Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

DG As soon as May made her Lancaster House speech and then ruled out Norway++
she doomed the UK to breaking apart in the near future

Scotland and especilly Ireland will have serious problems with this accelerated breakup, especially when probably occurring during widespread civil disorder and economic meltdown

However, Westminster is manifestly not up to the task - morally, intellectually - of governing even England

PMK. Threads are moving too fast. Life is moving too fast. Stop the world, I want to get off.

It's good news.
Wollaston is at least trying.
Now let's see if her bill is talked out or has a chance of passing.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-final-say-peoples-vote-referendum-a8754336.html

Mr Cable on waiting for Jeremy....

David lammy got the blues but showing resilience.

I posted last thread how the New IRA are reportedly planning almost daily attacks after 29 March So no, they aren't more nuanced now

Is there a source for this story? thanks

There seems to be paid up terrorists working to promote brexit. Some interesting citizen journalism has been done on that Goddard fellow and his network, he has been linked to another ring leader in the gilet jaunts.

Violent, dangerous and abusive fascists from Leave means Leave were creating mayhem in large numbers outside parliament yesterday, and outside the premises of pro Remain business Pimlico Plumbers.

MPs are seeing the mayhem and chaos outside of their work place everyday.

I have no doubt that many MPs are being scared into voting through legislation they would not have supported if they hadn't been terrorised by these yobs.

I have no idea why these terrorist thugs are not arrested.

^f there is No Deal, I do fear our enemies - Russia, IS, assorted bastards - will take the opportunity to launch attacks:

A bad idea to make the UK uniquely vulnerable among Western countries - ^ Putin was clearly looking to exploit the divisions over the EU, probably even before the referendum was called. I suspect that, while acts of terror will continue, far more insidious will be attempts to control and subvert both commercial and political processes in this country. I couldn't - and still can't understand - why Putin's support for Leave (which was openly declared by him at the time) didn't make more people question it.

And good news about Sarah Wollaston. I hope that the oderates on all sides can do something with that.

*Moderates

I have no doubt that many MPs are being scared into voting through legislation they would not have supported if they hadn't been terrorised by these yobs.

So we longer live in a functioning democracy then. If that is the case, why should citizens respect - or obey - the law ?

and still can't understand - why Putin's support for Leave (which was openly declared by him at the time) didn't make more people question it.

Hitler liked dogs and hated smoking, so not all bad then.

Apparently Obama saying we would go to the bottom of the list for trade deal negotiations was much worse than Putin supporting Leave

If you take the view that both the USA and Russia want to 'attack' the EU for admittedly slightly different purposes, persuading the UK which had influence in the EU but a significant Eurosceptic streak and a 'non team player' demeanor is an ideal tool to do it with. Large enough to make a difference but not so large as to be a significant threat. Blinded by 'exceptionalism' it has only taken a bit of a push to set things in motion.
Grease a few palms here and there, a bit of 'thuggery' to give it impetus and the job almost does itself. The likes of the ERG with the prospect of making millions personally just helps the process along.
The Chinese approach to world domination appears to be a bit more subtle in that it's people mingle with local society. Being helpful with loans to near bankrupt governments, offering to build much needed infrastructure thereby getting it's hooks into the fabric of so many countries. Sabre rattling and shows of power, mostly on it's own soil as a 'deterrent' to those who think defaulting might be an option.
Where the world is going I have no idea. Where the UK is going is also very uncertain.

Mixedability Links to "New IRA" threat

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6635723/Elderly-former-IRA-terrorists-coaxed-retirement-exploit-Brexit-tensions.html

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-nireland-blast/ira-claims-responsibility-for-londonderry-car-bomb-idUKKCN1PN1L0?rpc=401&

How to reduce stress and find a bit if calm in the middle of this mess...

The Chinese approach to world domination appears to be a bit more subtle in that it's people mingle with local society. Being helpful with loans to near bankrupt governments, offering to build much needed infrastructure thereby getting it's hooks into the fabric of so many countries. Sabre rattling and shows of power, mostly on it's own soil as a 'deterrent' to those who think defaulting might be an option.

Can't recall where I read it (I have eclectic tastes. And that's just the legal ones ...) but someone recently returned from a trip across Africa, and noted that almost all the cement and building materials was marked in Chinese.

