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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

OP posts:
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Spudlet · 26/01/2019 19:14

Well to be fair bellini I believe his exact invitation to Ireland was to throw their lot in with the U.K. 🤦‍♀️

I mean. Why?!

MsForestier · 26/01/2019 19:14

The Irish Border
The Irish Border @BorderIrish 1h
I think I’m ruining John Humphrys’s Brexit

PestymcPestFace · 26/01/2019 19:18

Is Spain meant to leave as well?
That would sort Gibraltar.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2019 19:19

NI is a dysfunctional economy consisting of about 70% public sector
They are massively subsidised per head by Britain, about £10 billion per year
btw, that’s more than the UK net contributions to the EU and it's for 1 million Unionists, instead if 65 million Brits

In contrast:
The RoI’s economy is four x larger than NI’s, generated by a work force that is only 2.5 x larger
The RoI’s industrial output is 10 x that of the NI
RoI exports are 17 times x those of NI
RoI average income = €39,873, vs €23,700 in NI

https://www.irishtimes.com/northern-ireland-and-the-tripadvisor-index-of-economic-vibrancy-1.3311077

The union with Britain has been an economic calamity for Northern Ireland.
All the people have suffered, Catholic and Protestant, unionist and nationalist.

In 1920, 80 per cent of the industrial output of the entire island came from the three counties around Belfast.
Belfast was the biggest city in Ireland in 1911, larger than Dublin, and was home to Ireland’s innovation and technology.
...[now] Dublin is three times bigger than Belfast, far more cosmopolitan and home to hundreds of international companies.

At partition the North was industrial and rich, the South agricultural and poor.
Fast-forward to now, and the contrast couldn’t be greater.

The collapse of the Northern Ireland economy compared with that of the Republic has been unprecedented.
East and West Germany come to mind.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2019 19:29

2018 RoI trade statistics

RoI trade value is several times higher with the EU than the UK
So Irexit makes no economic sense

  • and 92% of Irish people want to stay in the EU anyway

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsnovember2018/

RoI exports:
10% to UK
49% to EU

RoI imports:
22% from UK
57% from EU

mathanxiety · 26/01/2019 19:33

Spudlet
The suggestion that Ireland should leave the EU and rejoin the UK is so batshit that there are no actual words for the batshitness of it.

Spudlet · 26/01/2019 19:33

If Ireland wants to, they are surely in a great position to step up as the new English-speaking gateway to the EU - you know, just like London used to be.

Why would any sensible which rules out the U.K. country want to give that opportunity up?

Icantreachthepretzels · 26/01/2019 19:34

If the amendment to ‘destroy’ the backstop is passed the EU will still say ‘non’. It has no impact on the EU at all.

Well, yes - exactly my point. So what happens then? What is their end game in proposing something that cannot come to pass?

bellinisurge · 26/01/2019 19:40

@Spudlet - just told DH who, like me has an Irish parent.
He, like me, thinks that's grounds for instant dismissal.
He also called him a fucking twat. Which is much more polite than me.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2019 19:41

Marina Hyde sums up with some scary truths mixed in with the humour

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/25/rees-mogg-brexit-emergency?twitterr_impression=true

Even at this incredibly late hour, vast swaths of parliament are doggedly placing self-interest above national interest, apparently bolstered by some vague belief that Britain is too big to fail.
.....
Jacob Rees-Mogg, who on Wednesday gave an address during which he suggested that the Queen should, if necessary, suspend parliament to stop things not going his way.
Nothing says “I believe passionately in parliamentary sovereignty” quite as convincingly as demanding that the sovereign shut down parliament.
.......
If you had to distil into one personage the British people’s gibbering historical deference to terrible ideas advanced by low-to-middlebrow post-feudal shitlords who openly detest them,
this plastic aristocrat would be it.

Rees-Mogg is the logical end of whole centuries of barking up the wrong tree.

mathanxiety · 26/01/2019 19:46

Quietrebel Sat 26-Jan-19 08:25:51
How ironic for people who profess to despise Europeans so much, Germans in particular, to then adopt the worst ideology those very same could ever have come up with!
They are intellectual sheep. The English turning Nazi would be the best victory Goebbels could ever have dreamed of!!

I think as the 'Remembering the 43' broadcast linked by LonelyandTiredandLow shows, there was always a streak of Nazism in England.

Mosley and the Blackshirts carried on holding marches and public meetings for many years in the wake of the war, and even with the discovery of all the extermination camps and the realisation that six million Jews had been slaughtered fresh in people's minds he continued to attract crowds with speeches in which he referred to 'aliens', and his supporters chanted that Hitler hadn't killed enough Jews.

