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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
59
1tisILeClerc · 25/01/2019 14:18

{ I may just wander up into the hills and gaze at said sheep speculatively with possible designs on an early conversion to lunch}
Just don't give them a name beforehand or you might end up vegetarian. On the other hand sheep are very stupid so that may not be a problem. Shaun is not a documentary!

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 14:25

More of those dangerous EU laws coming up that the govt will want to avoid:

European Commission@EUCommission

Work-life balance:
Good news for families in Europe

We welcome the provisional agreement by @EuroparlEN and @EUCouncil on our proposal for a new rules on work-life balance for parents and carers

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 14:26

I always remind myself that things aren't personal and that lots more people read and lurk than post.

I try and read as much as I can posted by others. I can't physically acknowledge and respond to everyone. Its definitely not personal.

I posted the Chrisbrexitblog earlier today but its clearly been missed by a few. I'm glad it has been. I'm not going to be grumpy that it got missed. Stuff being reposted frequently happens.

There literally are too many things going on!

People DO read stuff even if it's not commented on.

OP posts:
Spudlet · 25/01/2019 14:28

Have skim rtft, and goodness it moves fast. I have nothing of use to add to the current events side, but I did call and order a copy of my birth cert today, will then get dad's with the info from mine, then grandda's with the info from his, and fingers crossed I'll then have the info I need to take dual citizenship a step closer. We are also going to evaluate our stores this weekend and I will start doing a targetted extra shop to fill the gaps.

As an aside - there is an irony in the fact that for centuries, British policies led to Irish people having to emigrate to survive. And now, British policies are pushing British people like me to look to Ireland in case we need to emigrate there... I'm not sure I've articulated that terribly well, but I hope you see what I'm getting at.

I ranted at / to DH at length about all this last night. His attitude is that we are where we are, and how we got here is out of our control and therefore not worth worrying about. But I can't help but be angry at the series of bloody stupid decisions that have led us to this point. Even though he's right, we do just have to do what we can to get through. It didn't have to be this way. And it makes me so angry!

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 25/01/2019 14:30

Lonely belated Thsnks for that info about the courts.
In the 13 years 2003–2016 there were only 63 judgments handed down by the ECJ on UK infringements. This is 4.9 UK cases per year. Just under half 29 of those related to the environment

As I said in my post to Louise yesterday, the environment is my field. In the majority of the 29 cases you mention which incidentally is far more than envy other country the U.K. was arguing against the EU where a Directive had not been implemented correctly by the U.K. .

Essentially they wanted to be able to wreck a special place designated by experts in the U.K. These cases were usually taken by people such as the RSPB or Buglife when the SoS made a bad decision. (They usually ended up as planning appeals )

In addition for some reason the U.K. has joined with other tiny corporations on some occasions to fight the ECJ . I always have found it inexplicable that the U.K. financially supported Galway City Council in one case (they lost! ) so that was money well spent Hmm.

I am very glad that the ECJ is there otherwise we would have lost many of our special places and special wildlife.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 14:30

Brexit Impact Tracker:

How Businesses Are Preparing for Brexit, Deal or No Deal

Good resource - lists & summaries.
Lets you track all industries, or filter for just one

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/brexit-impact-tracker/?

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 25/01/2019 14:30

One day I'll manage to keep up!
Thanks red

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 14:33

Ed Conwayy@EdConwaySky*

Punchy. John Neill, chairman of Unipart, one of the UK’s biggest manufacturing firms, tells
@AdamParsons1

“Liam Fox’s credibility is extremely low…
No deal would create the risk of a cascade of failure in the supply chain and could risk the future of the UK car industry”

Inniu · 25/01/2019 14:35

Leo Varadkar stating that in the event of a no deal and the UK breaking the GFA it could mean a hard border, including soldiers on the border.

