Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

[RedToothBrush]

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

LucyLastic

The thing is, maybe we are getting a bit more worried than the situation merits (or not, as it may transpire). But what makes me so bloody mad is that we are here, in 2019, in a wealthy, developed country, and people are being put through this sort of mental anguish, and why? Not because of a war, or a catastrophe or anything that isn't totally the result of a chain of foolish choices made by people who are supposed to know better. The referendum, the way it was run, the campaigns, the instant triggering of article 50, the hopeless negotiations, the parliamentary shenanigans. None of these things are inevitable. It didn't have to be this way. But it is, and people are suffering needlessly because of it already - never mind if it goes as badly wrong as some predictions say.

Some people would call getting worried hysteria, but that misses the point that there should be no need for hysteria of any kind if a small number of people had engaged their brains and thought, rather than allowing hubris and arrogance to rule the day.

lucy I get it. Really. I do. X

I agree re white, working class boys and education. It's an issue all over the UK and has been for decades.

I've just done my prevent training as a school governor and it's scary. Its scary how these young minds are corrupted by the far right but it's also so easy to see why it happens.

Radicalisation gives them a sense of self, of importance, of belonging.

Everything that a family, community and education should provide.

I knew plenty of wc poor kids like me who did well at school but for whom HE was simply not an option. I remember my sociology teacher raging about it. Didn't change the facts.

I also knew kids my age who left school unable to read. Whose parents bragged about having never read a book "and it didnt do me any harm".

I remember the absolute vitriol with which students were talked of by wc comedians in the 70s and 80s...

It all - brexit, trump, ERG, austerity - seems like such giant leap backwards for our society.

I’m half German and the open anti German comments don’t surprise me in the least. We have a plan for if it increases that has been in the background for ages now. The DC have DH’s surname which ironically is old English but looks German so when people try to say it the make it sound German. My surname on the other hand is very boring common surname, so if the anti German prejudice increases then they will use mine, in fact i’ve just said to DH we might need to consider that in not too distant future, he agreed and said how disgusted he is that we are even having this conversation.

People don’t realise my heritage from talking or looking at me and assume I am British. So I’ve heard many many remarks about the Germans throughout the years. There is a deep distrust of them and a stereotype that they are arrogant and out to rule us through the EU having failed to through the war. I’ve heard so so many comments over the years and my own Father who married a German in the 1960’s said ‘My parent’s generation didn’t fight in the war for us to be ruled by the Germans via Brussels.

That comment by an MP will ramp up the anti German sentiment which simmers under the surface and is incredibly evident reading the comments on the Express. Very sad, but I expected it and saw it coming.

Thanks Destiel and Spudlet

The situation is just so worrying that it is all too easy to mentally see the worst conclusions. Which probably is a bit hysterical. Hence my feeling like a dickhead for spilling my worries here.

But then the other way is denial that fascism could ever rise again. We know that it can. I think being in denial makes it easier to sleep though. Until then, there is

LeClerc - that sounds dreadful. Children should never be used as pawns. Splits are hard enough on them without other shenanigans! I hope your situation improves, for your and your children's sake.
(And you are right.....being a bastard is an affliction which permeates all classes!)

@PootlesBobbleHat

My neighbour's cat reads the Daily Mail by sitting on it and absorbing its poison through osmosis thus protecting the rest of us from contamination.

Very late response as I'm having a Mumsnet spa day and was too busy lying on a waterbed but...

I've just started volunteering at an animal hospital and now spend part of my weekends lining trays with the Daily Mail so hedgehogs can shit all over it 🦔

LucyLastic i think that’s a very good evaluation of what is happening.
The only thing I wouod say that is putting down people on benefit’s, foreigners etc..l isn’t just a brexit issue.
This had ramped up years before, even before the Tories took power. This is something I have actually felt re immigration. Things have got worse and worse in 20 years. And it wasn’t just under a conservative government.

Ditto with my married name...sounds foreign but is one of half a dozen pre Norman invasion Saxon names still in use!!

I've made plans too.

I got my kids their Irish citizenship, got our EU passports. Stockpiling, saving...hopefully next year I will look back and laugh...

