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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

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whymewhynow · 26/01/2019 20:15

Oh no, so I just uncurled from my all over cringe at John Humphreys and someone had retweeted this (from last year) so now it's back to rocking in a darkened room and having to apologise to the Swedes:

Oh my God- John Humphrys just concluded a Brexit-focused interview with the (very courteous) Swedish ambassador by asking him, “And what’s the risk that after Brexit in Sweden you’ll end us speaking German instead of English as your 2nd language?” BrexitShambles #r4today

And thanks MsForestier Flowers

Spudlet · 26/01/2019 20:17

Should we just send out a blanket apology / general disowning letter for John Humphrys generally, do you think? 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

usuallydormant · 26/01/2019 20:18

Wrt BigChocFrenzy’s post about NI, the Titanic museum there is fascinating and shows just what a powerhouse Belfast was in terms of shipbuilding, linen and technological innovation at the turn of the 20th century. It’s well worth a visit.

I think it is worth repeating regularly that the last 20 years of peace has transformed Belfast again and certainly from a tourist perspective it's a welcoming vibrant city. It’s unconscionable to kill that progress and peace with a hard border caused by Brexit.

Great work from McEntee on R4. Humphrey’s condensation towards Ireland is typical of Brexiteers and I’m sure she wasn’t taken by surprise

Destiel · 26/01/2019 20:18

That man is a disgrace.

I wonder how many viewers the BBC has lost in the last 2 years??

What I find quite funny is that many leavers think them pro remain!!

So that's about 50% of the UK they are managing to piss off!

Destiel · 26/01/2019 20:20

We were there in May last year - it's a great place.

Breaks my heart...

HesterThrale · 26/01/2019 20:20

I've listened to the Humphrys interview and duly complained to the BBC.

ssl.bbc.co.uk/complaints/forms/?lang=en&reset=&uid=319724552

GD12 It could be that May wants to blame the EU for being inflexible. "We passed this WA but you didn't". Then when we have no food/meds it's the EUs fault.

I agree - they'll try to make it seem like the EU is being difficult.

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 20:21

Parliament can block No Deal surely. Please tell me this is right.

Otherwise we are totally fnkd.

Only ERG and wealthy people want a no deal now surely as the impact on them will be minimal.

Ahem, listening to some radio interviews with Leavers of the ordinary variety I am getting the feeling that propaganda and soundbytes really seem to work. But for whom?

GD12 · 26/01/2019 20:24

@nicoala1

Can Parliament block a no deal? The numbers are very, very tight. The Cooper/Boles ammendment to only delay Brexit has only 2 or 3 votes either way apparently. So whether there's any way Parliament can stop it, who knows.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 26/01/2019 20:26

It could be that May wants to blame the EU for being inflexible. "We passed this WA but you didn't". Then when we have no food/meds it's the EUs fault.

Oh God. I don’t know if it’s just my depression talking but that sounds horribly plausible GD12.

Reminds me of situations at work where certain people fucked up so badly they felt the only option was to find a way to blame someone else, even if they had to let the situation get worse to do so...

Icantreachthepretzels · 26/01/2019 20:29

So the backstop amendment is being proposed purely to cause trouble and then blame the EU? That makes sense - but aren't they trying to get TM to agree to it and whip it? Surely she knows it can't happen? And surely they know she knows it can't happen?

So if the tory front benches vote for this amendment they are pretty much admitting that 'no deal but blame it on the EU' is their official policy?

Or does TM still not understand that she cannot change the backstop?

I thought this amendment came from Graham Brady ... I know he's chairman of the 1922, is he also a member of the ERG? Does he actually understand that his amendment is impossible? Or does he think he's helping?

I'm struggling to keep straight - in all this - who is evil and who is just terminally stupid.

And the there are the one's who are both...

GD12 · 26/01/2019 20:29

@shippersunbound

twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1089258871380733952?s=19

Is the Cooper-Boles amendment in the bag? Apparently not as Oliver Letwin is busy phoning Tory MPs trying to reassure them it’s not the constitutional thin end of the wedge and it’s only a one off. Team May busy telling them the lid to Pandora’s Box is about to fly off

GD12 · 26/01/2019 20:31

The Tories can't even agree a 3 month delay, a simple delay!!

umpteennamechanges · 26/01/2019 20:31

Parliament can't really block no deal. We triggered Article 50 which means we leave on the 29th March with or without a deal. Parliament can't do anything about that fact as international law trump domestic law.

