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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

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Thread gallery
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1tisILeClerc · 25/01/2019 13:29

Mostly aches and pains, probably Vit D deficiency.
I could go out so it wasn't total.
Being on here prompts me to remember all sorts of odd stuff I have done and where I have been over the years.
One thing to note is that the world is very big, and the number of 'enemies' at personal level are few.
There is a saying something like 'strangers are friends you haven't met yet'.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 13:31

Red - finally we might find the links between toxic masculinity, Brexit and media manipulation all tied together. Told you Assange was in on it! I wonder if this is the push our Govt needs to finally deport him, seeing as Ecuador doesn't like him living in their embassy any more.

I am worried though that if it has taken this long to prosecute some in USA, and Trump doesn't seem to be going anywhere, we may be in for a long wait.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 13:32

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
^Lots of shrapnel around on the Irish border and what happens in a 'no deal'.

Brexiteers now reckon they've caught out Commission, exposed it as a "hoax" since Barnier says checks can be down without hard border.

What's going on? Thread after chats. /1

This all stems from a Barnier remark saying that EU will have "to find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border.”

Cue Nigel... /2

Nigel Farage @ ilovethefbi
The Telegraph’s @JamesCrisp6 highlights that the backstop has been a hoax from day one. A pity that Mrs May fell for it.

James Crisp @ Jamescrisp6
Finally and most crucially - if there is a way to avoid a hard border in Ireland in a no deal Brexit ... WHY DO WE NEED A BACKSTOP AT ALL?

Why not just do the no deal solution?

4/

I put this question to the European Commission's chief spokesman . Here is the exchange which ended with him telling me "to write what I like".

video

Peter Foster @ pmdfoster
Which, to cut a long story short, followed Irish outrage over previous Commission statements saying the a 'no deal' would bring back a hard border, both from Commission spox, but also Barnier himself.

This quote: /3

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
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Destiel · 25/01/2019 13:36

I currently have 54 loo rolls :)

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 25/01/2019 13:36

Joshua Green
‏*@JoshuaGreen*
The "high-ranking Trump official" Stone communicated with per Mueller indictment appears to be Steve Bannon (source: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/01/roger-stones-story-just-changed-russia-again/?utm_term=.be691c7e19e6 )

twitter.com/JoshuaGreen/status/1088769858249154560

prettybird · 25/01/2019 13:37

I suspect that the sterling rally and subsequent fall this morning was due to Hammond's interviews this morning: initially reassuring the market and then the market realising that essentially "Nothing's CHANGED" Hmm No Deal is still the default outcome Sad

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 13:38

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
But where lies the truth? Talk to UK side, talk to EU side, talk to NI biz....and they all know (as @simoncoveney conceded there will be a border.

Talk by @campaignforleo that UK must voluntarily implement backstop in 'no deal' is also a unicorn. /6

Tony Connelly @ tconnellyrte
Breaking: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says in a No Deal scenario the UK wd have to agree to full regulatory and customs alignment in NI if it were to honour its obligations to the GFA and the peace process.

Varadkar added that the UK might struggle to negotiate free trade agreements elsewhere if the Irish border question remained unresolved in a No Deal scenario.

Speaking in Davos the Taoiseach said: “The United Kingdom would have a responsibility to abide by WTO rules and both the UK and Ireland would have responsibilities to honour the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process.

“So I think we would end up in a situation where EU and Ireland and the UK would have to come together, and in order to honour our commitment to the people of Ireland that there be no hard border, we would have to agree on full alignment on customs and regulations,

”...so after a period of chaos we would perhaps end up where we are now, with a very similar deal.

“In a No Deal scenario Ireland will still be in the single market, and will still be part of all those trade deals which come with being part of Europe, the trade deal with Japan, the trade deal with Canada, the trade deal with Korea, the trade deal with Singapore.

“In a No Deal scenario, the UK won’t have any trade deals with anyone, and I think it will be very difficult for them to conclude any trade deals with the question of the Irish border unresolved. Given we have a solution on the table already, let’s ratify that.”

Pester Foster @pmdfoster
The reality of what @MichelBarnier is that the border inspection posts (BIPS) can be set back form the border a bit - but it's still the same requirement to defend EU single market, Brexiteers should not doubt that. /7

It is true that those checks could be 'de-dramatized' but let's not forget why @theresa_may demanded an 'all-UK' solution to avoid border in Irish sea, splitting the Union, angering the Scots etc. /8

Crashing out on ‘third country’ terms, brings down the legal guillotine.

