Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Thanks Bigchoc👍🏻

And so the mayhem continues....😞

mother I'd rather have the hope of something better in a few years than choose total disaster in a few weeks

Of course the WA is only possibilities, good & poor, no certainty

A50 is only about the mechanics of leaving and settling obligations
No trade deal could ever be agreed in the 2 years of A50 and it was never intended for that purpose

news.sky.com/story/barclays-prepares-to-trigger-190bn-no-deal-brexit-plan-11622383

Barclays prepares to trigger €190bn no-deal Brexit plan
A High Court judge has largely approved a "huge" scheme by the bank to reorganise part of its business ahead of Brexit.

PMK

Steven Swinford
‏*@Steven*_Swinford

New:

Downing Street indicates that Olly Robbins remains PM’s chief Brexit negotiator.

Crawford Falconer and Julian Braithwaite are NOT being drafted into negotiating team despite calls by Tory Eurosceptics.

Striking because ERG say they were given assurance on this by No 10

Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford

New:

Downing Street indicates that Olly Robbins remains PM’s chief Brexit negotiator.

Crawford Falconer and Julian Braithwaite are NOT being drafted into negotiating team despite calls by Tory Eurosceptics.

Striking because ERG say they were given assurance on this by No 10

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
@DominicRaab told me last night on @skynews that he wanted the civil servants to be replaced by senior cabinet ministers for the backstop set of negotiations. That's a No then

louise warning & predicting of disaster is because we do NOT want it to happen

Warning friends & family about the dangers of smoking doesn't mean we gloat when the lung cancer or heart attack occurs

Raab "wanted the civil servants to be replaced by senior cabinet ministers for the backstop set of negotiations" 😂🤦🏻‍♀️

Apparently May retains some vestige of backbone & realism

If you take a world view of Brexit you start to see that it is pretty small in the grand scheme of things.
Standing in the UK and thinking like a Brit, you think that it is big, but with the wars in Syria and elsewhere, and the failure of Venezuela you appreciate that bad shit does happen and that the UK has got a long way to fall from it's comfortable 'high earning' status. Downtown Stoke may be bad, but there is a NHS and Universal Credit, however bad that may be. Syria was not 'backward' mud hut peasant lands, but highly developed modern society so to think it can't happen to the UK is wrong.

{Humour getting increasingly blacker...}
I suspect I could give DGRosetti a run for his money but I am trying to keep it light and not get banned.

I think young people will reverse it in the future.

My lot have lost respect for their older relatives. They didn't get to vote last time but they are now all old enough to vote.

{"A few cases of what looks like novichok (whether is or isn't actually) appearing on March 30...."}
Do not mistake what I say for me wishing anything bad to happen. I am merely pointing out that ANY form of panic can have disastrous effects.
I categorically do not want anyone to be hurt in any way, which is infinitely better than those who are wanting a 'no deal' where unfortunately people WILL die unnecessarily, due to mistakes made in a rush. An ambulance arriving 5 minutes too late, very simple but unfortunately catastrophic.
If you are carrying your small child upstairs, there is a POSSIBILITY that you can stumble and drop them. An absolute nightmare. Being aware of the possibility and doing all you can to prevent accidents is the best you can do.

On that latest post I agree with LeClerc, that a country's future prosperity and security is far from guaranteed and that any country could fall a long way.

If only...
waterfordwhispersnews.com/2019/01/30/british-parliament-sectioned-under-the-mental-health-act/

I haven't really posted about this before, but
if there is No Deal, I do fear our enemies - Russia, IS, assorted bastards - will take the opportunity to launch attacks:

poisonings, bombings and especially hacking, drones

It is an increasing complex & damgerous world with very dangerous people
A bad idea to make the UK uniquely vulnerable among Western countries - rather like jackals picking out the animal in the herd that stray away and look sudenly weaker

Do not mistake what I say for me wishing anything bad to happen. I am merely pointing out that ANY form of panic can have disastrous effects.

There can be a problem in discussions in mixed-ability groups, where some people either cannot (or will not ) separate discussion from advocacy, and think because someone says something - or understands it - means they are automatically endorsing it or supporting it. There has a been a lot of discussion about the return of violence to NI in this thread, with some understanding and insight. None of which means anyone here in any way would condone such a state of affairs.

I'm not sure where this phenomena comes from, but it has a vague quasi-religous feel to it. Certainly, I've been in discussions where even daring to correct someone on a point of fact has elicited an accusation of being on "their" side.

It's one of the reasons sane voices and reason disappear in the face of things like the Brexiteer bawl where it's better to be wrong and loud than right and quiet. It's also why it's impossible to deliver evidence based policy.

Queen 😂😭
Sadly, after little interest in Brexit for 2 years, the HoC and May have been become prime entertainment ni the continent
I keep being asked to explain our electoral system, PM powers, HoC, HoL - "but you mean you are ruled by Lords ?!"

For QueenMabby's link:

"It’s called a ‘collective mental state’. Essentially the entire parliament has caught a contagious case of dumbfounding irrational behaviour"

That is an honest to goodness fact right there. I think I'm going to go find some cake now.