Postnot I was born in Germany, because my dad was stationed there with the forces. I was born on an RAF base, ffs. But I learned quickly to keep quiet about that at school in the eighties and nineties - it was used against me by bullies a fair few times before I caught on.

I thought that we'd grown out of that prejudice, but then I thought that about a lot of things - my own privilege speaking there I fear.

Re privilege, I remember sharing this cartoon strip years ago on Facebook. It encapsulates "privilege" and the lack of a level playing field - and the lack even of awareness of some of the fact that the playing field is not level .

www.boredpanda.com/privilege-explanation-comic-strip-on-a-plate-toby-morris/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

Post I agree with you re the attitude towards Germans too....
And I also agree that it’s not new.
Having H name (Avery very common british name) helps but my slight accent gives me away.
Before people were asking wher I’m coming from after meeting me a few times. It was always done in an interested way.
Now I have the question within minutes of meeting me followed by ‘and how long have you been here?’ and/or ‘what brought you here’.
Being French it’s often better received than German I think but there is always the niggle that I came to take someone’s job (I didn’t. I came when I got married with H)

And yes plans are in place for me too.
Stockpiling just in case.
If things are becoming ugly, I know I can get away.

I have a very German surname (didn't take dh's name when we got married) - even though it left Germany in the 16th century Even Germans find it unusual (although the 2nd part of it is an ordinary German word)/old fashioned.

Maybe because I live in Scotland, I have never come across any negativity towards me. Maybe I just have nice friends

We are becoming like the US....where a lot of the people think that if you are poor you simply didn't work hard enough. Nothing to do with sickness, disease, disability, sex or what family you were born into.

I think it's a little more nuanced than that when you factor in the religious (really "religious") dimensions that appears to be seeping into England. And that is that if you are ill, or disabled, then it's Gods will and you have somehow bought it on yourself. Which seems to act as some sort of inoculation against the notion of welfare or helping others.

MsLucyLastic
Thanks. It's not actually 'bad' but a combination of a couple of deliberate actions, combined with circumstances I can't control leave me very frustrated that what could have been truly wonderful life will be mediocre at best.
It actually mirrors Brexit fairly well, a couple of poor decisions at the beginning followed by just 'events'.

I was talking to dc1 and explaining why I think that the U.K. is now a far right country even though very few people would ever accept it (I’m also aware itnwill some people reading scram!).
But here is a country who has introduced a benefits system that has been shown to be against human rights.
One who is treating any immigrant appallingly and again against human rights.
A country where 120.000 were killed by the government decisions.
Think about it.

If instead of taking decisions that were so bad for people that it killed them (or they killed themselves), the government had taken guns to do it. If it had been let’s say Gambia or China, what would the world at large said?
What do ‘we’ say about a country repeatedly going against human rights?
And what does it say about a population who, at large, is accepting of it?

I think we are very close to a point where things can get ugly very quickly.
And with most people not even realising it. (Just like they dint seem to realise the issue with not protecting human rights - for themselves)

But yes maybe I’m also too pessimistic.

prettybird re the correlation between Brexit and capital/corporal punishment: holy shit, but that’s both scary and depressing.

*Postnotinhaste"

DW is German and has had to put up with "just a joke, present company excepted" comments for years. It was worse when we came here in the late 70s, particularly from older people. We'd thought it had then died down a bit, but recent on-line comments and newspaper coverage does seem to suggest that there's still some weird combination of fear and envy at work.

I've always found the Germans to be quite fond of the British and certainly not to bear them any ill-will. Now they just shake their heads and ask me what kind of madness has gripped the UK. Most of them can't imagine the kind of resentment we seem to bear against them 74 years after the war ended. They've made huge and largely successful efforts to deal with the issue and can't understand that we're still harking back to the war.

Many British people do seem to be suffering from some kind of misplaced inferiority complex which is only relieved by the thought that we beat 'em in the war, so it must be spouted as frequently as necessary to put the arrogant bastards back in their cage. This kind of thinking is simply unfathomable for most Germans.

Mark Francois' comments are simply beneath contempt, but it's obvious what he's trying to do (and evidence of his paranoid delusions).