The best they can do is what the Cooper-Boles amendment is trying to do which is to force May into requesting an extension if there's no deal by a certain point (they've chosen 26th Feb if I am remembering correctly?).

I think technically it's not legally binding but it would force May to request an extension politically. But any one of the EU 27 could veto that request.

And as some PP have said...if the WA passes with the stupid Murrison amendment saying there will be no backstop/time limited backstop and the Cooper-Boles amendment passes I think the Cooper-Boles amendment might not work because technically Parliament did pass a deal (albeit it one the EU then tell us for the 500th time they won't accept).

I'm not sure about that last bit though as it starts to make my head hurt a little.

In summary, Parliament can't really stop no deal.

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 20:32

@GD12

Thanks, but anything I have read or listened to seems to suggest that No Deal is NOT what a majority in the Commons wants. I got some relief from that, notwithstanding that an alternative would have to be produced, so maybe many more headaches to come!

There is some arrogance apparent though, leaving it to the last minute like this. People and businesses are getting very anxious.

I hope TM remembers this when she is kneeling down in Church tomorrow. But I reckon she believes she has the Divine Right on her side and will not waver now. So much for Christianity. She will not suffer any anxiety about her decisions will she?

GD12 · 26/01/2019 20:37

@nicoala1

As the Tim Shipman tweet above suggests, if the Cooper/Boles ammnd can't even get passed then we're fu.

PestymcPestFace · 26/01/2019 20:40

For those who would like to go back to the seventies civil war? porn? police corruption? ooh and private eye Grin

umpteennamechanges · 26/01/2019 20:42

Quite a few Brexiteers keep parroting the line that the EU always capitulate at the 12th hour.

I think it's a mix of those who genuinely believe this and those that it's unlikely but are happy to keep running down the clock. I suspect a few in the ERG are playing a game to get to no deal now...put forward a stupid amendment, force TM to take it to the EU, get closer to the deadline and then threaten to tear the Tory party apart if she extends or revokes.

Meanwhile continue to whip up Leavers into believing no deal will be just a short term blip and that anything short of no deal would be a betrayal of Brexit.

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 20:45

@GD12,

Thanks for the information. I cannot keep up sometimes!

I hope that passes, but here we go again, down to the wire.

How could anyone vote for NO DEAL anyway if they have the good of the country in their hands. How could it be possible given the destruction NO DEAL will cause? I doubt they care now or acknowledge anything like that anymore, it has become a cult like thing without any thinking behind it.

Sadly, I am a bit anxious now.

umpteennamechanges · 26/01/2019 20:49

I've missed a lot over the past couple of days...have Labour confirmed whether they will whip re: Cooper-Boles?

SusanWalker · 26/01/2019 20:49

There was a really good program on C4 about the history of Belfast with Alice Roberts.

GD12 · 26/01/2019 20:51

@umpteennamechanges

Dont think its been announced yet. John Rentoul seems to think there's a 3 or 4 votes majority for it which is razor tight but ministers might vote for it. I don't know.

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 20:53

Nicked from the Trump thread!
www.byline.com/column/2/article/2401

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 20:57

Trump and the Russians are having a great laugh at UK. Ready to swoop in too I reckon.

But maybe that is what the current Government wants, it seems like it.

Why not keep your neighbours close and those will leech you very far away?

I doubt the Government has the brains to figure this out.

umpteennamechanges · 26/01/2019 20:57

Thanks @GD12

Have there been any predictions of numbers for the Murrison amendment?

I'm not sure that I see it passing...it will have some of the ERG and DUP but who else? Not enough to see it through I wouldn't have thought?

Hazardswans · 26/01/2019 20:58

Just catching up....

My dog is pro remain, he wrote a letter to TM and everything. Signed it with a paw dabbed in ink, it was adorable.

I like LeClercs quoting quirk, I'd miss it!

Changing the backstop but the EU hasnt agreed to it?! So it be shite? If my eyes rolled any harder they'd be in the floor.

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