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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

OP posts:
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bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 11:31

@phpolly , I know how frustrating it can be.
I have spent what feels like months on thread after thread with what I hope are gentle prepping tips and still have to trot out my "just think of three days stuck at home because of heavy snow - what would you need?" on a regular basis. And fend off numpties with their "you're all causing panic/Millenium Bug" bullshit whenever some poor sod plucks up the courage to ask about it.
It is wearing. We all feel strongly. We are all a bit worried. We all, thankfully, have opinions.
Nature of this mess, I'm afraid.
Planning to give up with my advice on steady prepping by about March. No point telling people to do steady proportionate prepping by that point.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 11:32

square apparently the 'prospect of a no deal are receding'. No idea what gives anyone that idea!

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 11:34

Oh, didn't last long - seems to have crashed again sterling down again

Hasenstein · 25/01/2019 11:35

Breathless PMK. Will have to speed-read the first 10 pages or we'll be on a new thread.

Thanks RTB and all.

phpolly · 25/01/2019 11:35

Thanks @bellinisurge, I really appreciate your post. It was incredibly kind of you to reach out, especially under the circumstances.
I have been storing up to my own "Brexit shelf" at home for months btw.
People with their heads in the sand are really driving me nuts.

squareofthehypotepotenuse · 25/01/2019 11:36

lonely - exactly! I look at what is happening and think the prospect of no deal is looming larger. Maybe i’m just a wet pessimist, and I should instead be thinking like a speculating market trader......?

MarmotMorning · 25/01/2019 11:37

As someone mentioned above, I also thought the consumer website was supposed to be up a few weeks ago.

If and when it goes up i think it will be a tipping point. A lot will depend on the tone and how it's worded.

And the public and press reaction to it will be influential in parliament

jasjas1973 · 25/01/2019 11:39

@phpolly

I post regularly and regularly get "ignored" BUT that doesn't mean someone somewhere hasn't read it it and thought jeez what a load of crap!!!! lol!

Does any one have any thoughts as to why Sterling seems to be rising?

People are thinking brexit won't happen and of course by pushing this idea, others can make money out of it, regardless of whether its true or not!
also, EU has had some poor growth predictions feeding more speculation that interest rates won't rise and remember the ECB stopped QE last month.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 11:41

I think the market recovers a bit at night, when our MP's are asleep and not doing stupid things. They can drop positive info stories on the world and close the door. Trouble is by 7am next day the lot of them are back to looking like idiots by spouting senseless slogans (see Treasury fluff piece that I can't imagine helped financial sector feel secure one bit) and not doing any real work (amending agreements, for example).

TokyoSushi · 25/01/2019 11:41

Thanks everybody, super helpful as always!

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 11:42

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
John Baron back with more backstop amendments... was used by Bercow last time as an excuse not to call Murrison. Suspect there would be some serious scenes if Speaker tries that one again... One excitable MP even suggested govt walk out, or a 'dramatic refusal to sit down'.

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
OP posts:
jasjas1973 · 25/01/2019 11:43

Bell i ve never responded to your prepping posts BUT i ve started buying a few basics and long life essentials.... and i don't truly believe no-deal will happen but it might, so its worth considering.

May is looking increasingly insane, so could try and force through anything at all.

PerverseConverse · 25/01/2019 11:47

@bellinisurge you've helped me lots re the prepping. I always gravitate towards your posts. Thanks to you I have extra supplies and feel less worried about food and toiletries. My main worry as a SAH single mum is that prices will rise significantly so I'm stocking up when things are on offer. I'll be looking for a job later in the year once I've done what's necessary to get back on the nursing register. My mum is a widowed pensioner with only her pension as income and is grateful to all the advice I've passed on to her. Lots of lurkers will have been helped too so thank you Thanks

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 11:48

Hey! I just got the Wetherspoons News too. I live in a very Leave area so it'll probably be well received. I'll keep an eye on local Facebook. Won't put it on my compost heap for fear of polluting with shiny paper. Dh can have a read if his nerves can stand it and then we'll put it in tbe paperbin.
Not saving it for emergency toilet paper because there is only so much shit you can put on it Grin

Hazardswans · 25/01/2019 11:49

jas I look out for your posts to read! Particularly if I've missed pages I always think oh just read jas's take....that might be because you say reassuring things like no deal is unlikely.

phpolly · 25/01/2019 11:52

Relatives in Ireland very nervous lately, esp since last weekend's incident in Derry and now with today's rumors/news.
Re Amber Rudd: I don't believe her resignation over Windrush would be meaningful if she decides to resign over Cooper amendment, as those are completely unrelated. May be wishful thinking however.

Hazardswans · 25/01/2019 11:53

bellini 😂😂Grin

BiglyBadgers · 25/01/2019 11:54

I do feel honestly that people who don't post regularly on this thread get ignored as know-nothings - which I most definitely am not.

I am a semi regular poster but, shock horror the other day I posted and nobody responded. Rather than a conspiracy I assumed that people were busy and/or felt they had nothing useful to add at this point. Other times I have had lots of responses. That's the way life is I'm afraid. As much as it hurts my ego to admit it, the world is not waiting on my every word.

I do now feel a bit bad though because @bellinisurge your posts have been really helpful and DH and I used your very sensible advice as the basis for our own small prepping efforts. I realise I have not posted this before so want to thank you now. Flowers

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 11:54

Post for anyone in the Sunderland area sanitary water problems and incompetence of UK gov

squareofthehypotepotenuse · 25/01/2019 11:55

Thank you lonely and jas for your thoughts. I’ll continue to be exasperated by the Express though!

phpolly · 25/01/2019 11:58

@lonely just one example of what will happen if we are no longer under the regulation of the EU. Shocking to think that our own country will not provide oversight unless forced to do so.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 12:00

The problems with relying on the WTO is that they are at best a rough set of the most basic rules

WTO also moves so slowly that countries can and do just impose tariffs or increase NTBs when they want to make a point
e.g. like Trump

MissMalice · 25/01/2019 12:08

Seriously what is the point of these backstop removal amendments. Is it just so TM can go back to the EU again to say that the WA would be agreed without the backstop? The arrogance of these MPs seems astounding, especially following Leo Varadkar’s comments that a backstop style arrangement would be needed even in the case of a no deal Brexit in order to abide by EU, WTO and GFA.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 12:10

Bizarre conclusion from the piece in the Mirror - she's on the ball with times and impossible-ness of it all but concludes Brexit somehow won't happen...without explaining how, after saying "March 29 was a Brexiteer threat to bring people in line, and it has utterly failed. It's inevitable that the British government will ask for Article 50 to be extended. And for the EU to say: "Why should we?" "
then ignores the fact EU needs to approve extension .

MsLucyLastic · 25/01/2019 12:10

phpolly, I am a lurker but found your post really interesting. Sadly, I know no-one in government to forwards it to.

I don't think you are being ignored, it is just fast paced here. I read this thread regularly and think I am a little bit in love with RTB, BCF, Mrsr8, LeClerc and DG and all the other posters. People I would like to be in the bunker with if the no deal clusterfuck goes ahead.

This thread is an oasis of sanity. I live in a strong leave area, where the residents seem to have gladly shit in their hands over no deal, and are now eager to be told they can clap on Brexit day, by an increasingly punitive government.