Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

[RedToothBrush]

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

How ironic for people who profess to despise Europeans so much, Germans in particular, to then adopt the worst ideology those very same could ever have come up with!
They are intellectual sheep. The English turning Nazi would be the best victory Goebbels could ever have dreamed of!!

A good night's sleep and a little reflection on the last few posts and I feel a lot better.

It's ironic when we speak of division. It's a horrible thing and yet I've had some of the most rewarding and important experiences in my life when exposed to those divisions and forced to confront them. Even though its hard.

I rarely believe that people are bad. Damaged. Misguided. Yes. But bad. No.

There are some. Largely driven by selfishness, vanity and arrogance tainted by the touch of power or belief in divinity of some description. But they are the exception rather than the rule.

Most are just trying to get by and survive.

Although I am not a believer in a PV, I did take the time to campaign with them on one occasion. I think the campaign held merit in ensuring the debate on options continued, I just don't think what was needed to develop it further ever emerged due to a lack of leadership and proper vision. When you did engage with leavers on politics, after the initial confrontation, I found it rewarding and found common ground. There was one guy I spoke to for over half an hour and it started badly but by the end it was really friendly, we agreed on huge amounts and actually had a proper good old fashioned debate about issues. We both ended the conversation with respect for each other and having had an enjoyable experience. When we started talking he had been waggling his finger at another campaigner. We had a good friendly handshake at the end having de-esculated the situation.

I've had similar experience in NI and in learning to understand the IRA bombing of my home town.

I think social medias great weakness is that it never allows you to get to that stage. It take time and effort.

It's hard to do on MN but it's possible. I try, but often fail, to do it on here. And often I think the effect on lurkers is more effective because you don't have the dynamic of 'losing face' or feeling the need to 'win' the argument.

And above all else I think this is where people going wrong. It's the belief in the fallacy of 'winning'. Note how Trump uses the concept all the time.

Society never gains through this 'winning' mentality, because by definition if there are winners there are also losers. To move forward and progress, everyone needs to feel they have a stake in the future and that's why and when democracy as a concept works. If people feel excluded disenfranchised or left behind that's when trouble brews. It leaves the immoral able to exploit grievances. You have to bring people along with you rather than force an issue through authoritarian means. And that's a much more difficult thing to do initially. It doesn't produce immediate results. And forcing an issue just creates resentment.

We need to find a way back to knowing and understanding this and being prepared to put in the hard work to achieve it. The alternative is we will come into conflict only to discover it the other side, after much grief.

Anyway, have a good day, I'm not about too much. I'm off for a probably ill advised afternoon drinking session!

A very coherent argument... he has won me around.... remember we are pursuing brexit because of people like him....... and he is not in a tiny minority either, between 1 in 5 and 1in 8 adults in uk are classed as functionally illiterate and innumerate.
Having never voted before, they came out and voted.

PS fascinating to see all the suggestions that the Stone indictment references Bannon personally and he's liable to be the next one for the Mueller treatment.

His proximity to British politicians then becomes 'interesting'

@pickardje carried an interesting story about Johnson and his association with a DUP donor last night, which opened up a few questions. It carried echoes of the dynamics playing out in the US in no small way. Even if there is no link, they are obviously spiritual bedfellows...

Great post RTB ^

{It is sinister and weird to me that this transition has happened so rapidly over two years without a unanimous back lash from others in power.}
This observation, to me is why the UK should leave. It has to know where it is going and a 'nation' that is floundering about is simply damaging to anyone near it.
The UK must of course organise departing as smoothly as possible so that none are unduly put at risk. Business needed to know 2 years ago where the UK is heading so the decision must be as swift as possible.
Despite banging on about it for several months, no one has yet suggested what the UK is realistically going to do to replace the jobs that are on the move to the EU.

PCPlums, I would like to steal your black and white kitten. I won't of course and I hope the two of them make you happy, you need it.
I think I am correct in thinking that 'tabby' and black/white cats are a bit of a mongrel mix? I have always found them to be the nicest natured, maybe worth a small thought.

Another minister coming out against no deal - suggesting a "free vote"

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47012523

Which finally hit a spot in me that's been niggling these past two years.

What's happened to constituencies ? Surely MPs first "loyalty" is to the people who voted them into office - irrespective of what the people in the constituencies either side voted ?

Because from where I'm sitting, there's an existential question looming around the nature of voting itself.

Arguably the contradiction at the heart of Brexit - a contradiction no one has yet vocalised - is the narrative that in order to somehow engage with the politically disaffected, we need cause political disaffection.

There was a suggestion some people have started to realise this ... the stories where Theresa May effectively said it was more important to pander to those who only voted once over those that didn't ?

Outside England - Scotland and Northern Ireland - it's much more obvious ... why are Tory Scots MPs so keen to ignore their constituents in order to enforce an English sentiment ?

Apologies for babbling ... my morning swim was cancelled due to lack of lifeguards, so I'm not so enervated

Excellent post Red, thank you for all you do, enjoy your afternoon.

