I am thinking EU should lift their backstop demand (Irish MNers?)

[YeOldeTrout]

Bear with me, I'm a rabid pro-EU person & Remainer, actually.

But if UK leaves on 'No Deal' we're going to have hard border in Ireland from 29/30 March 2019, anyway. If EU allows removal of backstop, there's (how ever long) transition period of UK abiding by GFA and no hard border, until end 2020 or end 2021 maybe. GFA may be screwed over after that given the parlous talents of UK to negotiate with EU, but at least there's a few extra yrs of peace and stability in Ireland first.

I know it's not EU policy to be like children 'kick the can down the road', but it's the lesser of evils, if removing Backstop demand could get WA approved by UK Parliament now.

EU will only lift Backstop if Ireland agrees. Would Ireland prefer hard-border. Is EU too proud? EU should only do this with mega-plans about supporting Ireland in threatened legal action of GFA violated at end of transition period.

Thoughts from Irish (including Norn) MNers?

Its nothing to do with EU pride. The EU would be sacrificing Ireland, an EU member state if it removed the backstop. It should not fall for blackmail like this.

The GFA is predicated on the fact that the UK is in the EU.

So the UK should not be leaving the EU. As it is, it needs to remain in an arrangement that as closely replicates being in the EU as possible. The Brexiteers moaning about the backstop need to understand this fact. I really don't think it's that difficult to understand. We should be remaining in the customs union as an absolute minimum.

Of course, a more statesmanlike approach would be to say "the Irish issue cannot be resolved by leaving the EU, so we won't".

Also - what the hell they thought they were doing invoking Art 50 while the Northern Irish Assembly was suspended god only knows.

NI wants the backstop, we need the backstop. We need to stay in a customs union at the very least with ROI, for trade, for people who live and work across the border and for peace.
The DUP does not speak for all of NI and right at this moment does not even speak for its own voters.

The Malthouse Compromise is an utter crock as well. If anyone thinks there is anything substantially new in it, they are much mistaken.

Breaking down it's two parts:

Part A - is about the extension of the transition period. Well, that already exists and can in fact go to 2022, so this new proposal would actually reduce that time?!!!!!

Part B - is trying to pretend it is proposing an alternative or new backstop, relying on high tech solutions for customs, on goods regulations some kind of mutual conformity done in warehouses and on agricultural goods checks away from the border - so basically some kind of future trade agreement vaguely along the lines of the Canada model. All sounds plausible, but there is no technology in place and there is no trade agreement in place, nor the imminent liklihood of it happening anytime soon.

Plus, there is the small issue of the EU having unequivocally stating that they are not going to reopen the withdrawal agreement.

FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What is this shit about 'EU pride'

It's an international fucking treaty we're talking about. It's serious. Do you not get that?

I'm saying this with hope that it will never happen, but I think a return to 'The Troubles' and a bombing on English soil, might knock some sense into a few politicians heads as to what exactly they're dealing with when messing with the GFA. We've already had one bombing in Derry, claimed to be from the 'New' IRA. Though what the point of that was I can't fathom. I've always said it, there are violent people out there, just waiting for an excuse to vamp up violence again. They may have downed arms, but they never disbanded.
Gerry Adams seems to me, reading between the lines, to have kept a heavy hand on paramilitaries on the Irish side, but now he's retired. The other fella, can't remember his name, but he died a couple of years ago, would also have had influence over these groups. They were all involved in prolonged negotiations over years to stop the violence. Without them at the helm anymore, I think there is a fairly high risk, that breakaway groups will emerge at the mere hint of Ireland being fucked with.

And I also feel, that NI paramilitary groups haven't settled into calm and peaceful lives either.

There is one group I know of called the 32 county sovereignty movement, still active. In what form I don't know, but I came across them through work, and they actually have a facebook page.

Hadn't heard of the new IRA until that bombing, but I do know, again through work and an ex, that there are regular meetings between former paramilitary supporters. An Poblacht is one publication that exists in Ireland. An ex (long time ex) used to distribute this magazine or newspaper or whatever it was, and also used to march with balaclavas on at funerals of ex IRA.

So it might not be out in the open, but these groups are still in existence.

Britain seems to have a short memory. That's all I'm saying.

Thought Maggie was a screw loose but Dickless Dave is something else.
The British created the fecking border in Ireland in the first place and now they just want to be allowed to walk away and pretend it's not their problem, just like they did with Kashmir.
I'm British and thoroughly ashamed of the Tories.

The backstop is there because if the GFA commitment undertaken by both countries to avoid a hard border.
Ireland ratified GFA for its part by amending its constitution. It had a legally binding referendum before it did so - that being how the constitution gets changed.
So it would appear that the will of the people in Ireland was in favour of GFA. But it would appear that "the will of the people " only counts if you have an advisory referendum in tbe UK.
So, op, No.

I cannot comprehend the level of wilful bloody ignorance shown regarding NI/ROI by many British people.

And the casually given, utterly moronic suggestions as to how someone, anyone other than the UK govt, needs to ‘just’ do some utterly ridiculous thing, often in breach of international law, to sort out the UK govt’s mess.

So depressing.

Do they not realise the stakes or do they just not give a shit?

Do they not realise the stakes or do they just not give a shit?

A little from column A, a little from column B.

I cannot comprehend the level of wilful bloody ignorance shown regarding NI/ROI by many British people.

I think you could probably reduce that statement down to wilful bloody ignorance to sum up Brexit. If people had actually understood our relationship with the EU/the GRA etc surely we wouldn't be in this mess.

On the other hand my MiL who is from Fermanagh and whose father was killed in the troubles voted to leave despite various people myself and dh included trying to point out it's implications.

