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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

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Thread gallery
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thecatfromjapan · 25/01/2019 03:05
Thanks
mathanxiety · 25/01/2019 03:42

Trump is trying to cause war in Venezuela and has hinted at military assistance. It would not be because of oil and establishing it as American Oil would it?

Very naughty of you RTB.

The Times fails to see that utopian fantasy leads to bloodshed far quicker if the fantasy includes
1 - keeping American mitts off a country's oil,
2 - friendship with Russia,
3 - friendship with Russia in a region close to the US.

Also, of course, Brexit is pure utopian fantasy.

Mistigri · 25/01/2019 05:55

Most are bound by NDAs

Some businesses are bound by NDAs in certain sectors (pharma ...) but I don't believe that ordinary businesses in non "critical" industries have signed NDAs. I doubt that's the case for my employer anyway.

I think there are a number of reasons U.K. owned/listed businesses don't speak out:

  • don't want to scare their shareholders (this is the number 1 reason. Most haven't properly prepared for it because it's impossible. In many cases it's going to fuck up their business model and send inventories through the roof.)
  • there is definitely a fear that businesses which speak out will not have access to govt in future
  • some just haven't got to grips with the issues Brexit will cause, for reasons of ideology, or because they don't have the money
Bosscastle · 25/01/2019 05:56

.

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 06:17

Pleased to wake up and read (mostly) appreciation for her Madge's words.
There's an annoying and mostly bleeped out song I keep hearing on Radio 1 when I drive my dd to school with a refrain that says "Calm Down, Britain. Don't Panic " - at least that's what my 50+ year old ears here.
The Queen was doing a version of that , I think.

SalrycLuxx · 25/01/2019 06:21

Hang on - is that Express headline suggesting...stockpiling?

Whatsnewwithyou · 25/01/2019 06:38

It would have been better if the qurmeesn had given her speech wearing her EU hat, though!

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 06:46

Yeah, the hat would've been cool.

frumpety · 25/01/2019 06:54

I am quite surprised The Express hasn't run with that picture of the Queen and the banner 'Traitor' .

frumpety · 25/01/2019 07:07

If the EU gave the UK a years extension on Art 50 , could they? Would they ? Would this mean that the UK could still revoke during that year ?

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 07:57

Otto English @ otto_english
Some nations have revolutions at times of national crisis. Here the Head of State talks to the local branch of the Women's Institute.

Don't mess with the WI!

Why didn't business speak out sooner?.

Many did. They were ignored. It didn't make the headlines enough. Press weren't interested enough to make it headline story. Business knows to a certain extent that because they don't have formal power, making a statement that has impact isn't just a question of saying it, it's a question of timing too. When are the newspapers going to deem it front page headline worthy. Many businesses do not want to appear bipartisan too. They have long business plans which out live government. They don't want to piss off a future government or a current one. Its got to the point now where stability over all over ids that concern. They can’t ignore political turmoil on this level. Also many are tied by codes of conduct too. Law firms for example would not be able to speak without endangering their reputation as free from politics. That's not NDAs but wider concerns. I know of one research firm who are sitting on a big report as they are supposed to be a non political organisation which is bad with a capital B in terms of what they've found. I personally think the withholding of the document is a political act, but because no one knows about it, they can't be judged as getting involved in politics. And that matters.

What I've heard privately from friends who have very good professional jobs is terrible. They know what no deal plans for their firms look like. But they don't want to spook staff, partly because they don't want a union problem until they absolutely have to. I'm sure there is also an element of waiting to see how the law lies too. What happens to employment law if there is no deal. Remember the statute books haven't been passed in Westminster. The law as it stands effectively has gaping hole in it come 29th March if we no deal. And then there's Henry VIII powers. A minister could do away with employment rights because of Brexit if they felt it necessary and given we don't know who might be PM in 4 or 5 months time with how weak May is, and lots of potential PM support a bonfire of rights this is relevant.

Whatever the reason as you say its not businesses job. Their role is to make money. Not babysit an incompetent government.

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RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 08:01

If the EU gave the UK a years extension on Art 50 , could they? Would they ? Would this mean that the UK could still revoke during that year ?

Is it in their own political interest to do so? Are they sensing a mood change. Do they believe that giving an extension would resolve the matter or stop us leaving? Would it protect the EU? A longer extension might be viewed as worth if if they felt it would stop extreme political chaos on their doorstep and they felt that the direction of travel would lead to a closer relationship but that simply needs more time to develop. Its starting to look that way. The no dealers have the appearance of increasing desperation and are running out of places to go for what our relationship post Brexit should be. The EU might view an extension as a good way to let the air deflate in all this nonsense.

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QueenieInFrance · 25/01/2019 08:09

Can’t rally follow the thread these days. It’s moving on too fast.

But still plaice mat king.

I might be able to catch some of it.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 08:11

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/jaguar-land-rover-factories-to-shut-down-for-extra-week-in-case-of-brexit-disruption-a4048441.html?amp&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Jaguar Land Rover factories to shut down for extra week in case of Brexit disruption

The alternative headline in the Brexit parallel universe is
Foreigners Jaguar Landrover stage incredibly expensive stunt to scaremonger and to get Jeremy Corbyn into power.

Or something.
I'm struggling with the mind boogling mental gymnastics now.

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RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 08:15

Twitter tells me that it looks like the EU are having a crack at rewriting the political declaration to support the WA.

But its lengthy in implications and I got to get up and dash out @pmdfoster for more.

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QueenieInFrance · 25/01/2019 08:15

The express go full guns blazing for no deal and how no deal prep is being stepped up

Have you seen/heard the government adverts about ‘what will happen on the 29th March?’
I heard a few of them on the radio this morning.

The thing is, with a WA, nothing will change on the 29th March. So I’m assuming now that the government is heading towards no deal and that, somehow, it’s too late to change direction.

Carrying on prepping then.

Destiel · 25/01/2019 08:17

I did have some visitors to the foodbank yesterday actually...

The CEO of our our district council (!)
And the local fire and rescue service ;)

Motheroffourdragons · 25/01/2019 08:34

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

FishesaPlenty · 25/01/2019 08:39

@lonelyplanetmum You can put your tinfoil hat away. It's a completely different Company. That Seabourn is part of Carnival plc. The 'new' company is Seaborne Freight (UK) Limited. No connection at all as far as I can see.

www.seabourn.com Cruise line
seabornefreight.com Ferry company with no ships

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 08:44

Very naughty of you RTB.
I'm jaded and cynicak

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1tisILeClerc · 25/01/2019 09:06

Any woman (HRH The Queen particularly) who can repair and maintain LandRovers gets strong support from me.
If any are good with aircon systems I will go and get the kettle on for them.

BackInTime · 25/01/2019 09:12

PMK
So thankful to you all for keeping up to speed with all this.

BlueEyeshadow · 25/01/2019 09:15

Interesting: Just Make It Stop - someone's been listening to the stuff about appealing to apathy and boredom!

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 25/01/2019 09:21

Can I ask about this 18 month period for the WTO to catch up with us? Is this something that is plausible and if so, would it prevent the chances of disruptions in the food supplies etc?

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 09:21

The Queen would definitely be in my fantasy prepper group. Very Old therefore knows useful stuff. Can fix cars. Tries to get people who don't get on to get on with each other. And she's good at keeping secrets.

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