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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
59
TatianaLarina · 26/01/2019 17:52

Juncker has basically told May customs union or backstop. That’s the only negotiating wiggle room.

Nothing U.K. Parliament votes for alters this.

BackInTime · 26/01/2019 17:56

Apparently John Humphries suggested to the Irish Minister for Europe that a good solution to the border issue would be for Ireland to also leave the EU and come in with the U.K. in some form.

It’s not the first time I’ve heard this suggested, I’ve had it from leave voting ILs and work colleagues. I’ve managed to ignore this with a hysterical laugh. The fact that it’s now even being suggested by a BBC journalist is just appalling ignorance and arrogance.

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 18:00

BackInTime,

I listened to that interview, and was frankly spluttering. But I think the Irish EU Minister was really professional, kept calm, and batted all that nonsense away in a very soothing voice, toot sweet!

The arrogance to even suggest this has me flummoxed!

Anyway for those who may have missed it, here is the clip.

Apologies if it has already been posted.

PootlesBobbleHat · 26/01/2019 18:00

Maybe France can come in with us too to.lessen freight issues. Maybe Holland, Belgium....Germany's quite a good trader with us, they can join...

Hang on...

FFS.

I can't stand the arrogance of those arguing we just 'give back' NI 'to ireland' to make it easier...

Destiel · 26/01/2019 18:03

Ffs

Ta1kinPeace · 26/01/2019 18:08

The House of Lords is massively pro Remain
hence why the ERG want to keep all things Brexit away from them Grin

Lucygoeswalkies · 26/01/2019 18:09

Interesting. I’ve just heard a bit on the news with an interview with the New Zealand prime minister. She said (I’m paraphrasing) that a no deal Brexit would have significant ramifications for NZ and be very bad news. It seems that our shit show, should it turn into total and irrevocable shit storm, would have far reaching effects indeed.

HateIsNotGood · 26/01/2019 18:11

HoL - maybe the consensus here is that we all need to refresh our knowledge of their role?

Clerc - you too, wherever you may be - this cold weather has got a few long weeks to go - so maybe your "fascination with Brexit" could extend to looking into the operation of the HoL and providing us all with more of your gems Wink.

No need to "cancel" MN after 30th Mar - you might find another Topic to keep you engaged. Just a tip but maybe you could scroll down your page and acquaint yourself with the conventional keyboard shortcuts that 99% Mners use when they do quotes, etc?

If your keyboard allows it of course.

IrenetheQuaint · 26/01/2019 18:13

"John Humphries suggested to the Irish Minister for Europe that a good solution to the border issue would be for Ireland to also leave the EU and come in with the U.K. in some form."

I've thought for a while that John Humphries is an utter disgrace, but this is beyond appalling. The BBC should retire him asap.

prettybird · 26/01/2019 18:15

How an archaic quirk of the House of Lords could lead us closer to a no-deal Brexit
Pro-Brexit Tory peers could filibuster Labour attempts to extend Article 50 – and plunge the country into a constitutional crisis

www.independent.co.uk/voices/no-deal-brexit-theresa-may-filibuster-house-of-lords-yvette-cooper-amendment-a8743201.html

The HoL might be massively pro-Remain as a whole - but it might not stop pro-Brexit wreckers within it sabotaging the democratic process although they won't see it that way Sad

PerverseConverse · 26/01/2019 18:18

Omg I'm so embarrassed by John Humphries interview. How arrogant can you get. The hatred was almost palpable coming from JH. The Irish EU minister was fantastic and stated facts respectfully and calmly. JH could learn a lot from her.

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 18:26

PerverseConverse

I could not believe what I was hearing! But we know that the Beeb is floundering at the moment. But that interview was something else entirely.

Agree that the arrogance from JH was palpable, but sure the Irish are only peasants, just 100years from British rule and are a disgrace for not upholding their place in the "Empire"

Such irony now that ROI has one of the best education systems at all levels, and has practically full employment now (no country will ever have that), and the economy is growing steadily.

That Minister was ACE! She never lost her cool at all.

