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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

OP posts:
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LonelyandTiredandLow · 26/01/2019 16:43

I suspect this has something to do with international relations - sad that they don't always do such grovelling or pay out when they spread lies about the poor or EU. Not sure poor Melania needs monetary compensation. Hmm

LonelyandTiredandLow · 26/01/2019 16:47

And I imagine a lot of families going abroad won't factor in 3 hours for customs and many flights will be missed

Trying to catch up Wink

Icantreachthepretzels · 26/01/2019 16:49

re cat/dog people - i’m sure I have read somewhere that cat owners are generally less authoritarian in their views than dog owners...so that would fit with the remainder/leaver profile.

Huh - that's really interesting. Anecdata obvs- but it fits the profile at my sister's house. She is a remain voting cat owner - her leave voting boyfriend doesn't really like the cat because he is a dog person and doesn't really appreciate that cats are totally different to dogs, and then gets cross with the cat when she acts like ... a cat Hmm

Cat is definitely a remain supporter and an enthusiastic stockpiler.

My bunnies are also remain supporters - but they have been big in the 'votes for bunnies' suffrage movement for years. You may not realise this is a thing. But it is ... in my house.
(side note - I actually have the bunnies because leave voting boyfriend of sister didn't want her to keep them when they moved in together. Feel free to be scandalised and disgusted.)

DGRossetti · 26/01/2019 16:51

30% of WC voters will always vote Tory.

Well, that's 30% of the WC the Tories can forget about, isn't it ?

1tisILeClerc · 26/01/2019 16:52

If you want a little relief apart from furry animals, the Euromyths is a bit of fun. Try this:
(High up’ signs on mountains row (BBC News Online, 22 March 2004)
A Euro MP claims new EU laws to prevent falls at work will mean UK mountain pursuit centres having to warn people that they are “high up”… Welsh Tory MEP Jonathan Evans said…”This is madness)

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 26/01/2019 17:00

30% of WC voters will always vote Tory.

Well, that's 30% of the WC the Tories can forget about, isn't it ?

IIRC that was very much the gist of the lesson, that the Tories could rely on those votes regardless of what they did. Maybe, scary thought, the percentage is higher these days than in the 80s?

I forget the percentage but the teacher also mentioned the surprisingly high number of Sun readers who thought they were reading a left-wing newspaper.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 26/01/2019 17:01

A bit of health data harvesting a few years before the tories privitise our NHS and we have to pay for costly treatment looks likely - it swerves some of the ethical dilemma of screening but as the article says, who will be able to buy this information if we sell off NHS?

Destiel · 26/01/2019 17:08

Oh what lovely pooches!!

I love dogs. But allergic family members means I can't have one :(

It's my secret sorrow.

HateIsNotGood · 26/01/2019 17:08

Clerc - are you able to get a dog or a cat where you are? They're super-helpful when you can't face humans anymore - 'bunnies' too can be really cuddly as pretzels suggests. But you have to really want one as only you can care for it and your pet will rely on you as much as your own children do.

You spend so much time posting on this board offering your, often random, little gems of wisdom - it might be good for you to have something else to distract you from your 'cause'.

DGRossetti · 26/01/2019 17:10

IIRC that was very much the gist of the lesson, that the Tories could rely on those votes regardless of what they did

There's a similar subset of "I've always voted Labour" voters too.

Ultimately, it's these people - well meaning and naive in the extreme - that lead to parties attracting those that seek to use it for their own ends.

Once again, it's harder to achieve that in a PR electoral system, although not impossible as events elsewhere demonstrate.

TatianaLarina · 26/01/2019 17:10

Jean-Claude Juncker has told Theresa May in a private phone call that shifting her red lines in favour of a permanent customs union is the price she will need to pay for the EU revising the Irish backstop.

Franz Timmermans said “Let me be extremely clear: there is no way I could live in a situation where we throw Ireland under the bus”...”As far as the European commission is concerned, the backstop is an essential element for showing to Ireland and to the rest of Europe that we are in this together.”

link

Why does that bloody woman not understand that the backstop CANNOT BE renegotiated??

SwedishEdith · 26/01/2019 17:16

apart from one grandmother who always voted Tory because she wasn't common like the rest of them grin

There's a lot in that. Linking Toryism with wealth so voting Tory is aspirational or a way of feeling you've lifted yourself from the bottom in some way.

Went to a talk last year where the MEN's Jen Williams talked about visiting people in poor Leave voting areas in north Manchester who also planned on voted Tory. I can't remember everything she said but she did speak about how migrants and refugees had been located in these areas and locals conflated this with the EU. They weren't able (or chose not) to see that this was a Tory govt policy.

I also remember reading - but can't find it now - a paper on how even the 'posh' parts of Liverpool are Labour seats. An idea that was unthinkable when I was a growing up there. Wish I could find it but some of the effect (probably not in the posh areas) was put down to the lack of S*n sales.

