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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
59
PerverseConverse · 26/01/2019 00:27

Please can we not let frictions arise between us on this thread. This thread is a supportive and informative one for those of us who want to discuss the latest news, developments, anxieties, plans, prepping, baking, and cat photos. It's a place of refuge for those who's head are fucked by all the news stories and are trying to make sense of things. Let's not allow the government to divide us here. They have caused enough division, don't let them in here.

SusanWalker · 26/01/2019 00:37

Very jealous of all the lovely cats. I would love to have a cat. My grandmother used to breed Abyssinians and once sold one to Wayne Sleep.

I think we are all aware of what might be coming, more so than a lot of people who don't really follow the news. But not everyone can stand outside parliament or man stalls. I can't do anything because of caring for DS. All I can do is follow things as best I can, and pick up tips from Bellini to help insure against the worst even just a small bit. And I'm grateful to everyone who does manage to show the government how we feel on behalf of all of us.

Things are stressful and sometimes it's nice to let a little pressure out, be that with cat pictures or recipes or gardening tips. It's what makes us human. Finding a little comfort in like minded company.

Well that's how I feel about these threads anyway.

OlennasWimple · 26/01/2019 00:48

Wine Cheers, Red

Apileofballyhoo · 26/01/2019 01:05

Banana I'm sorry the hat thing upset you. I'm very worried about fascism too. We're at the stage now where an MP thinks tearing up letters and ranting about Germans being arrogant live on the BBC is acceptable behaviour. If I were German - and iirc there is a German woman following these threads who posted a few threads back - I'd be getting the hell out of the UK.

I'm in Ireland and I'm Irish and I don't know if I'd be able to go and protest peacefully everyday if it was my country to which this were happening. Because I have a DS who has to get to school and part time work and we don't have a lot of spare money for fuel to go to protests. I'm sure that many on this thread are similar.

So people spend time here posting and reading and informing and learning. It might be a help, it might not. It doesn't mean people aren't equally horrified and worried. I'm worried about people I'm close to that live in the UK, second or third or fourth generation immigrants, Irish, Indian, French, Tunisian, Jewish ancestry.

I hope it will all be ok.

bananacake2134 · 26/01/2019 01:19

Apileofballyhoo
I appreciate that so much. Thank you. Not that it matters, but I've got some Irish heritage, amongst many others, but not quite enough for the passport thingy. Still might head over there soon though. Your kindness means a lot. I went to Dublin in September and fell in love with the town. x

Apileofballyhoo · 26/01/2019 01:58

You might be able to take advantage of the common travel area thing if you think things are heading in a very bad direction.

What worries me most is that I'm pretty sure that most people in most countries just don't think the worst is going to happen. Until it does.

I knew a couple growing up who had been very very wealthy in a different country and had to flee dramatically (I was quite a small child and I can't remember where exactly he was from). They must have had some kind of social welfare or something, though maybe he had managed to get some money out with him, who knows. My DM knew his wife a little - I think she might have been Irish and that's why they came to Ireland when things went tits up. Maybe he was lucky he had an Irish wife. And lucky they got out.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2019 03:02

@PCplums 💐 So sorry to hear that UC is buggering you around
It's such a cruel system

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2019 03:16

grinchly 💐 occasionally one has an exceptional pet(s), that forever leaves a paw-print in your heart

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2019 03:52

banana I think Trump - and some of the ERG - are fascists

imo Trump is a totally evil person - horrific that he was elected to lead the world's superpower -
and would be completely capable of mass extermination of African Americans - and any opposition, like socialists or liberals

What so far prevents the fascists in Western democracies doing what they really want is the innate decency of most people in all countries.

However, it is worrying how emboldened the fascists have become and how they are allowed to intimidate opposition, especially in the UK and USA.

re Britain, but if a No Deal Brexit caused the predicted economic crash - and the economy didn't recover by 2024, as Carney / BoE predict but kept spiralling down, then the defence by ordinary decent people would weaken.

I think our decades of progressive democracy in the UK & US remain a strong enough defence - remembering the near starvation level that ordinary wc people like my dad's family endured in the 1920s & 1930s NE without turning to extreme politics

However, I expect that real hardship could significantly increase the current nastiness and the undercurretns of violence

Fascism is rising across the whole West, but the effect of Brexit will obviously be oerwhelmingy suffered by Britain, so we must be especilly vigilant
(I expect the EU to rally round Ireland and that the RoI will recover within 2-3 years, then rocket onwards having replace the UK as the English-speaking gateway to the EU market)

lonelyplanetmum · 26/01/2019 05:24

So I'm awake early again..
I'm worried about people I'm close to that live in the UK, second or third or fourth generation immigrants, Irish, Indian, French, Tunisian, Jewish ancestry.