DGRossetti · 26/01/2019 18:35

the HoL have been suprisingly quiet during all the 'shenanigans' to date; I need to refresh my knowledge on their role but the HoL has a role to play in Parliament and, to date, they haven't played it.

I think - certainly in my lifetime - the HoL has become incredibly sensitive to it's unelected and therefore ultimately undemocratic mandate. So it tries to steer away from contention. I guess you could see parallels with the chilling effect on free speech of self-censorship.

Which means it/s basically as effective as an ashtray on a motorbike when it comes to doing it's fucking job.

I still prefer my idea that a second chamber should be constituted from the second-place candidates in a PR system. Similar powers (or lack thereof) to the HoL - but it would provide an automatic balance where peoples vote can still count. It's probably far too simple and cheap to ever appeal to the people it would have to appeal to to get enacted.

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 18:41

DG,

The electorate cannot decide who to vote for right now (if a GE is called for example). FPTP is the most undemocratic system I can think of right now.

Tory or Labour. Nobody else gets a look in ever. No wonder political interest is not on the radar for many people. What's the point?

I doubt it will change either, it is far too beneficial for Reds and the Blues jumping in and out of opposite sides of the Commons.

But I do think if push comes to shove the Lords may surprise us.

BiglyBadgers · 26/01/2019 18:47

It's probably far too simple and cheap to ever appeal to the people it would have to appeal to to get enacted.

More to the point how would the PM of the day buy votes from MPs and pay off their party donors if they can't hand out peerages?

HateIsNotGood · 26/01/2019 18:47

bellini Grin

HateIsNotGood · 26/01/2019 18:58

Not sure why my laughing at bellinis description of talking to Sandringham's WI appeared just above - will put down to t'internet...

As I said before, DG, we'll all have to refresh our knowledge of HoL, seeing as it's gone through colossal changes in the past decade or so - a mere nth in it's entirety.

Your proposals for how the HoL should be seem valid enough - maybe post-Brexit you could endeavour to pressure/politic to give them some merit? Or maybe you will have bailed out/jumped ship because you don't like the UK anymore and don't really give a shit
what happens here anymore?

whymewhynow · 26/01/2019 18:59

Oh God, that JH interview - I'm curled up in a corner experiencing a full body cringe. The bit where he accused Ireland of being arrogant for wanting UK to sort out the problems Brexit has caused, the open-mouthed horror of him not only suggesting that Ireland leave the EU but also backing up his argument with wildly incorrect stats. Is there some way of letting the Irish know that we're not all blowhard arsehorns? I. Am. Just. So. Embarrassed.

MsForestier · 26/01/2019 19:03

I can't speak for all Irish people whymewhynow but I appreciate your comments Grin

Couldn't quite believe JH came out with such a thing...

MsForestier · 26/01/2019 19:04

☘️

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 19:06

Yeah, LeClerc. Know your keyboard!
FFS.

bellinisurge · 26/01/2019 19:07

John Humphries said what??????

mybrainhurtsalot · 26/01/2019 19:07

Bloody hell, that article about flight delays posted LonelyandTiredandLow says they are expected delays of 1 month on day 1 from Dover:

“The ETOA chief executive also noted that 30,000 U.K. nationals depart from Dover every day and suggested it could produce “delays of one month on day one,” he said, according to the report.”

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 19:09

I can believe it of JH. He is ignorant and arrogant, so no surprise that what he says displays that ignorance and arrogance.
Isn’t he good mates with David Davis? If so, say no more.

nicoala1 · 26/01/2019 19:13

I follow some Irish political fora, and believe me the consensus is that Humphries is not representative of the average UK person at all.

Just another bulldog interviewer, and they are everywhere now that Social Media is making mainstream media defunct, well in due course it will I suppose.

But obviously there are cheers for the Irish EU Minister too. Naturally, and many in UK think the interview was an appalling example of British arrogance and presumption. But hey ho, and on we go.

There will be something else to comment on tomorrow and Monday, and then comes another Tuesday Groundhog Day.

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