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 17:17

Left vs right wing - my extensive research (ie limited and anecdotal) informs me that many people don’t understand these categories or how they apply to political parties. Some don’t understand what the Government is, thinking it’s just the House of Commons in its entirety. They don’t understand the difference between the Commons and the Lords. No one has told them and they’re not interested.
Even when people read print news, they don’t necessarily understand what is being said, except in the broadest outline - which is then very cleverly exploited by the press to manipulate opinion.

Icantreachthepretzels · 26/01/2019 17:18

Why does that bloody woman not understand that the backstop CANNOT BE renegotiated??

So what happens if the amendment to destroy the backstop is passed and then the W.A deal is passed on the back of that? We crash out on the 29th because we can't actually unilaterally change the W.A and the ERG get to blame the EU for being intransigent? Is that the end plan? Or do they genuinely believe the ability to change the backstop lies ion their power?

PootlesBobbleHat · 26/01/2019 17:23

Thanks BBC news for just now conflating stockpiling and panic buying. Blaming stockpiling for causing medicine shortages.

My DH is already hostile to stockpiling even though medicine - on which I rely - is the one thing I can't.

He's now arguing that stockpiling is just advance panic buying .

Bloody BBC - The Brexit Broadcasting Corporation.

Apileofballyhoo · 26/01/2019 17:26

a good solution to the border issue would be for Ireland to also leave the EU and come in with the U.K

Not the first time someone made that suggestion...

www.newstalk.com/Lord-Nigel-Lawson-hopes-Irish-Republic-realises-its-mistake-and-rejoins-UK-following-Brexit

TheElementsSong · 26/01/2019 17:26

Thanks BBC news for just now conflating stockpiling and panic buying.

Maybe BBC news staff hang out on MN...

HateIsNotGood · 26/01/2019 17:27

born - agree, the HoL have been suprisingly quiet during all the 'shenanigans' to date; I need to refresh my knowledge on their role but the HoL has a role to play in Parliament and, to date, they haven't played it. I think this is very wise and that there must be some 'consensus' going on there.

1tisILeClerc · 26/01/2019 17:27

HateIsNotGood
Thanks. I can have whichever animals I wanted but an 'outside' dog (like a collie) or cat would be easiest.
My most cunning plan is that on March 30th I cancel MN and do something productive instead. It's the cold weather and fascination of the Brexit process that is stopping me.

Ta1kinPeace · 26/01/2019 17:28

Blue Collar Tories
I deal with a lot of them.
Aspirational working class who think that hard work will make them better than the other working class, who they look down on quite viciously.
Toff Tories regard them as little more than cannon fodder

Champagne Socialists
Have the luxury of wealth cushions to allow themselves to empathise with the poor
while making sure that they do not actually mingle with them.
And are thus despised by the working class.

But actually Left and Right have had their day.
Its all about Open v Closed now

Lucygoeswalkies · 26/01/2019 17:34

moussemoose. I’ve taken a vote. The two dogs slept through it, so I’ll have to take a punt on what they might have wanted.

They might have voted leave had it been written ‘LEAVE!!!’. It’s also possible that they might have voted remain had it been written ‘STAY!!!’ Sadly, they take not a blind bit of notice of what they’re told - and they’re still asleep...

Moussemoose · 26/01/2019 17:37

Lucy I teach.

That sounds just like one of my lessonsWink

IrenetheQuaint · 26/01/2019 17:41

" the HoL has a role to play in Parliament and, to date, they haven't played it. I think this is very wise and that there must be some 'consensus' going on there."

Interesting point. Partly it's that the Lords' primary role these days (I think) is to provide a second set of eyes on legislation, and we haven't had much primary legislation recently as the Commons have been taken up with debating the deal, business motions etc.

Also the Lords tend to confine themselves on identifying problems with legislation - e.g. if there are risks the Commons hasn't properly considered. They don't set themselves against the general direction of the Government, since almost all members of the government are elected and the Lords isn't. As the Government currently has no general direction, it's quite hard for the Lords to know what to do.

prettybird · 26/01/2019 17:45

Haven't some pro-Brexit members of the HoL threatened to filibuster any attempt by the backbenchers to "take back control" to try and stop Npo Deal? So No Deal is still inevitable Sad

There is apparently no means of forcing a member in the House of Lords to give way or any way to introduce a guillotine motion, even if time is of the essence Shock

Don't know enough about the working of the HoL though.

TatianaLarina · 26/01/2019 17:48

So what happens if the amendment to destroy the backstop is passed and then the W.A deal is passed on the back of that?

If the amendment to ‘destroy’ the backstop is passed the EU will still say ‘non’. It has no impact on the EU at all.

I don’t see why the WA would be passed in that case, but if it is MPs are even more stupid than they appear.