Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Looooooookkkk a Minister who knows what the hell is going on!!

I'm stupidly cheered by the thought that May has asked any question at all about revoking

You misread my post I didn't say she'd asked for advice, I asked what advice she'd been given. She doesn't need advice, as the Good Lord is guiding her through the valley of the shadow of death, and causes her to lie down in green pastures

etc
etc

(The question still stands, btw ...)

And he only got in because the LibDem vote collapsed

If UK voters insist on being spoiled children then this is the quality of representatives they get .

If you claim to want mature grown-up politics, and then cite 2010-2015 - in particular tuition fees - as the sole reason for not considering LibDem in future, I would suggest you are wrong on one count.

But then Brexit itself was really all about "giving the Tories a bloody nose", so maybe we're condemned to it ?

@DGRosetti

I'm confused now. You said

I'm wondering what the advice TM has been given about revoking A50 after 29th March is ? Because I know she's asked. It's almost a given, since no one is thinking it

If this was a joke I didn't get, all I can say is it's increasingly hard to spot jokes these days..

I'm doing the whole "don't look at the news and you might stay sane" thing.

might

Pretty I meant to ask how Scotland ended up with a KIpper
and not even one of the old Alan Sked types who sometimes had brains

No, not a joke.

When the whole world is talking about zigging, it's probably not a bad use of resources to look what zagging might do.

Everyone has been talking about revoking as it it's something which can only be done up till midnight on 29/3/2019. So much so, that it's simply an accepted fact - it's become received wisdom (and I did hesitate to use that word ).

Now I am as sure as anyone else here, that A50 means 2 years and you are out. No ifs, buts, maybes. But I am also as sure as anyone else here that I am not a lawyer. Let alone a lawyer trained in international law, treaties, and negotiation.

We already had to have the meaning of A50 clarified by the Supreme court and ECJ - so it's not quite "the cat sat on the mat" simple.

Hence the question. For all I know, there might be some weird construction of terms or interpretation of terms which means A50 doesn't just stop on 29th. Theresa May is really Humpty Dumpty, so it pays to be aware of as much as you can.

Oh Dest surely you gave up being sane years ago?

Surely the only way to revoke Article 50 would be by an Act of Parliament? (which takes a little more than 5 minutes even if it's rushed through)

EU adding to their No Deal Contingency Plan

Safeguards some things for Brit expats:

@TiP relevant for you iirc
any British student who has started ERASMUS by 30 March 2019 can complete their course

Also ensures E27 pension payments continue to British expats whether they stay in their host country or return to the UK

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-releaseIP-19-7433_en.htm

The Scottish European constituency returns 6 MEPs - last time it returned 2 SNP MEPs (including the lovely Alyn Smith of the chers amis speech ), on 390,000 votes (so "worth" 195,000 each), 2 Labour MEPs, on 348,000 votes (so "worth" 174,000 each), one Conservative on 231,000 votes and unfortunately one UKIP on 140,000. His vote went up 5.2% while the Lib Dem vote went down 4.4% (ended up on 95,000, behind the Greens on 108,00 ) .

It's a shame that scotland didn't manage to maintain its clean sheet of being anti-UKIP, but as I say, he is still the only elected UKIP representative in any capacity - and has proven that he is an embarrassing waste of space.

The PM only can Revoke, MPs if they were allowed to vote could to.... as far as I know.

Missbel No, Revoking does not remove any rights for UK citizens, unlike invoking
So, legally the HoC is not required.
May only needs to write to the EU Commission stating as PM that she revokes A50 and it is done

Unfortunately, although by far the simplest option, it is now v v unlikely

Article 50 was triggered as a result of the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017. I assume Parliament would need to revoke that Act in order to revoke Article 50 - I don't think the PM can unilaterally override an Act of Parliament - in peacetime at least, unless there was something in the wording of the Act.

But I'm no constitutional expert!

I wish it was possible to edit posts! If the PM could revoke it that would be good - if there was any sign she would use that power.

The Attorney General once stated that the HoC could force the govt to Revoke.

It is not that MPs were not allowed to propose an amendment to do this - and Bercow would have chosen it
They chose not to do so
because almost all put career and party ahead of preventing severe longterm damage to the country

There are almost no MPs prepared to stand up and vote for the Remain option
even if Wollaston's bill is not talked out / rejected

The most I hope for is that they vote for the WA when it returns - unchanged

Not entirely sure who exactly could do the revoking, but it is the UK Government who would have to let the EU know that they intended to revoke Article 50. I believe the ECJ ruling said that the decision would have to be made within the UK's own constitutional requirements but didn't specify exactly what those would have to be. The lawyers then interpreted that as Parliament directing the Government, in the same way that they did when the UK decided to leave. However, we don't have a constitution as such, so it could all get very messy! (What a surprise.)

Missbel No, legal opinion agrees that the HoC is not needed to Revoke.

They were only needed to Invoke because a court ruled that this must happen before citizens rights can be removed - and leaving the EU removes rights.

Since Remaining does not remove any rights, just keeps what we have, there is no need for an HoC vote

Margo As posted, only the PM can Revoke
That is our constitution

Thank you for that BCF . I hadn't realised Treezer had so much power. What a shame she doesn't put country above party.

“I've been mulling over why I find reading or hearing Revoke described as a unicorn annoying.
”

It’s the usual tactic of picking up the other side’s best known accusation(s) or definition and using it against them.
Hence the claim that socialists are fascists, for example.

Tom Boadle@TomBoadle

A High Court judge has ruled that Barclays can shift assets worth €190bn to its Irish division as it “cannot wait any longer” amid continuing political uncertainty.
....
The plans were drawn up by Barclays in case of a no-deal scenario which would see it losing “passporting” rights that allow them to provide services across Europe.

It is now preparing to activate that contingency plan.
....
The judgement, which was published yesterday, says:

“Due to the continuing uncertainty over whether there might be a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, the Barclays group has determined that it cannot wait any longer to implement the scheme.”
.....
It comes as the boss of the CBI @cbicarolynn^ warned:
"until MPs can agree a solution, the threat of no deal will continue to drain money from the UK."^

news.sky.com/story/barclays-prepares-to-trigger-eur190bn-no-deal-brexit-plan-11622383

You'd think the tax on moving £190 billion of assets around would fill Irish coffers nicely ?

my brain is working slowly...too much Brexit making it ache...but when Theresa May says that they only way to prevent leaving with No Deal is to vote for a/her deal, does that mean she is actually and knowingly lying through her miserable teeth? DP who is a down to earth farmer with little interest in political refinements keeps saying, "She's supposed to be intelligent, she can see it's a disaster, why doesn't she just stop it all...." I shall be agreeing with him from now on.