Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

[RedToothBrush]

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

From personal anacdata I'd strongly suggest a correlation between selfishness and leave voters. I don't know where it stems from (perhaps some point of deprivation in their childhoods?) but frequently my leaver friends say things like "it won't affect me because I work in teaching and we will always need teachers" or "I live near 3 farms so I won't have issues with food shortages" - both resent welfare (even though one of them claims some), both have superiority complexes in various areas and feel hard done by - they are smart but got average jobs/married average men. There's selfishness and jealousy against poor people who have done quite well for themselves. I saw a C4 voxpop of a lady interviewing people who live in Boughton (i'll link but is on fb) which speaks for itself. Some are ignorant, but some are purely selfish and vote against family members interests presumably through jealousy at their opportunities .

Thinking about the Brexit voters in my family. I don't know their views on the death penalty - it's not a topic of conversation at family barbecues. However... I suspect they wouldn't be dead set against it. I may be wrong, of course. I'm not going to ask because that is the sort of conversation that could go south very quickly. But I suspect. They certainly skew non-pc, iyswim.

I have just audited our supplies, made a list with expiry dates and now have a further list of things to get in. I feel a bit apologetic about doing it, but DH is on board - as he says, we'll look bloody silly if it does go wrong and we aren't ready. If it doesn't get eaten, we'll donate it to the food bank. I think they're going to need it. In the meantime, at the very least, it makes me feel a bit more in control of our fate and it means we have a buffer for any crash out scenario - not to mention the possibility of being snowed in (we were stuck for a week last year) etc.

The oil tank is two thirds full at the moment so we can't get the minimum order amount to fill it up, and we have lots of firewood and kindling. Matches and fire lighters have just been added to the supplies list.

This feels insane.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
May close to a Commons majority for her Brexit deal after she and ERG now likely to accept 1922 Committee demand to strip out the backstop;
www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8283033/theresa-may-commons-majority-brexit-deal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May close to winning Commons majority for divisive Brexit deal and could call for EU to axe hated Irish backstop
PM is making progress with negotiations for a better Brexit deal, but may need the EU's assistance to solve the Irish Backstop issue

Well that's going to be fun

Approving something which ISNT the WA... And the EU are against.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=bVV2Zk88beY

This is really interesting and shows how one woman escaped years of brainwashing by the vile Westboro Baptist church. It ties in with .Red’s post quite well.

I also think this is why refugees scare them so much - imagine someone coming over with only the clothes on their back and past trauma of war and doing better than someone who had a free education and health service! Instead of celebrating them or our benevolence, it just makes them feel even worse.

I read that also RTB , just confirms that our team are a bunch of bozos who don't understand the concept of a backstop.

My issue with Unions and their inability to make a big difference now is that they are cracking nuts with a sledgehammer and the way society is now with multiple sources of commodities, it needs to be far more nuanced. Working to rule is a start. The way that contracts are written seem to make 'strike' action disproportionately hard. 1 day 'strike' loses 1,3 day's pay for example.
Striking in the era of coalmining is one thing but the situation is different now. Listening to some union leaders (from a couple of years back) reveals such a blunt approach.

Hazardswans interesting comments re Trade Unions.

As a trade union rep I can say the reps I know are most definitely not in the pockets of the management. Although, we do know management well having spent a lot of time negotiating with them. It could appear that we are 'friendly' with them.

The point about toeing the line is legislation. We have to work within the rules, sometimes we have to urge members to agree to situations we don't like but it would be illegal to pursue action.

We currently have about 25% union density in the U.K. and reach a lot higher number in terms of centrally negotiated contracts.

The issue with trade unions is it is about members. They are not like an insurance policy you buy, joining a union is not a transaction.

We are only as strong as our members, I work voluntarily as do most reps. YOU are the union, and people don't want to invest time and emotion, public service and duty are not popular concepts. Or rather people like the concept but don't like the effort needed.

Workplaces that are heavily unionised do have significantly better terms and conditions though.

I agree hazardswans. In a former life I was a union rep, and it was positively encouraged to work with managers, under the guise of a 'partnership agreement'. I believe these were brought in by the Blair government. But of course being in partnership takes away the real power of the union.

The union I was in were useless, despite having thousands and thousands of members. The company held the real power and everything the union did was done in consultation with them. This pretty much defeated the point of the union tbh. There were some good reps I like to think that included me who challenged the company when needed, but generally the company got what they wanted because the union was weakened by being in partnership. Disgruntled employees then got even more disgruntled because it seemed like the company always won. It's no surprise that workers then see politics in the same way.

The unions are the reason the Labour party got saddled with Ed Milliband, and now Corbyn.

Not sure that it would be jealousy of opportunities at Broughton LonelyandTiredandLow. The aircraft factory (formerly de Havilland) has been there since the late 1940s and has always been a big local employer. I thought the man who said he voted for himself not his son was distinctly uncomfortable that he had maybe not thought about the consequences. DH had uncles who worked there in the 50s and his cousin was aghast at the stupidity of people voting to leave. "What were they thinking?" she said. I thought it was very clear from the interviews that they hadn't been thinking much at all.

PM is making progress with negotiations for a better Brexit deal, but may need the EU's assistance to solve the Irish Backstop issue

They still seem to be working in a one-sided bubble (is that even physically possible?), where they think they can discard the backstop just by wanting to. The EU has already said it's not on offer, but still the Brexit supporters persist in discussing it as though it's their decision alone. Likewise the "demand" for an extension.

I just hope the EU sticks to its guns; they've been remarkably united up to now, but there seem to be rumours that they may weaken their stance and reopen negotiations. All so bloody depressing.