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brexit-soldiers-may-return-to-the-border-varadkar-warns-1.3770491?mode=amp

wherearemychickens · 25/01/2019 14:52

Sorry Red - didn't see that you had posted it already!

Hazardswans · 25/01/2019 14:58

Someone go tell TM and co that they are mortal...

(I'm going on a phone ban now to get jobs done....I swear I am...)

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
DGRossetti · 25/01/2019 14:59

news.sky.com/story/national-security-will-be-severely-weakened-in-no-deal-brexit-former-security-chiefs-11616825

National security will take 'years' to rebuild in event of 'no-deal' Brexit

The former head of MI6 says any Brexit makes security difficult to manage but "the harder the Brexit, the greater the damage".

(contd)

I hope he loses his pension for daring to talk down Brexit.

DGRossetti · 25/01/2019 15:07

Meanwhile, bumbling around AIBU, and a thread about someone seen wearing a Make America Great Again baseball cap set me off wondering why the Brexiteers and their fellow travellers haven't yet hit upon a similar item of clothing they could all wear to show us their majority (oo err missis ....)

Or have they, and I missed it ?

Maybe a savvy entrepreneur could correct that ? Ever since William Hague normalised baseball caps in the UK, they're now popular apparel. You could even have "Brexit Means Brexit" as a slogan as meaningless as MAGA ?

(Looks at clock ... as expected. Coffee time ...)

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 15:09

(FT paywall)
The UK Conservative party is struggling to attract money from its big financial backers, with internal concerns growing about how it could fund a snap general election campaign.

https://www.ft.com/content/4323399a-1fca-11e9-b2f7-97e4dbd3580d

Disquiet is rife among the party’s donors over Theresa May’s leadership, the lack of a clear policy agenda and paralysis over Brexit.

One of the Tory party’s leading fundraisers has told friends that after a successful year in fundraising, “January has been dry but not for alcoholic reasons”.

One former minister said the party should be concerned they have had “no donors since Christmas” and are “facing emerging financial difficulties”.

Disgruntled donors have split into two camps:
Brexiters opposed to Mrs May’s strategy for leaving the EU,
and the business network built up under the leadership of her predecessor David Cameron.

Both sides are “sitting on their wallets” until the party finds a new direction, said one veteran party campaigner.

The financial situation is complicated by behind-the-scenes manoeuvrings of potential leadership candidates.
^
Those likely to run to succeed Mrs May^

  • including former Brexit secretaries Dominic Raab and David Davis, and former foreign secretary Boris Johnson -
are said to be “putting feelers out” to donors about future financial support. 🤔 ^ Another former minister said: “Donors are all looking to invest in the future and that means potential leadership candidates.”^ 🤔

Mr Johnson recently received £10,000 from JCB, one of the UK’s largest manufacturers, before delivering a speech at their headquarters that was widely seen as a leadership pitch.

Mr Davis has also taken a job with the company as an “external adviser”, with an annual salary of £60,000 for 20 hours’ work.

DGRossetti · 25/01/2019 15:19

and the business network built up under the leadership of her predecessor David Cameron.

When I saw pre-PM Cameron (I was 2 metres from him - no one else wanted to sit in the front Grin) two things jumped out at me. The first was that he had a pretty good idea of the UK, it's history how it got to where it is (this was 2009) and what it's best chances in the 21st century were. It may not have come across in later years, but he was a clearly passionate European.

The other thing was a distinct unease with the fact that the clear anti-Labour sentiment that had built up by then was being expressed in "why don't we send them all home" words - (Yes, that's an actual quote from the meeting). And to his credit, he spent well over 30 minutes dealing with peoples grumbles about immigration.

And if people like anedata, he had no questions about the NHS, in that session. He actually had to apologise for changing the topic but said he had hoped to be able to tell people about the Tories plans for the NHS.

For those who remember, a lot of "Cameron Direct" events were videoed and put on the Conservative Party website.

Not this one.

It's clear there are two Tory parties, and two Labour parties.