Even the fact that we start from regulatory parity doesn’t mean, as one UK official puts it, “we still get treated like North Korea”. /9

To be fair to the EI govt, the British aren't being much more forthcoming in confronting reality of what 'no deal' means for border.... /10

Continues

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RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 13:43

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Understand the HMRC cancelled a meeting of its ‘Border Delivery Group’ in Northern Ireland last Friday (the clue is in the name) because it still doesn’t have cogent political advice from Cabinet about what would happen. /11

But the Commission first flying a kite - then backtracking with bizarre non-response to my colleague @JamesCrisp6 yesterday has muddied the waters now.

More and more ERG'ers will be convinced that if they hang tough the EU will fold and the border 'hoax' will be exposed. /12

Of course, the basic dilemma remains:

The backstop is there to prevent a return to a hard border.

If it causes a 'no deal', it will have been completely self-defeating. /13

That presumably is why we are seeing signs of pressure on the Irish.

Understand Merkel repeatedly asked Varadkar what he'd do in event of 'no deal' and he repeatedly declined to answer. /14

Does this mean the EU are prepared to 'throw Varadkar under the bus'?

I really don't think so. And certainly not if the UK government and parliament cannot demonstrate that an tweak to the Backstop secures a deal. /15

This is one obvious problem from May's massive defeat.

The EU might demand an act of statesmanship from @campaignforleo if it moved the ball over the line. (Just speculating) BUT not, as one EU dip says "just so May can lose a bit less badly". /16

We have seen flirtatious EU talk about willingness to entertain "alternative arrangements" - but of course, those arrangements still need to deliver on the basic commitment to no return to a hard border. (Which, lest we forget, the UK is jointly invested in) /17

The really crazy thing is that the Commission's botched gambit has reduced the likelihood of that happening and entrenched fallacies about the border on this side of the channel.

Well done everyone!

18/ENDS

Oh good stuff. No Deal just got more likely.

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lonelyplanetmum · 25/01/2019 13:46

I just had a random thought. The failure to resolve this mess and indeed the initial trigger is the internecine strife in the Tory party. They clearly can't resolve it themselves. In any other legal situation you would first of all try a trained commercial mediator to get an agreed position. This happened with the GFA didn't it. Well using a third party anyway.

Do you think this has been tried smuggling some top professional in by the back door?

wherearemychickens · 25/01/2019 13:47

Chris Grey has just published his latest blog, which I don't think has been posted yet? He's been persistently excellent in his analysis:

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-poisonous-politics-of-betrayal.html

wherearemychickens · 25/01/2019 13:48

Also, depressing.

PestymcPestFace · 25/01/2019 13:53

Civil list info
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_list#Elizabeth_II

The civil list was abolished in 2012 and replaced by the sovereign grant.

The Queen surrenders the revenue from The Crown Estate to the government which for 2016-17 was £328.8 million. The Sovereign Grant for 2018-19 is £82.2 million.

The Price of Wales and family live off Duchy money, some others get money out of the Queens allowance.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/sovereign-grant-act-2011-guidance/sovereign-grant-act-2011-guidance

TheElementsSong · 25/01/2019 13:56

Chris Grey on the money as always wherearemychickens and we've seen a lot of the betrayal/bullying/victimhood narrative here on MN - and it's a very dangerous state to be in.

BlueEyeshadow · 25/01/2019 13:57

It's easy to feel ignored on this thread - I posted a link this morning to a petition from the Good Law project but was maybe too cryptic about it, for example. I always remind myself that things aren't personal and that lots more people read and lurk than post. Anyway, Steve Bullock on Twitter:

"Sick of Brexit? Sick of lies, chaos, uncertainty, worry about jobs, prices, travel, the NHS, public services, rights, food & medicine supplies? Sick of others gambling with your life and future?

We’ve got years of this to come. We can just make it stop."

www.justmakeitstop.co.uk/ takes you to this:

"Two-and-a-half years since the start of Brexit, what’s the worst thing? It’s not that we’re at the end of it. It’s not that we’re at the beginning of the end of it. It’s not that we’re right in the middle of it. It’s that we’re not even at the end of the beginning of it.

What do we have to look forward to? A transitional period. Maybe an extension. Maybe a referendum. And then trade negotiations – with the EU. Then with everyone else. And it’s all we ever hear about on the news.

Whatever we voted for, we’re now just bored. There are so many bigger problems.
Can we not just make it stop? Cancel Brexit, like the Court of Justice said we could? Sign here to let your MP know you want it all just to go away.
Please add your postcode and we'll email them too."

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 13:58

Jonathan Martin @ jmartNYT
“Roger’s relationship with Trump has been so interconnected that it’s hard to define what’s Roger and what’s Donald,” Manafort said in the same film.
www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/25/roger-stone-last-dirty-trick-224217
Roger Stone’s Last Dirty Trick

BTW if you are interested in the Stone story have a read of @popbitch twitter today about the national enquirer.