I haven't really posted about this before, but if there is No Deal, I do fear our enemies - Russia, IS, assorted bastards - will take the opportunity to launch attacks: poisonings, bombings and especially hacking, drones

(Wry smile at who's not on that list ...)

I don't think "attacks" like that are the way of the future. Not when there are far more effective and less wasteful weapons at hand.

Arguably the UK is already under attack, anyway. Just hasn't realised it yet.

A good "gotcha" question on QI a while back was "When did the second world war start ?" which sounds easy, and indeed the "1939 !" answer seemed so correct. But, as the nice Mr Fry (first against the wall when the revolution comes, no doubt) pointed out, "1939" is merely the point at which Britain declared war on the Axis (although explicitly naming Germany). Which is a rather anglocentric - and debatable - date. It's entirely possible (and some do) to view the elevation of Hitler to Chancellor as the key date - or the invasion of Hungary. Meaning that by the time the British pitched up to give a demonstration of synchronised retreating, the war was already a few years old.

Food for thought here from Paul Brannen MEP

Looks like DBS needs overhauling.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47054647

@LonelyandTiredandLow

Excellent link, so good it deserves to be repeated here, for non-FBers (yes, they exist !)

View Edit History
Paul Brannen MEP

Yes, I do lose my job if the UK goes ahead and leaves the EU. You’d be surprised as to how many people are under the impression that the contingent of 73 UK Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) will continue to sit in the European Parliament in Brussels to represent our country’s interests after Brexit happens. The reality is quite the opposite. Instead of the UK holding around 10% of the seats in one of the world’s most influential parliaments our voice, our views and our expertise will be gone.

If current demographic trends persist the population of France will continue to fall while the German population will flat line. Meanwhile the UK population will continue to rise with projections suggesting the UK will become the biggest country in Europe by the middle of the century, if not earlier, a position currently held by Germany. So not only are we set to diminish our influence in the world by walking away from a leading role in the EU, we are also walking away from the imminent opportunity of being the biggest player in the EU and everything that goes with it. It is madness.

Meanwhile as the UK political class drive themselves into ever increasing degrees of Brexit frenzy, the French President and the German Chancellor were last week calmly signing a new treaty of co-operation. One of the many reasons why our EU colleagues have always valued the UK’s membership of the EU is that it has acted as a counterweight to the dominance of the Franco-German axis. But with the English, and it is really the English driving Brexit not the Scottish, vacating the field of play we can hardly expect Macron and Merkel to simply give up playing as well.

Speaking of Angela Merkel, she won’t fight another election. With Macron’s grip on power visibly shaky the leadership of Europe may well be entering a state of great flux and all that goes with it. This was the UK’s opportunity to move into the driving seat, instead we are getting out of the car. Theoretically this spells a moment of opportunity for the larger Eastern European countries who joined the
EU relatively recently in 2004 - Poland, Romania, and Hungary can all be expected to play a greater role. For instance after the May 2019 elections Romania, rather than Germany, France or the UK could have the largest contingent of socialist MEPs putting them in a dominant position in the wider Socialist Group – currently the second largest political group in the Parliament.

A tip in power and influence towards the Eastern European countries will be a mixed blessing. They may rise to the challenge, champion democracy and make great strides in rediscovering their pre 1945 European roots. On the other hand the authoritarian anti-democratic stance of the current governments of Poland and Hungary might be built on bringing them into increasing conflict with the wider EU.

Meanwhile instead of being full Europeans we are going to … well, exactly what is the UK going to do? To start with we will turn in on ourselves in a self-inflicted state of siege as we stand defiant (and unnecessarily) against the EU. The Scottish National Party, led by Nicola Sturgeon, will then carefully pick their moment for a further Scottish independence referendum which this time they’ll most likely win. Maybe not by much, but then if less than two per cent of the popular vote is enough to take the UK out of the EU then it’s good enough to take Scotland out of the UK (and back into the EU).

Across the Irish Sea it will take a few years longer but a united Ireland will soon heave into view as Northern Ireland’s demographics shift towards it. Again a 52% majority in both the North and the South will be enough, the will of the people and all that.

I therefore expect in my lifetime that if the UK does leave the EU it will relatively quickly lead to the break up of the UK, will create an independent Scotland in the EU and a united Ireland also inside the EU. Is this what we want, what we really, really want?

Highlighting the potential issues of a plan, or lack of one, doesn't mean one is suggesting the issues are a good thing.
A risk assessment is just that, not an endorsement of the risk.
I think the myth of exceptionalism is the most dangerous thing at play here.
Many people in the UK just haven't looked at the country from outside enough.
It is very depressing indeed.

Meanwhile, looks like NI might be dragged into the 21st century anyway ... which just makes the whole DUP thing more nonsensical

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47058629

A woman who is trying to change Northern Ireland's abortion law, with a case based on her personal experience, has begun her High Court challenge.

(contd)

I also feel I should say that it's disgusting she is being forced to bring this case individually - with all that entails - because of some legal frippery.

LOVE that queenmabby!!!

DG Putin and assorted terrorists are neanderthals who must believe that bombings and mass murder have their place, since they still use these tactics

Of course Putin is happy also to fund his Bot Center, while not giving up the poisoning etc