (oh no - our glorious trade deals!) which then raises the question ... why bother leaving?}
A quick round of 'wheels of the Brexit go round and round'.*

• it is Mumsnet after all!

{All 3 parts of the EU would have to agree to dropping the backstop ... and all 3 say No}.
I think Treeza needs to fly to Brussels just to check that this 'NO' doesn't actually mean yes.

Patrick Macguire @patrickkmcguire
Corbyn tells Sky that it’s unacceptable that UK can’t unilaterally exit backstop. Two questions...

1) Backstop effectively provides the customs union that Labour wants. Why does not being able to leave it matter?

2) Lab policy is not to support backstop without x-community support in NI. Nationalists incl SDLP and others don’t want unilateral exit. Are we just ignoring this?

This all adds up to unsavoury truth that Labour, despite their poses to the contrary, are being just as cavalier in their approach to protecting the Good Friday Agreement as the Tories.

Matthew O'Toole @ MatthewOToole2
Corbyn's breach of trust with the NI majority on the backstop continues.

Corbyn is a dangerous popularist.

{ PerverseConverse Wed 30-Jan-19 18:06:44
I've lost the plot with everything happening since last night and now have no idea what's going on confused}

Don't worry. It is 'Groundhog day' but with a twist that Theresa puts a different jacket on every now and then.

Thanks for all these threads... I'm a long term lurker, not commenter...

But can someone please help me work this out....?

If the choice is between WA or No Deal, and if the British Border in Ireland is the bone of contention...does that mean we're going to come down to a choice between the backstop or a hard border? (presuming WA = backstop, No Deal = hard border?)

Is it just wishful thinking at this point to hope that revoke is still an available option?

newsthump.com/2019/01/30/britain-to-repeat-its-brexit-offer-loudly-and-slowly-until-the-foreigners-get-it/
Britain to repeat its Brexit offer loudly and slowly until the foreigners get it

Just watching Sky news and feeling depressed at the idiocy of those that are polled. Fewer people wanted to ha e a deal with backstop than deal without or no deal. Wtf are they thinking??

Unsurprising to anyone who read my previous posts on the LibDems - I agree wholeheartedly with Lonelyplanetmum.

As far as the LibDems’s ‘erasure of women’ goes, what will do more harm to women and children in this country, a hard Brexit all that brings for decades to come or (in your wildest imaginings) five years of LibDems?

does that mean we're going to come down to a choice between the backstop or a hard border? (presuming WA = backstop, No Deal = hard border?)

More or less, yes.

and all that brings.

Perverse it would be interesting to know if any of those polled could even tell you what the backstop is.

We need to keep reminding Leavers especially that
what May is trying / being instructed to do is to persuade the EU into bullying Ireland to accept a future hard border

So it's not plucky little Britain vs nasty big EU:
it's Britain wanting bigger EU to bully little Ireland - and claiming the EU is the bully for refusing.

All the other options would be either against WTO rules, or require the EU to dissolve the SM or itself

Tory Brexiters would not be so insistent the backstop be dropped unless they actually planned a future trade deal that would require a hard border.
Otherwise, they wouldn't say No Deal is better than having the backstop

Perverse that goes back to what I said this morning. May has not realised how many leavers now see no deal as the best option. All of the "news" is just "scaremongering"

cheeky WA without a backstop would also mean a hard border later ...
because otherwise why are Tory Brexiters - and Corbyn - so insistent they won't accept the WA with backstop

Zoe Williams finally made me understand our strategy towards Ireland:
Now he wants the benefits and, also, the cat. (The cat is Ireland – do try to keep up.) He tries to make it follow him by yelling at it.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/30/brexit-like-brutal-breakup-in-romcom-except-not-funny?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

perverse Brexiters and some remainers have got caught up in the nationalist chest-thumping hype that Tories have used as WMD for decades.

Look at the YouGov chart I posted and you see that a CU+SM Brexit is the most preferred / acceptable
when people aren't asked questions geared to spike chest-thumping.

Apologies if someone has already posted, need to catch up when I get home from work...

Latest from Peston...signs that Corbyn is moving away from PV and instead looking to get a Brexit Deal Labour can vote for in terms of amendments to the PD regarding workers rights, CU, etc.

www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2266812676976798/

No wonder NI think we don't care about them. I wonder who they actually ask? Do they get a handful of old people down the pub of a lunchtime? I'm not sure they use representative samples at all. Well, representative of the intellectually challenged perhaps.

Thanks, need to catch up....

I'm here, tick,tock,tick,tock.......

Pup recovering from operation....or is she just waiting for some dickhead in Parliament to grow some balls?

^WA without a backstop would also mean a hard border later ...
because otherwise why are Tory Brexiters - and Corbyn - so insistent they won't accept the WA with backstop^

But Corbyn wants a customs union which would not give us a hard border so whatever his issue with the backstop is I think it's wrong to suggest he is somehow angling for a hard border. I think it's more likely he is just being a bit stupid or thinks that if he pushes against the backstop he can persuade May to go for CU.

Best wishes to your lovely pup @Sostenueto

bigly You're right: with Corbyn I should always assume cockup rather than conspiracy

An Irishwoman's opinion

Aisling Donohuee@AislingTax*

It's really horrible to watch the British pin all of their hopes on the belief that your country doesn't actually matter.
Really horrible.

We do have a national identity crisis, but a lot of it is down to US not knowing what direction we want to take than anything the EU has done. There is a total lack of vision.

There is a total lack of vision because there is a total lack of inspirational leadership. May and Corbyn are both equally useless.

The country is in a complete and utter mess. Meanwhile David Bloody Cameron sits in his shiny £25,000 garden shed writing his shady memoirs, " How I F**d up the UK."