Hello, I am new here (this thread, I mean) but have found it interesting.....
I read an article this week that explained there is another deadline: 1st July.
Because the EU is holding their elections in May and every country which is a member must hold elections in order for the new European parliament to convene in July.
So the problem with an extension of art.50 for 3 months is that the UK would still be in the EU and would have to hold elections in time to choose their new MEPs .... otherwise the whole validity of the European parliament could be called into question.
The EU can't let the UK's shilly-shallying jeopardise it's own legal position.

There's also the matter of allowing EU citizens still in the UK to vote in UK elections, should timescales be delayed. Which is not trivial, because I don't need to google or ask anyone anything to know that HMG haven't been doing any work to build the necessary register.

So delaying A50 means having to somehow back calculate whos eligible to vote, and the slew of court cases for people denied that right.

Fun days indeed.

LadyinLavende
Welcome!
As you will have gathered there are many possible deadlines being thrown around. At present the only legally verified one is departure on 29 March. The others are all speculation about how far things can be pushed back, but all would need confirmation with the EU.
In terms of getting infrastructure and personnel up to speed, the EU would probably appreciate a bit of a delay but the EU elections are 2 may (?) and they want the UK to decide what the heck it is doing before then. For any delay, the UK has to formally ask, and the EU has to formally grant it.

Surely MPs first "loyalty" is to the people who voted them into office - irrespective of what the people in the constituencies either side voted ?

No, I believe that MP's first duty is to the country and then to all their constituents regardless of whether they voted for them or even whether they have a vote. They absolutely should not only be "loyal" to the people who voted for them, although many are.

(I appreciate that this might be what you meant but if so you didn't quite choose the right words!)

Talking about "loyalty" is part of the problem, see Chris Grey's excellent piece which may already have been shared but which can't be shared enough. chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-poisonous-politics-of-betrayal.html

Very thoughtful post RTB

Take Dennis Skinner - MP for bolsover.

Bolsover is an ex mining town and an area of deprivation.

They voted leave.

Leave will further damage bolsover and it's environs. Perhaps irreparably. I can foresee sorry to be so doom and gloom that people from places like bolsover become economic migrants after brexshit oh the irony!!

I'd laugh if it weren't so fucking tragic.

So the problem with an extension of art.50 for 3 months is that the UK would still be in the EU and would have to hold elections in time to choose their new MEPs .... otherwise the whole validity of the European parliament could be called into question.

This is being sold as a big problem by people who don't want an extension, but I don't think it is really.

I think it tends to mean that any extension would need to be short (only to July) or much longer (eg to the end of the year - and if this happens I'd put money on a further extension. Once you've established the principle ...)

I don't believe there is anything to prevent EP elections being held and I would be surprised if it hadn't been quietly prepared for. It's not ideal but ... nothing about brexit is ideal.

Extending primarily a political problem, and hence capable of being resolved.

I guess one pro for the HofL?

They arent worried about losing their majority at the next GE?

I regularly visit Bolsover for the castle - English Heritage flagship one. It is awesome and great facilities for kids. Just sayin'.

Lonely - the diagonal "cut" was where the tablet broke when I lifted it out of its Swiss roll tin in order to break it in to bits - but the diagonal pieces are cook's perks

Some very interesting posts already this morning.

My very elderly mother recently commented that when she was young, postwar, it was generally that working class people voted Labour and middle class people voted Conservative. She’s puzzled that something of a reversal has taken place. Why are the working class voting Tory, she asked, and the better off aligning with the socialists?

A generalisation maybe, but an interesting point. How and why has that change occurred?

I watched 'Newsnight' last night - I watch very little TV at all - and was genuinely astonished by its complete lack of content. On the day that the EMA closed its doors in this country and politics is in absolute turmoil, they spent what felt like 15 minutes on Trump, did a puff piece on hitchhiking around the country talking to randoms about Brexit and then reviewed about three newspaper headlines. Is that normal??? In my head it was a serious news programme, but apparently not.

destiel we listen to Bertie Wooster as a bedtime audio book every night. Keeps the bedtime scary thoughts away!

Me too bellini

I recommend Lucy Worsleys book on it and William cavendish.

I do not, however, rate the cafe

Also thinking about Red's post, I think we are basically trying to do politics by soundbite, and it shows. It's the opposite of evidence-based policy making, and instead of just trying it in specific policy areas (e.g Cameron and Osborne's housing policies, almost all dumped now because they were disastrous ideas) we are now applying it across the whole of our political economy.

Hester Brexit is about values not left vs right.

You have always had Labour supporters who are socially conservative and Conservative voters who are socially liberal.

Very, very generally

Remainers are the 'liberals' who support feminism, equality, freedom of speech, pro choice, anti capital and corporal punishment.

Brexit are pro discipline, anti immigration, nationalistic, patriotic, rule following, nuclear family supporting, anti political correctness types who long for a return to imperial measurements.

You can get tories who support the liberal agenda and old fashioned labour supporters who like a bit of discipline.