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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
59
DGRossetti · 25/01/2019 10:54

(Annoying MN doesn't allow editing)

...

There is however, a clear way back Hmm

phpolly · 25/01/2019 10:55

She is not naive but somehow at the same time she is also stubborn and blind. My money's on Amber Rudd as the dark horse who helps take TM down.

DGRossetti · 25/01/2019 10:56

Ah, "Betrayal".

The banner word of the Nazis, after WW1 and Versailles.

Presumably Brexiteers feel "betrayed" over WW2. What with winning it and all ?

phpolly · 25/01/2019 10:57

@ElementsSong
plenty of chill pills available in the hour and a half between my posts.
Spoken like a smug regular poster here.

Motheroffourdragons · 25/01/2019 10:58

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 10:59

Amber Rudd sounds like she's thinking about thinking about having a go. Not sure what "having a go" is in this context but she sounds like she's thinking about thinking about it. She's been leaking to the press so much recently.

DGRossetti · 25/01/2019 11:01

My money's on Amber Rudd as the dark horse who helps take TM down.

When Rudd and resign seek to align ...

(That's enough doggerel - ed.)

anyway, back to planet earth.

Rudd has already been forced to resign once. Now she's speculating it's an option to prevent a no deal. If she resigns a second time, she can only aspire to the top job, or be prepared for another 30 years on the backbenches ?

I would hope a lot - if not all MPs are carefully considering what their chances - indeed roles - will be in post Brexit Britain. I am also hoping that a lot of them (albeit privately) have worked out that there's no version of Brexit which improves their careers. If there starts to be a mass consensus that no matter how sunny the uplands of 10-15 years away are none of the present crop of MPs are likely to enjoy it, then a suddenly effective brake appears in the equation.

I wonder if Farage is secretly hoping for an extension/revocation so he can carry on being an MEP ... that gravy is awfully expensive nice.

1tisILeClerc · 25/01/2019 11:03

{Ok, so my post is ignored, as this thread has become just another insiders' club}
You are not being ignored specifically, much of your post has been presented and discussed recently and I don't suppose many on here have an inside track to No10.
Most of my posts are ignored too, except by 'leave' voters who try to pick holes in the more irrelevant bits U say. A bit like complaining about the deckchair arrangement 10 minutes after the Titanic hit the iceberg. I don't think anyone has actually joined me in speculating what the hell the UK is going to actually DO on 30 March when it leaves, especially if it is No Deal to replace the million or so good paying jobs that will be lost.

HRH does a lot for tourism, but a lot of the extended family could be dropped from the civil list.

phpolly · 25/01/2019 11:04

Birds of a feather.... OK, so I will say what I think, which is that this Bloomberg piece from first thing this morning is spot-on, as are most of the Bloomberg daily Brexit updates, and everyone in the UK who is worried about the economic ramifications of the route this government is pursuing should be reading them (although I will no longer post them here due to seeming lack of interest). If anything at all should get the Tories' attention, given their allegiance to the business community and to banking interests, it's the fact that businesses and banking are fleeing the UK in droves right now, and this exodus will only get worse as we progress towards the likelihood of no deal. The UK economy is headed for disaster.

TheElementsSong · 25/01/2019 11:07

Spoken like a smug regular poster here.

Wow. Nice.

DGRossetti · 25/01/2019 11:07

Well Brendas speech was well-timed ... it allows the weekend (when there's no parliament and MPs tend to disperse to their seats) for less public reflection and review.

I would be curious to see what the tone of the press is Monday morning.

I'm also curious about what - if any - old Chuck might have with all of this ? Famously even he can't see the Queens red boxes, and I don't believe he's ever sat in (or been allowed to sit in) on the weekly audience. After all - and with no malice - it has to be said that it's more likely it will be King Charles that picks up the thick end of Brexit ?

It's probably best not to remember the second part of the HoC trilogy was called "To Play The King" ...

QueenMabby · 25/01/2019 11:09

PMK - trying the app. It feels weird. Going back to read it all now. Thanks all for the continued insight.

1tisILeClerc · 25/01/2019 11:09

{The UK economy is headed for disaster.}
I don't think many on this thread will disagree with that.