I'm not Irish but I remember the times of the Troubles and it was horrendous. Every day it seemed there were reports of innocent people, including children, being shot or blown up.I still remember reading about Patrick Rooney, the little boy who died in his own bedroom. It was heartbreaking.How can you not be safe in your own bedroom FGS?!

And the violence wasn't just in Ireland, but in other parts of the UK too I remember the Birmingham pub bombings where 21 died, the Harrods bomb which killed 6 including a young Express reporter, Airey Neave, MP blown up in his car at the House of Commons , 4 soldiers killed and 7 horses so badly injured they had to be shot, after the blast at Hyde Park. And there were more atrocities besides. I can't believe anyone would want to go back to those days.

The referendum was a huge mistake. We were not fully informed. Worse still, the government did not fully inform themselves. What the hell were they thinking of? I don't remember anything at all being said about Northern Ireland or the GFA, and the risk of jeopardising peace, not even in David Cameron's 9 million pound leaflet. But then he was so arrogant in his belief that everyone would vote for the status quo, he never once sat down to consider what would happen if there was a majority vote to leave, and the consequences for Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

I don't know what the answer is to the current shitshow, apart from the obvious one. We should not be leaving the EU if in the process, it jeopardises the GFA and peace in Northern Ireland. There has been what some describe as a "fragile" peace in Ireland for 20 years.It needs to stay that way, for all our sakes.

How about England & Wales dissolve the union with NI and Scotland?

Nice wee border at Hadrians Walls with no issue over reigniting Terror - Scotland gets independence and stays in EU, NI stay within the EU and England and Wales get to keep the Tories - sounds like win win for Scotland & NI

The EU aren't willing to throw NI and Ireland to the wolves but the government of the UK is. I would be apoplectic with rage if I lived there. When people talk about how awful the EU is, they're the only ones between us and the cliff.

What use is sovereignty when the people in charge are so stupid, weak and self-serving.

GFA may be screwed over after that given the parlous talents of UK to negotiate with EU, but at least there's a few extra yrs of peace and stability in Ireland first.

Bloody hell. Really?

I cannot for the live of me see the UK give up NI. The majority of Scotlands vote at the time of the Brexit referendum was for a stay. If the UK decides to try and offload NI, it will give Scotland more power to leave the UK. That would lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom.

BWrose it’s up the people of NI to decide if they wish to remain in the U.K. The UK govt is (or is supposed to be) a neutral arbiter in that. If the NI Sec of State thinks that there might be a chance of a vote in favour of reunification, he/she is supposed to call a border poll - at least that’s what’s set out in the GFA.

I cannot for the live of me see the UK give up NI.

Er, isn't that up to NI ?

The UK is sitting on a magic "get out of Brexit jail free card" courtesy of the ECJ court ruling that confirmed we can revoke Article 50 at any time, unilaterally, without the EU being able to block it. And if we do, we get to stay full members under exactly the same terms as before, including keeping our vetos, rebates and opt-outs.

The EU isn't trying to inflict Brexit on us. We are doing it to ourselves. So it's not up to the EU to square the circle because our politicians are too frightened - or too craven - to admit that what they're calling for requires unicorns.

We got ourselves into this mess. We have the power to get out of it any time. Meanwhile the EU has a responsibility to defend and protect the interests of its members. Until recently, that included us too (it still could). But it definitely includes Ireland. So it is acting responsibly by not putting at risk the Irish peace process, and not allowing situations to develop that would reward our utter irresponsibility, while endangering an EU member.

What I can't fathom is why the Brexit supporters want the EU and Remainers to find a solution. They're the ones convinced this is doable. Let them do it, with no loss of peace or trade.

Good luck.

@YeOldeTrout

1. GFA may be screwed over after that given the parlous talents of UK to negotiate with EU, but at least there's a few extra yrs of peace and stability in Ireland first.

In the event of the UK reneging on an international agreement (GFA) overseen and brokered by the EU and the US, why, oh why, would any nation take the UK's word for anything????

And personally, after 20 years of peace, I'm not about to agree to "a few extra yrs" just so the UK can jump itself off a cliff. I'd rather stick to the current imperfect, adequate and literally life-saving arrangement we already have.

1. but it's the lesser of evils, if removing Backstop demand could get WA approved by UK Parliament now

The lesser of what evil and on whom will that 'evil' be visited?

Removing the backstop leaves the evil (your word) of Brexit at someone else's doorstep.....the UK made a democratic decision to leave the EU without a full consideration of the wide implications of that decision ; in particular, in this instance, the implications for the UK's commitments under the GFA and their moral commitments to their citizen's living in Northern Ireland.

1. EU will only lift Backstop if Ireland agrees.

I suspect that the EU might be less flexible on the backstop, than the UK imagines......even if it were within Ireland's ability to agree to lift the backstop (it's not- we signed that international treaty also- and, a lot of our international power comes from a reputation as honest brokers) I imagine that the EU is (at this stage) less flexible than you might imagine.

1. Would Ireland prefer hard-border

Nope Is EU too proud? Nope. What does this even mean?

Been at work all day so only just back.
I actually agree with almost all you're saying :).
Not the part when I'm pretty much being called a cunt, but the substantial points.

I just want to correct the impression that I was saying EU should throw RoI under a bus. Instead, I was thinking of scenario where RoI wanted the indefinite limits removed from backstop. EU should deffo back what (member-state) RoI wants 100%, but RoI might decide to limit damage (that Uk is hellbent on, can't seem to stop self from doing, somebody in this relationship have to be an adult).

I'm surprised no one described this as a game of chicken. That's what I realised on commute. Who will blink first? How ridiculous of UK to play adversarial & chicken games with a close trade & security partner.

And in other news, did NONE of the amendments pass 2nite? Sheesh.

Maybe not one called this a game of chicken, because thats bullshit, nonsense talk. No one in NI or RoI sees it as a game.