As an earlier beneficiary of the advantages of being united, the US appears to have set itself on a world mission to pull the ladder up after itself. Hence hating a United Socialist Soviet Republic. The European Union. And doing all it can to ensure there can never be a united middle East, South America or Africa. Waving the phobia of "communism" and allying itself with all manner of strange bedfellows, from tyrants, drug dealers, mass murderers, and all points in between.

All of that said, history rarely throws up one offs (I found myself recently wondering how many times the wheel had to be invented before it became a thing) but a series of gently turning cycles and subcycles. If the US are doing it now, they probably learned it from the British doing it then. Who in turn learned it from the French and Spanish, who learned if from the Moors who learned it from the Byzantines who were the legacy of the Roman Empire who learned it from the Carthaginians, who learned it from Egypt.

If we have to have Brexit, and if I have to die, please let it be as an intellectual quoting Bentham, or similar.

Hey - fun new game for all the family with todays exciting Express. Why not design your own "Brexit patches" to be sewn to traitors of your choice ? Best designs could win an all expenses paid holiday in Cornwall.

I've been mulling over why I find reading or hearing Revoke described as a unicorn annoying.

besides the obvs I want to remain.

We've fallen so far down the void that a legal article has been given the same status as a Brexiteer's wet dream. Its that, that I don't want to believe. I'm ok if MPs or the PM choose not to use the legal framework which stops brexit. It's dumb of them but whatever. However to have the legal framework discredited by association of unicorn wet dreams I find annoying. Revoke may be unlikely in betting stakes but it's plausible due to the legal framework we are all tied to. We may not use the laws, acts, articles available to us but they still exists and to believe otherwise takes us somewhere else that I don't want to be.

Thank you BigChocFrenzy the Daily Mail article is interesting, it looks like a dad's army IRA. The youngsters who've grown up in peace and in the EU will be much too sensible for it!
Elderly former IRA terrorists are being brought out of 'retirement' to exploit tensions in Northern Ireland over Brexit

We definitely do have a terrorism problem in Britain, but I'd say it's mainly extremist right wing Leave means Leave thugs and their friends who are the main ones, and they seem to have a free pass.

I'm wondering what the advice TM has been given about revoking A50 after 29th March is ? Because I know she's asked. It's almost a given, since no one is thinking it (until now) which is usually how things have emerged out of the gloom so far.

Yes, I know, but I think it needs to be looked at, and either dismissed, or expanded. Bearing in mind we are into angels on the heads of pins level of detail which I would wager only 30 people in the world are capable of (slight pause, as Lord Kerr says yes, I was wondering who the other 29 were )

Look at the hand ...look at the hand ... look at the hand ..... (everyone looks .... points to back of room) Wow, how did that card get there ?!

Pretty strong words from Barnier at the European Parliament just now:

"the Irish border is going to be our new external border, and what is at stake is the prtection of all consumers and covenants in the union"

"I find it hard to accept this blame game that they are trying to play against us"

"We will do nothing, simple as that - nothing to compromise the integrity of the single market"

"Calmly and clearly, I will say here and now - we need this backstop, as it is."

EU Parliament. To a man all EU speakers are brilliant. David Coburn UKIP just been told off for yowling out abuse. So embarrassing.
www.pscp.tv/w/1djGXOMDkmOKZ
Guy Verhofstadt on now.

what the advice TM has been given about revoking A50 after 29th March is ? Because I know she's asked

I'm stupidly cheered by the thought that May has asked any question at all about revoking.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
NEW:
Government minister trashes so-called Tory Peace Deal brokered by MP Kit Malthouse, backed by ERG and pointed to by PM at PMQs.

Releases memo saying it “does not deliver an open border in Ireland”... and Plan A is max fac “already considered and rejected” by both parties

memo, seen by Sky News, and written by Industry Minister Richard Harrington also says “There is no such thing as a managed no-deal” - a key part of the peace plan. He says 10 year GATT A24 suggestion “based on misinterpretation of an obscure GATT provision not used for 25 yrs”

Harrington nearly quit yesterday to vote for Cooper-Boles. He didn't of course.

I am soooooooooooooooooo ashamed that the odious, execrable David Coburn supposedly represents Scotland

...the only consolation is that he is the sole , the only elected UKIP representative in any capacity anywhere in Scotland

And he only got in because the LibDem vote collapsed