Spudlet · 25/01/2019 15:19

You could even have "Brexit Means Brexit" as a slogan as meaningless as MAGA ?

You'd have to have it in a very small font. Or perhaps on fold-out wings?🤔

Surely a Union Jack embalzoned unicorn shitting a rainbow would suffice?

Destiel · 25/01/2019 15:25

We are so fucked.

Permanentlydisaffected · 25/01/2019 15:26

polly you mustn't take it personally, I change my name constantly and post the odd thing but no-one normally notices which is fine as my contributions are fairly lame. I asked a question yesterday and regular posters are usually very good at patiently explaining things! I read these threads avidly, I'm ill in bed with shingles atm so have plenty of time on my hands. They are so informative Smile.

borntobequiet · 25/01/2019 15:26

This

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
PestymcPestFace · 25/01/2019 15:27

MI6 heads on Brexit, it is a mixed show

1999–2004 : Sir Richard Dearlove
“Please ensure that your MP (Member of Parliament) votes against this bad agreement and supports a sovereign Brexit on WTO rules,”
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-security/uk-ex-defence-chiefs-warn-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-idUKKCN1P41RA
brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/2018/11/29/response-to-coverage-of-a-richard-dearlove-letter-in-the-sun

2004–2009 : Sir John Scarlett
Britain should stay in the EU. Former head of MI6 Sir John Sawers gives evidence on Brexit to the House of Lords EU External Affairs Sub-Committee in the House of Lords, London, where he warned that spending on the military, intelligence and diplomacy may have to increase in order to maintain the UK's influence on the world stage after Brexit.

2009–2014 : Sir John Sawers
"The government is operating under a mandate from the referendum. It needs to negotiate the best possible deal it can and get that through parliament. But if that fails and we're left to leave the European Union without a deal, that would be really, really damaging for this country and I think then there would be a very strong case to putting that back to a second referendum."

2014–present: Alex Younger
Thinks Russia may be behind Brexit
www.thesaint-online.com/2018/12/exclusive-mi6-chief-talks
twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1069747527757586432

Permanentlydisaffected · 25/01/2019 15:27

Diestel that's the sort of thing I normally post and wouldn't expect a reply but I'm nodding along with you!

PCPlumsTruncheon · 25/01/2019 15:28

lonely Thanks so much for the info about the ECJ, it’s good to have some facts at my disposal when my DPs start talking about taking control of our laws.
I salute the people covering billboards with quotes from the referendum - no downsides, easiest deal in human history etc etc.
I’ve said this before but Leavers have changed the narrative somewhere along the line and are claiming that they always said that it would be hard in the short term but worth it to get our freedom and sovereignty back, no pain no gain etc.
NO YOU FUCKING DID NOT SAY THAT.
There would be no downside, remember?
Polly Don’t take it personally. Mumsnet is a huge site and the Brexit boards have been exceptionally busy recently,
When I first joined Mumsnet, I used to get really pissed off if I posted something and, 3 pages later, a regular poster (or Mumsnet Royalty as they were known) would say exactly the same thing and everyone would start saying what a brilliant insightful post it was Hmm

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 15:40

David Henig summarises the Peter Foster thread on the NI border.

David Henig@davidheniguk
Latest on the Irish border can be summarised as "of course there would need to be border checks in a no-deal scenario but this is too politically sensitive to talk about so we talk in riddles instead which just encourages the wrong people"

And mostly cross fingers and hope Parliament eventually ignores the biggest obstacle to the deal, the PM herself, and votes for it anyway.

OP posts:
Apileofballyhoo · 25/01/2019 15:43

spudlet can't remember if I posted this to you already but your DH would be covered to work in Ireland under common travel area rules, and apply for citizenship after 3(?) years I think, because of having an Irish spouse.

Moussemoose · 25/01/2019 15:45

And Destiel sums up the whole thread nicely.

We are so fucked

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