As Ben the numeracy expert (link upthread) illustrates, the thick as pigshit, raving anglophile type has not gone away.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2019 19:46

Passing a WA without the backstop is not passing the WA
It just wastes time
and is yet another reminder to the EU that Westminster is too chicken to take hard decisions over Brexit

Westminster is used to the fact that many political hot potatoes can be neutralised simply by avoiding decisions until the heat has gone and most people have forgotten everything about it

Unfortunately, Brexit has a 2-year timer on a built-in nuke that will blow up the British economy

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 19:49

“England’s difficulty is Ireland’s opportunity.”
Never so true, or well deserved, as now.

Spudlet · 26/01/2019 19:54

there was always a streak of Nazism in England.

After WWII, psychologists carried out all sorts of experiments based around the hypothesis that 'the Germans are different' - that there was something about the German culture that allowed the atrocities of WWII to happen, that would not be replicated elsewhere. The Milgram experiment was one of them (the famous one where people were led to believe that they were giving another person painful and potentially lethal electric shocks). There were others too.

None of them that I know of found any such difference. Circumstances and chance are what led Germany and their allies into fascism. Had the circumstances been different, it could have happened here, or anywhere else.

I can think of a few Brexiteers who need to remember that.

squareofthehypotepotenuse · 26/01/2019 19:54

Re filibustering in HoL:

John Rentoul in Independent says this -

“There is some talk of this bill being blocked by Eurosceptic peers in the House of Lords, which would have to whizz it through on the same day. Unlike the Commons, the Lords doesn't have rules for timetabling debates, which means a small group of peers could keep talking to prevent votes. But Labour and Liberal Democrat peers insist that the huge majority opposed to a no-deal Brexit in the House of Lords would invent new rules if needed to get the bill through. ”

I have NO idea if this is the case!

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 19:54

I doubt NO DEAL will get through a Parliament that doesn't want that at all. (Nor do very many others either).

So what's next?

I really hope Theresa May prays in her church soon for guidance and just quietly revokes A50 on 28th March (having given the nod to EU beforehand). I do understand that leaving the EU under A50 is enshrined in law, but I doubt EU or anyone else with half a brain would object now.

All other options are just not feasible right now imo.

I hope I am right. It is either that or WA with backstop really isn't it?

Icantreachthepretzels · 26/01/2019 19:59

Passing a WA without the backstop is not passing the WA
It just wastes time

so... (and I'm thinking round a corner here so apologies if the twisting causes any nausea or headaches) if Yvette Cooper's amendment passes and the backstop amendment passes ... and then the W.A passes - in theory that puts an end to the Cooper amendment. BUT if what they actually pass isn't the W.A because they have modified the backstop and the E.U just sigh and hand it back - does this bring the Cooper amendment back into play?

(Cooper amendment is the one that states we have to ask for an extension to article if a deal is not agreed by Feb - for anyone who has got snowed under in amendments.)

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 20:00

And the Queen is the Supreme Governor of the C of E, May’s church. We know what the Queen thinks of this, we saw her hat. Dear God, the legacy of the Tudors is coming home to roost big time now, isn’t it? (Mixed metaphor, I know.)

GD12 · 26/01/2019 20:00

@icantreachthepretzels

All its doing is hastening a no deal which is perhaps what they want.

StoorieHoose · 26/01/2019 20:00

I was musing while making dinner about what event could happen to stop brexit and divert the leavers attention away from it. Unfortunately the only thing I could think of was a terrorist attack or a war

What an awful situation we are in

GD12 · 26/01/2019 20:01

It could be that May wants to blame the EU for being inflexible. "We passed this WA but you didn't". Then when we have no food/meds it's the EUs fault.

Destiel · 26/01/2019 20:09

John Humphries is an absolute fucking cockwomble 😡

How is it so many better, more intelligent, and, gasp! even female presenters are not on our screens instead??

And yet...there he still is...slowly turning into fucking Nazi Gandalf behind his desk...

Argh!...😡🤬

umpteennamechanges · 26/01/2019 20:11

I still think we'll end up with no deal. Just on the basis that nothing else will be sorted out and so we'll end up crashing out by default. And it won't matter whether Parliament want it or not as they won't be able to stop it.

I have reduced my % no deal likelihood (the one I keep in my own head) from 75% to 60% but I think I might just be being optimistic.

TatianaLarina · 26/01/2019 20:12

What is their end game in proposing something that cannot come to pass?

Running down the clock.

Destiel · 26/01/2019 20:12

I think no deal is inevitable now.

She will not revoke and the WA will not pass.

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