Zimbabwe locking up kids at the moment. I've not read the BBC account, just headlines.

The Guardian are reporting that the BBC is in talks to shift business to Brussels post brexit.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/24/bbc-international-hq-belgium-brexit-netherlands-ireland-eu?fbclid=IwAR1cYJwklPNjkQi4Da-Y4Z_GHVB_4XD0-pYfRtPet4q0Dx5REyrZ7LcO_IQ

@umpteen sounds perfect, I take great pleasure in using my neighbour's old Mails to mop up dog piddle when my elderly wonky boy has an accident. Seeing those pages turn yellow is very satisfying.

Re: Germans, my local Brexiteers said they couldn't care less about the letter from Germany asking us to stay because we didn't want to be ruled by their leaders. Depressing mentality.

At this point I'd feel too embarrassed to stay in the EU. We look like intellectual pygmies.

@LucyLastic I am very sorry about the situation you find yourself in. The marginalisation and dare I say demonisation of the poor is very real. I just cannot understand why compassion seems to be so lacking on the part of much of the upper class and the political class (and esp in the intersection of those two groups). The massive and increasing socioeconomic inequality in much of Western society is perhaps the number one social ill of our time and has led to situations like Brexit and Trump as people flail about in search of an answer. Have you read about the young Congresswoman who was just elected in the midterms in the US? She is speaking truth to power, and people seem to be listening.

I do think there is another tranche of people who voted leave who are not vocal and are quite probably regretting their vote.

I know someone who voted leave because they wanted more money for the NHS. Wanted it so badly they believed the lies because they wanted it to be true.

Their partner has a severe mental illness. There have been times when she has needed to be hospitalised but there were no beds so my friend was left to care for her. Along with the jocular "you're such an expert by now, she's probably better off with you anyway". And told that they would section her if my friend let her leave the house alone and put herself in danger, that's if she was still alive by the point they found her one can only assume.

And that's not to include the gaps between appointments because there's not enough staff, the medication reviews that get put back because they've no appointments.

I think my friend voted leave in the absolute hope that his partner would get appropriate medical care, because successive governments had let him down and he would grab onto anything that might change that.

I spoke to him the other week and he said it's all such a fucking mess. I think he would vote remain if we had a second ref.

I think the vocal 'we won the war' leavers are one part of the vote. But I think there's another part who probably regret it, but wouldn't want to say so to their friends and family. And to be fair it's a difficult thing to admit.

I commented to my parents that I thought one upshot from Brexit was that it turns out many over 65s haven’t forgiven Germany for the war.
They were dismissive from their multicultural, intellectual (slight ivory tower) perspective as no-one they know thinks like that. (My mother spoke German before she spoke English although she never lived there - lived in Austria though).

They don’t spend much time online though, reading comments from people all over the country.

The anti European sentiment, that has been around since the Reformation, seems to have coalesced against Germany in particular.

I've always found the Germans to be quite fond of the British and certainly not to bear them any ill-will. Now they just shake their heads and ask me what kind of madness has gripped the UK. Most of them can't imagine the kind of resentment we seem to bear against them 74 years after the war ended. They've made huge and largely successful efforts to deal with the issue and can't understand that we're still harking back to the war.

While this is all entirely true, I think the lesson is if you want 100 years of good relations with your neighbours then don’t elect a genocidal facist who declares war on the world.

On that score I can see it from both sides. But I do think the British have to get over it now and stop using it as an excuse for a general national truculence.

QueenieInFrance, thank you and I agree it isn't only about Brexit. I live close to some big cities in West Yorkshire, and the racism and "othering" is terrible. It was definitely getting worse under New Labour prior to the Conservatives getting in.

Generations of families being put out of work when industry closed didn't help. When resources, even in terms of jobs, seem to be scarce, people seemed to feel resentment towards people who had family heritage overseas. As if their place at the table was being taken by someone who shouldn't have it. Terrible.

Yet, most of the time, a lack of transferable skills and a low level of educational attainment, meant that those who complained would never have got the available jobs anyway. But it is easier to blame someone else than look within.

LeClerc, I hope things improve for you