The musings of PPs re. the imperceptible rise of fascism are frightening. Agree about the Code of the Woosters. Spode would fit right into the ERG. I can visualise him lounging and sneering on the back benches with his odious lickspittle Baker making goo-goo eyes at him.

Re. cats. I was never a great cat fan, but my children insisted we get one (ended up as two!) when they were younger. Inevitable happened and they buggered off to uni, leaving us with the cats. 15 years later, when both cats died, we decided not to get another one, as we're retired and wanted FOM (ha!).

A couple of years ago, my younger DS took in a rescue cat, but is presently living in rented accommodation (no pets allowed), so guess who's looking after the cat "just for the moment"?

Problem is (and I almost blush to admit it) he's a delightful cat and I've fallen deeply in love with him. I'm dreading the day when DS takes him back.

The unions are the reason the Labour Party exists!

They should separate now though.

In terms of unions working with management. The U.K. is fixated with confrontation. Union density in Germany and France is significantly lower than in the U.K. but more contracts and pay deals are negotiated centrally.

Unions are on the boards and automatically involved in negotiations about pay and t&cs. In countries where unions are intrinsically involved with negotiations pay and conditions are a lot better and there is less conflict.

In countries where unions work with management and are accepted automatically by management conditions for the workforce are better.

The power of the unions is controlled by legislation and its members. Unions are fully democratic organisations, you elect reps and organisers, they are as good as you make them - within the bounds of draconian legislation.

Yes missclimton - having watched the Westbro TED talk, I have noted I do still have issues with assuming bad intent. One of my leaver friends is very vocal about how people only have themselves to blame/poor people should be sterilised/thick people shouldn't be allowed to vote and although I have the last two points down, it is hard to forget some of the more vile rantings and assume these are deep rooted beliefs of most leavers. I've always valued my friend's honestly and willingness to be so open about her unpopular views, but it scares me when so many of them seem to be being picked up en-mass.

Great post Lonely and I totally agree.

Given that people with fairly low self esteem tend to make themselves feel better by looking down upon others, I do wonder whether that is a factor in Brexit.

The political narrative has been reinforced by the media to categorise people on benefits, immigrants, the disabled etc as "scroungers". The WC JAMs are then encouraged to look down upon these people and blame them.for the countries problems.

As we are obsessed with class in the UK, could it be the case that many WC wish to see themselves in a "class above" those on benefits, in order to elevate their own worth? They simultaneously get someone to blame and to feel better about their own JAM situation in the process.

Does this result in WC JAMs identifying more closely with the Tory narrative of who to blame, as opposed to the Labour's emphasis on those who need help?

Once people have someone to blame and look down upon, maybe they have a greater tendency to feel distain towards ANYONE they view as "other". Which likely includes the EU.

I could be talking rubbish, but it is certainly the attitude I have seen in some of my family (and their racism is part of the reason I am NC with some). They are "working class made good", look down on anyone poorer than them, whilst simultaneously hating the middle class because, despite now being wealthy, they don't "fit in" with the MC around them, in terms of values, culture and outlook.

Sorry, that was long!

Wow, just saw this and thought of the victim mentality which apparently is now trying to trend on twitter!

So is he expecting the 'state' to find him a new job or fund his new found retirement?

We are becoming like the US....where a lot of the people think that if you are poor you simply didn't work hard enough.

Nothing to do with sickness, disease, disability, sex or what family you were born into.

And the main propagators of this narrative?

Rich white men.

Brexit also ties in with the issues we have educating white, working class, boys.

They neither value nor respect education.

They then feel alienated by the liberal elite who base decisions on experts and methodology that is difficult to access if you haven't engaged in education.

We have known about this problem for decades and despite a small amount of effort under Blair we are not prepared to put in the effort and money required to resolve the issue.

Destiel, I totally agree.

Some family in the US still believe entirely in the "American Dream" of anyone being able to achieve anything. Despite them being educated, intelligent, multi-ethnicity liberals.

They don't dislike the poor, and can see the disadvantages that some people have, but cannot emotionally overcome the "American Dream" narrative.

Re people who are poor being marginalised, I am getting really scared. I'm a disabled single parent who is reliant on benefits and child maintenance.

I had a conversation with ExH the other day, making him promise to take care of DD if fascism rises here and it turns out that people like me are "for the chop". I'm not scared for me, but for DD. She needs both her parents. It was such a surreal conversation, but then as I said to ex, who would have thought the 1930s would lead to the Holocaust?

Makes me feel teary to be truthful.

Mousse I thought that yesterday - that meme of 'Gary' holding up a sign saying "immigrants took my job!" then underneath it "Yes Gary, Ahmed Khan came in and stole your cardiology career from you with your 1 GCSE in RE and solitary tooth." - paraphrasing.

What do we do with a glut of badly educated men who have got through life by ignoring their ignorance and focusing on fast cars, beer and football? We all see them raising their sons in their image. Education is a dirty word for some.

I do know I am probably being overdramatic though so please ignore my silliness. It feels self absorbed. Sorry.

The Gary meme in itself is persecuting the poor in a way, continuing the stereotype.

Micheal Marmot has some very good YouTube films on equality. The idea that privilege is inconsequential to your lifestyle and health is a complete myth and he relishes telling that to Americans. Worth a google - am off out now, back later.
(weirdly had to resist putting a 'x' in there! )

I am not wanting pity or anything like that but I would like to say that what would be a lovely retirement is being buggered up by 4 white very well educated women who are deliberately preventing me doing my bit for looking after my DC.