This worries me too. That piece on betrayal from the perspicacious Chris Grey blog from yesterday said “...many Brexiters have proved to be unappeasable in their demands. Thus the same people who a few years ago ‘just wanted to be like Norway or Switzerland’ came to say that only hard Brexit would be pure enough, and when offered hard Brexit have moved to saying that only no deal has the purity of true or ‘clean’ Brexit”

It is sinister and weird to me that this transition has happened so rapidly over two years without a unanimous back lash from others in power.

It is illogical to suppose that an extreme Brexit is the end of the story for those that seek it. Inevitably those with a shifting agenda (which has moved immeasurably over a short period) will keep on
shifting it. Where can this agenda go? No international co-operation with other continents? An apartheid type system or mass ‘ re’ patriations or something?

Where are we headed? How far are we aping the US? Trump already ended Temporary protected status for an estimated 244,590 migrants from El Salvador, Haiti, Nicaragua and Syria.
Has he definitely overtly threatened to deport more lately ?

MsLucyLastic · 26/01/2019 05:35

Interesting article about the link between MAGA hats, the white hoods of the KKK, and the Covington High incident in the US this week.

www.thewrap.com/alyssa-milano-red-hats-maga-hats-in-trumps-america-its-not-enough-to-not-be-a-racist/

There seems to be little doubt that the US is well on the way to fascism. Some ERG are clearly eager to follow the US and take the UK down the same path. Steve Brannon advising JRM chills me.

What I don't understand is, if fascism DID take over the US and UK, once the main players have their money and power, then what? Sorry, I know that sounds ridiculously naive perhaps, but what is the long term aim of these people, once they have acquired their spoils?

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 05:40

Me too, Lonely! At least it’s quiet at present after yesterday’s shenanigans. Anyway, as you do of an early morning, I was reminding myself about fascism in the UK:
www.theguardian.com/books/2017/sep/08/fascism-must-be-resisted-wherever-it-raises-its-head
(Just one of the many interesting links). I find reading literature from the 1930s a different experience now compared to reading it when I was in my teens/twenties. There are nuances and implications I pick up now and missed then, and it oddly seems far more immediate and relevant. Even Roderick Spode is less comic, more menacing.
Might doze off again for a bit though!
PS love your cat

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 05:44

Bertie Wooster on Roderick Spode:
It was as if Nature had intended to make a gorilla, and had changed its mind at the last moment
Who do we know of who is often referred to as a gorilla?

mathanxiety · 26/01/2019 05:46

I'm worried about people I'm close to that live in the UK, second or third or fourth generation immigrants, Irish, Indian, French, Tunisian, Jewish ancestry.

Me too. Friends, relatives - their lives are well established. Their children are up to their necks in the education system. They own houses and flats. They have networks of friends, and many have British In-laws.

Some have become part of the melting pot of London and adjusting to the less melted pot of Dublin would not be easy, especially as some are older.

Meanwhile my own American DCs are all realising that their Irish passports are as valuable as gold. The one who is a civil servant has spent the last few weeks sending out CVs, and now is looking forward to getting paid while back temporarily under the arrangement recently announced by 45, to the point where she will only be missing one paycheck. Whoop-de-doo.

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 05:48

Actually I forgot how funny Wodehouse is and will be visiting the library today. I even laughed at this Wiki entry
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roderick_Spode

lonelyplanetmum · 26/01/2019 05:56

Morning Born. That article was very interesting. I had no idea that Mosley's crew continued their agenda after the war. The horrors of the holocaust were so recent and no doubt towering over everyone, yet still the Blackshirts continued. I've never understood how the ' honourable' Diana Mitford could embrace all that either.

Thanks for cat compliment, yours is lovely too. Your comment about her political education really made me laugh.

mathanxiety · 26/01/2019 06:02

I want to second Apileofballyhoo's comments to Banana.

Wrt the hat thing - I am in the US and dressing up in a MAGA hat where I live would not be seen as a matter of levity at all. Wearing one as ordinary attire would be seen as inflammatory and anyone wearing such a hat to the local high school would be asked to remove it.

'Hats off' (as it were) to you for protesting. I don't think we can assume anything about the sturdiness of the political or constitutional structures in place now either in the US or in the UK. Donald Trump drove straight through everything the experts thought they knew about politics and the Constitution in the US, and in the UK outright and unashamed class warfare has been carried on for many years now, and a certain little group of Machiavellian adventurers whose motto is 'fortune favours the brave/ strong/ bold' is trying to effect a coup.

borntobequiet · 26/01/2019 06:12

And how did I never know about this...
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csv25d

lonelyplanetmum · 26/01/2019 06:14

,,,once the main players have their money and power, then what? Sorry, I know that sounds ridiculously naive perhaps, but what is the long term aim of these people, once they have acquired their spoils?

