Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

@Motheroffourdragons , single market and customs union means accepting Freedom of Movement. I rather think avoiding that is what this shit is all about.

If there is no majority for no deal in the house why didn’t Cooper’s amendment go through?

Because a majority not wanting to do something does not equal a majority to do something else. Currently there is no majority in the house for anything.

Last night's votes was a clear should of "I don't want to!" It was not however any sort of indication of what we do want to do.

*should = shout

Thanks Bigchoc

But is no deal not unlawful in a way? (breaks GFA rules?)

Sorry i'm thick

UK and Russia sign MoU on Regulatory Cooperation on Medicines
Medicines regulators of the UK and Russian set out key principles to support their collaboration on improving public health.

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-russia-sign-mou-on-regulatory-cooperation-on-medicines

James Patrick 🐐
‏*@J*_amesp
Seems like the only logical way to deal with a country that used chemical weapons on you only a year ago, in the midst of a data driven hybrid war:

Actually that is a bit inaccurate. There was an indication of what we want to do, but that thing is impossible, so may as well be ignored.

Thank you Scandaloso.

Another aspect to all this mess where everyone is whipping themselves into a lather, is that on 30 March the UK will need a government with a crystal clear view of where it is heading.
Whether in/out/sideways there must be a near consensus of what the UK is going to do. It won't have one.
A few cases of what looks like novichok (whether is or isn't actually) appearing on March 30 will cause untold chaos, similarly any other 'disturbance'. The gyroscope holding the UK upright is getting close to stalling and it wouldn't take much for some mischief makers to take it over the edge.

Today I have been negotiating with my speech delayed toddler to eat his dinner. It's a frustrating process. He can't tell me what he wants, assuming he even knows - he just refuses what I offer, even when it's something he likes normally.

EU negotiating team - solidarity with you, my friends.

In the upside: DHs job is listed as being in demand in Ireland, and that's also what I'm trying to learn how to do (it's a self-teachable thing). So there's that.

Would still much rather not go, but it's good to have options.

Sorry i'm thick

Not thick at all! I honestly don't think anyone has a really clear idea of what the hell is going on right now. I suspect you know more about it at the moment than a reasonable proportion of MPs for example.

Could someone explain to me why no deal is an option at all since the EU has made it clear that it will require a hard border in Ireland? Surely that's not an acceptable option? Thanks I agree that it is not an acceptable option but apparently it's acceptable to the EU. Parliament voted by a narrow margin last night to say that no deal should be off the table.

mother There were not enough MPs wanting an extension to vote for Cooper.

You are betting that disaster won't happen because an HoC of cowards, careerist and batshitters will suddenly vote to end their careers (at least on the Tory side)

The PD in the WA would still allow SM+CU.
It is non-binding which allows for opinion in the UK to change

If opinion hasn't changed by then, it certainly won't change within the next few weeks
We are where we are, not where you want us to be

I know you hate the NI backstop, however No Deal does NOT get rid of the backstop

After a No Deal Brexit, the EU will not negotiate trade with the UK until it agrees to have everything in the WA; including the backstop
(There might be an NI-only backstop instead, which would give NI even more advantage over Scotland)

The UK would have to sign up to everything, then negotiate a trade deal from a dreadfully weak position, with the economy collapsing,
whereas under the WA we'd negotiate during transition while still enjoying curent EU benefits

I don't want the UK to be put in such a terrible negotiating position
It would be humiliating and we would be totally relying on EU mercy

any Tory who voted for that would have had their career wrecked
I can't believe any of them seriously think they can get out of Brexshit with their career intact.

Recently I have taken to shouting at BBC news at 10. They always seem to have a news item about a heavily leave area, where people have never voted before the referendum, so their opinion matters more than mine. (This always makes me apoplectic.) The piece invariably ends with how unspecified off-screen remain voters all just want politicians to get on with Brexit and get out of the EU. DH is worried about me.

{Seems like the only logical way to deal with a country that used chemical weapons on you only a year ago, in the midst of a data driven hybrid war:}
A new version of Russian roulette?
A crate of insulin but one phial is a nerve agent.

DG, I used to think May would have to resign after a revoke but now I’m not so sure.
We live in strange times.

Hasenstein
As I understand it, we are in the process of implementation and there are several stages we are supposed to hit by certain deadlines to comply.
By 2020 ‘members are expected to have implemented the full structure of the new taxation requirements’

So obviously it’s being kicked down the line until then.
AFAIK, the regulations concerning offshore tax avoidance schemes are one of the last to be required to come into force (logically as effective implementation depends on earlier structures being in place).

They’ve still got time to move the bodies

This thread moves so fast and I’m off to work now but will be back to catch up this evening.

Also, Remain is certainly not dead in Westminster - it’s the passion that dare not speak its name!

derxa The EU has to abide by WTO rules
it either has an external border, or it disbands its SIngle Market and then probably itself.

The only solutions without a backstop would be:

• The UK agrees an SM+CU trade deal with the EU - which the UK refuses
• or Irexit - which Ireland refuses

stop demanding the EU either breaks WTO or breaks up

Instead, the UK - which started all this - should take responsibility

Ok BigChoc I get it.

If there is No Deal, then the EU will demand the UK signs the backstop before trade negotiations begin
Quite possibly so will other countries, even the US Congress

Ireland can anyway veto any future UK trade deal, as these have to be approved unanimously within the EU.

If Ireland accepted a hard border to get the WA, then it would stay for ever.
By holding out, Ireland can reasonable hope any hard border will be very temporary

Thanks Red

Tangentially, I find myself stifling a (slightly hysterical) giggle at the word Brexiteer

It’s such a thorough misnomer for people who, having lied flounced and fluked their way to a surprise win, have spent two and a half years delivering fuck all (David Davis anyone?)
Pioneer, Volunteer, Buccaneer, Mountaineer, Engineer...

Sleight I prefer Brexshiters.

I’m veering between anger and despair and I’m doing something I’ve never done before - engaging with Leavers I don’t know on Facebook. I might be about to go full-on Destiel.

Quitlings is a good one given the potentially treacherous nature of the proposed No Deal disaster.

A new version of Russian roulette?
A crate of insulin but one phial is a nerve agent.

This made me laugh, LeClerc. Humour getting increasingly blacker...

Tin foil hat (or is it?).

Russia are the biggest part of this. The coming EU tax laws have just provided the opportunity. With the aim of asset stripping the UK and the bonus of destabilizing the EU.

The Tories are just being used and are too stupid to realise it. It's far easier to get your way by manipulating people's greed than appealing to their finer instincts.

They won't be the EMA that's for sure. Although I am interested in their Phages . I was sure they were a hoax for a long time, they look fake and robotic more than anything else. However I did see a documentary on them about a year ago and they do seem to be legit (well as much as their 'studies' say so anyway). Maybe we've been sold these as a fix for our NHS?

.....and still the insults fly...! "quitlings"; "brexshit"; "brexshitters"

Even more alarming, there are seemingly some posters this thread who are doing little to suggest that they would other than welcome a return to violence in NI or other areas of the UK, or more novichok attacks

"A few cases of what looks like novichok (whether is or isn't actually) appearing on March 30...."