DGRossetti · 25/01/2019 11:13

and in other you-really-couldn't-make-it-up-news, be prepared for the latest internet domain ....

.ss

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/01/24/south_sudan_nazi_domain/

Now it would be incredibly annoying, and irritating - in fact it would be pathetically childish and simply not cricket if a load of Remain supporters were to start to buy up shedloads of .ss domains for the purposes of creating psuedo Brexiteer domains just to troll the public. I would sincerely hope that any such antics would be dismissed as soon suggested. After all, with Leave running such a clean campaign, it would lower the debate ....

(Who's going to snap up "nigelfarage.ss" and "borisjohnson.ss" ?)

TokyoSushi · 25/01/2019 11:14

Does anybody now what's happening with the 'what to do in preparation for a no deal' information for the general public?

I thought it was supposed to be coming out in mid January, but perhaps not...?

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 11:19

phpolly, put your toys back in the pram.

I don't know what you wanted in response to you post.

I didn't understand it.

You seemed to be saying did anyone have an email address so you could give them a link to a bloomberg article.

Why? I don't get it.

I'm sure that no 10 have people who watch the press for a job. And even if they didn't why on earth would emailing them to say 'hey read Bloomberg' help? As if the Tories will somehow have an ephipany by reading it.

It seemed a daft request and post. And frankly, I thought it better to ignore that to ask wtf you were on about. Mainly cos it would be rude to ask why on earth you were posting it.

Instead I'm busy looking to see whats else is going on today and posting it.

So thats why I didn't reply. It was nothing to do with whether you were a regular or not. I just didn't get it.

Since you are making a fuss about why there was no response and how you are being treated unfairly, I will just tell you straight rather than worry about being polite about it.

I'm baffled. Honestly. It just sounds like you are attention seeking now. And I'm still no wiser as to what your point is.

OP posts:
LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 11:20

Is it this Tokyo Don't panic! says the govt without giving any actual advice. Trouble is they can't spook the market with how tenuous it all is atm, so I think they are assuming that not having any information out there somehow makes investors think it is less likely we will have no deal. Nice people seem to still have faith in them to have an actual plan after the shitshow so far, eh?

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 11:21

@TokyoSushi - as my mum used to say "Silence. Was the stern reply ". Keeping my eyes open for it. Guess it'll be all over the papers once it shows up. If it shows up.

Hazardswans · 25/01/2019 11:22

polly If you think something is worth a read just post it, if anyone is like me they read things think useful/interesting and move along. Tbh the economics of this shite is a tad beyond me in terms of constructing sentences. I get when somethings bad news but as to the details of it I'm super stumped...so I read some more.

phpolly · 25/01/2019 11:23

My point is to bring an important fact-based source of information to this thread. There are real numbers and statistics available here. Nothing more or less. I do feel honestly that people who don't post regularly on this thread get ignored as know-nothings - which I most definitely am not. (No I do not work for Bloomberg! Although I do have friends there.) Nothing more or less. No toys in or out of pram. But I am sorry for the tone of your post RTB as I have always admired you and promoted your threads.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 25/01/2019 11:23

Thanks red and fishes!

phpolly · 25/01/2019 11:26

ps - and I would think my "anyone know anyone at No 10" would be clearly understood as sardonic.

squareofthehypotepotenuse · 25/01/2019 11:29

Does any one have any thoughts as to why Sterling seems to be rising? We on here seems very pessimistic about events and the likliehood of No Deal, yet the markets seemingly disagree? Or is there something else I’m not seeing? It’s irritating to see Express headlines crowing about sterling surging ahead against the Euro

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 11:30

Sorry Tokyo posted the thread I as looking at for infrastructure/database changes... I meant to post this but it doesn't sound like what you were asking about preparing for exit

MissMalice · 25/01/2019 11:30

I mostly skim read your post @phpolly - I find it hard to focus on long posts like that and prefer to be given a link to click through to.

Yes there were facts in your posts but most of them seem to be ones that have already been posted on these series of threads. Your dig at Red is unnecessary.

Swipe left for the next trending thread