MsLucy you and I are worrying along the same lines. Where can these insatiable shifting beliefs go?

Reading your post juxtaposed with Born's post made me finally understand something. Thank you. Of the Leavers I know I feel most betrayed, hurt etc by my friend's Mum. I've always wondered why her banging the drum for Leave bothers me the most. After FIL is a family member and although I have cried in debates with him ultimately I expect his attitudes anyway.

With my good friend's Mum I must have expected more of her. We have holidayed together etc. She seems otherwise kind and I thought she had a sound moral core that I could trust. So she had further to fall in my eyes when her xenophobia revealed itself.

It made me remember My first boss when I first started working 30 years ago. She was an elderly Jewish woman, who was a bit of a trail blazer in her field. She said her first fleeting thought when meeting new people was always ' would they have hidden me during WWII if needed? '

I'm not Jewish but as a result I think this when I meet people too. I had put my friend's Mum in the category of those who would take risks to protect others.Her style of Brexiteering has made me realise my classification was wrong I think.

TheElementsSong · 26/01/2019 07:25

ballyhoo lonely and everyone else overnight - good posts, and I have the same worries. I'm sleeping worse and worse now, can't get to sleep with the thoughts churning in my head and then up early the next morning.

On Westministenders we've been saying for ages what Chris Grey said: they're never going to be appeased, the "betrayal" narrative is one that demands more and more, seeks greater and greater purity, and invents victimhood for any excuse. I don't know where their ultimate vision is going to go, only that the Overton window has shifted hugely in just a few short years and a frightening number of my fellow citizens are fully on board with it. And there is of course the selfish part of me that knows it's going to be people like me and my children who will be in their crosshairs next, because we're obviously non-white, despite being British.

I usually post/talk in a jokey or sarcastic way, because that's how I cope (publicly) with the horror.

DGRossetti · 26/01/2019 07:31

RTB

No newspaper round up tonight! Yay! As far as I can see every newspaper has decided we need a day off from Brexit on the front page

As predicted Grin ?

Well Brendas speech was well-timed ... it allows the weekend (when there's no parliament and MPs tend to disperse to their seats) for less public reflection and review.

GD12 · 26/01/2019 07:40

If MPs wont vote for a paltry 3 month delay on Brexit then they'll never avoid a hard Brexit.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/25/yvette-coopers-plan-to-see-off-no-deal-brexit-hangs-in-the-balance

LonelyandTiredandLow · 26/01/2019 07:44

My friend posted this last week remembering the 43

It frustrates me that remainers/people who I know don't want Brexit aren't as 'bothered' as me - avoid my posts on FB, which I feel are a public service. The fact we have, as a nation, rolled over so easily is what scares me the most. Before the ref I was convinced labour would get in next GE - we had had enough austerity, people were feeling revolutionary but united. I'm not a labour supporter, but that unity was strong! That is why I think Brexit was a coup. Tories knew they had fucked up, maybe not Cameron, but the ERG lot saw there chance at least. It's kept them in power against all of the grass root feeling that they were majorly fucking up the country and people had had enough.

Now we have working poor, UC, austerity continues and I assume extra Brexit Tax will soon start - if it's not named as such. We will be paying more for our food with a vastly decreased sterling, jobs will have gone and we won't have as much choice in shops as we have been used to for decades.

I personally think a lot of leavers will be so full of pride they will try to turn this into some eco-friendly jaunt, like camping. Others will be raging, and don yellow vests. They will never admit this was because of Brexit.

Remainers will either leave the country, if they can, or bunker down and resolve never to let the idiots close. Mass class divides have already been established, so this will deepen. Divide and conquer. Top gets more money for less, we get less human rights, the poorest die out more in a form of ethnic cleansing. Social cleansing has been happening in London for decades and we've not managed to do anything about it. It will now spread across the country. I imagine people in yellow vests will begin being far more overtly racist and people will be hunted down. This is exactly why I want to leave the country. I am so scared my child is having the same education has half of the country, people are generally apathetic and our news/journalism doesn't actually contain facts )or present facts when faced with lies) in a large proportion of shows. It's the start of a totalitarian state in my, admittedly overly anxious, mind.

I realised a long time ago that I would never ever kiss or go out with a leaver. It's stronger than politics.

On a lighter note, Pretty I love tablet...but the diagonal cut is irking me Grin and i've never heard of the cup of milk! I need to make some again now...

RosaPalma · 26/01/2019 08:22

Ben, is a numeracy wizard and here we have him telling Ireland exactly what's what with regard to Brexit and the border:
m.youtube.com/watch?v=FkxzTryGiyM&feature=player_embedded

Destiel · 26/01/2019 08:24

I heartily recommend you all read "the code of the woosters" by p g Wodehouse

It was the first book of his I read I think, prob his best.

I might dig it out myself later!