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lonelyplanetmum · 25/01/2019 13:58

Thanks Blue. Thread is fast moving and posters' thoughts don't always follow the same direction.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 14:01

Ireland & the EU might have some time under WTO rules to sort this out after a No Deal Brexit,
because of the unique history & risk
AND - unlike for the UK - the EU will back up Ireland's statement that they are negotiating together.

(In the case of the Uk leaving without a deal, the EU would say they are NOT negotiating any longer and hence WTO exemptions for the UK along its land and sea borders too, probably don't apply)

There might be some temporary workarounds that the EU would risk for Ireland in the short term
and they can reasonably gamble that a desperate UK will be far more willing to sign the backstop & anything else AFTER No Deal,
with the UK economy & Sterling crashing and the UK in a much weaker position.

imo, The EU commision has been trying to get Varadkar & Coveney to face what might happen
(especially if the UK govt is in such disfunctional chaos after no Deal that noone can effectively make decisions that pass Parliament)

In that case, the RoI would have hard decisions:

They either organise border checks,
or they in effect do a partial Irexit, because mainland EU would have to check all Irish imports

The latter would be the Brexiters dream solution, but a much worse economic disaster for Ireland than Brexit, because Ireland does significantly more trade with the E27 than with the UK

However, imo Juncker was clumsy and should leave all discussions with Ireland to Barnier !

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 14:02

This happened with the GFA didn't it. Well using a third party anyway.

The EU and the US were seen as neutral third parties and took that role.

The problem being under the current political climate with Brexit and Trump in the mix, neither are viewed as neutral in the same way.

Which is a 'minor' difficulty to that strategy...

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BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 14:05

Jo Maugham QCC@JolyonMaugham*

Your Queen has had it up to here!
(link: http://JustMakeItStop.co.uk)

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 14:05

It's ironic and troubling that Farage pops up on the subject of the NI border the same day Stone is arrested. The intertwining going on starts to look v dangerous indeed.

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Lucygoeswalkies · 25/01/2019 14:07

PHPolly Don’t take it personally that you don’t always get a response. I hardly ever do - and I don’t expect it. These are indeed fast moving threads! There have been numerous occasions when I’ve wanted to post, if only to show sympathy and show moral support - but I spend most of my time playing catch up. I don’t have a huge amount to contribute (not having an in-depth knowledge of politics), so I mostly lurk because there is so much informative and eye-opening stuff on here.

1tisIeClerk I missed your post on speculating what people would do on March 30th. For my part I have a few options: knit (very soothing!), walk the dogs (got to do that anyway), rock sadly in a corner sobbing quietly...

However, I’m moving from very urban built-up (Medway towns) to edge of tiny market town in rural mid/west Wales in approximately 5 weeks time. There are sheep. Lots of sheep. If things go really tits up, I may just wander up into the hills and gaze at said sheep speculatively with possible designs on an early conversion to lunch Grin

.....sidles away to continue lurking...

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 14:11

Read in Hansard about the 2nd ref on devolution that Brexit Ultra IDS wanted !
"Is this what you said you wanted" 😂😂

Jo Maugham QC Retweeted Led By Donkeys@ByDonkeys
....

.In the debate on Scottish/Welsh devolution, Iain Duncan Smith tabled a Commons amendment pushing the option of… A SECOND REFERENDUM

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.
Moussemoose · 25/01/2019 14:13

@wherearemychickens brilliant quote from the Chris Grey blog:

Brexiters have proved to be unappeasable in their demands

No matter what happens they are victims.

Chris Grey - a lot more interesting than the last thing I read about him.

Thanks for posting.

BiglyBadgers · 25/01/2019 14:14

It's easy to feel ignored on this thread - I posted a link this morning to a petition from the Good Law project but was maybe too cryptic about it, for example

I saw that and took a look. The thing is if I posted to just say "thanks that was interesting" everytime someone posted something these threads would fill up even faster than they already do. I try to only post if I feel a desperate need or that I'm adding something to the conversation otherwise it's just a bit of a waste of space (and possibly I'm still a bit of a waste of space). I assume this is the case for most people on here. For example when I posted a question before and nobody answered I assume that it's because nobody had an answer and didn't see the point of posting 'I have no idea' rather than that they were deliberately ignoring me or being rude.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2019 14:16

Jo Maugham QC@JolyonMaugham

Two Councillors in Southwark seem to have had the whip withdrawn for voting for (on a sensible reading) Labour Party policy adopted at Conference.

Labour is eating itself. (I only wish it would eat faster).
.......
That'd be the same local Labour Party in Southwark that has in the past had (at least) two whips with a penchant for domestic violence, one appointed by serving Leader @peterjohn6
.......
Southwark Newss@Southwark*_News

Well-placed sources say both have indeed had the whip withdrawn, effectively kicking them out of the Labour group, although this is not believed to be on a permanent basis.

https://www.southwarknews.co.uk/news/labour-councillors-break-from-party-in-brexit-vote/