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Brexit

Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2019 21:24

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

OP posts:
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LouiseCollins28 · 25/01/2019 12:45

@lonelyplanetmum, thanks for the data. The UK is indeed rarely taken to court at the ECJ.

Of course, our domestic courts deal with vastly more cases than would ever be referred to the ECJ. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

The important bit, however, which you don't mention, is that in lots of areas of the law you refer to, the UK courts will be applying EU law, because it has become part of UK law.

The "influence" of the ECJ as the final arbiter of EU law, therefore extents vastly beyond the number of cases is decides for or against the UK government.

SocraticCat · 25/01/2019 12:52

lonely really interesting summary of the numbers there.

I particularly liked the phrase I was amazed at what I found - made me think of all those click bait adverts. You know the ones, '10 reasons to love the ECJ - youll be amazed at number 7' and 'stay-at-home mum discovers one simple trick to fix Brexit'...

(Also hanging around to find about the nuclear bunker....)

Hazardswans · 25/01/2019 12:57

I assume the bunker related illness was damp related? If LeClerc didn't leave the bunker much they'd be a lack of sunlight issues as well.. . Speculating.

MsLucyLastic · 25/01/2019 13:01

Hazard well in that case, can I definitely be in your bunker please? I am an ex mental health nurse so I can do first aid and also try to keep people sane?

Sadly, I have no other practical skills whatsoever. Apart from being a great shot.

lonelyplanetmum · 25/01/2019 13:01

No Louise that's incorrect.. it's not ' lots' of areas where the UK courts were applying EU law - it is in a small number of limited areas such as employment, consumer, environment, competition.

That's the point. It's not lots. We only delegated regulatory powers in the social etc spheres in the treaties as an adjunct to trade.You are wrong.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 13:04

Louise "In an important ruling in 1964, the Court said that the states had agreed to limit their sovereign rights in the areas covered by the treaty and could not adopt national laws that were incompatible with European law" - which begs the question which national laws do we want that would be incompatible with EU law? ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/does-eu-law-take-precedence-over-uk-law/

Hazardswans · 25/01/2019 13:07

lucy your welcome to my bunker - your mental health skills will be put to the test with me around!

Destiel · 25/01/2019 13:07

Can I be in the bunker too?
I'll bring cake!

wherearemychickens · 25/01/2019 13:10

I am also intrigued by the bunker comment! We did a trip through an old cold war bunker in Germany once. I would not have wanted to spend one night there, let alone a year.

PerverseConverse · 25/01/2019 13:10

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46998533

Fucking scary.

1tisILeClerc · 25/01/2019 13:10

Sadly I can't say much without 'outing' myself completely.
Nothing to do with 'military' though.

falcon5 · 25/01/2019 13:11

Just come in here to slightly laugh hysterically as I've just come off a conference call with one of the big consulting firms with some interesting guest speakers. Upshot: uncertainty is set to continue and volatility of political developments due to accelerate..... we are going to be going through a thread a day at this rate :)

PerverseConverse · 25/01/2019 13:11

Sorry it did t expand when I linked. The headline is: "Troops could return to Irish border, warns Varadkar"

MsLucyLastic · 25/01/2019 13:12

Thanks Hazard, I shall dispense medicinal wine to keep us all relaxed Grin

If Destiel brings cake, then so much the better!

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/01/2019 13:12

News distributors seem to be listening to Hammond basically saying 1 or 2 people say they may re-think red lines - they need a CONSENSUS with 27 nations! Brussels is not Davos!

PerverseConverse · 25/01/2019 13:13

@1tisILeClerc I hope it's a facility working on the cure for stupid. There's a fair few on the No Deal threads who would make perfect test subjects Grin

Hazardswans · 25/01/2019 13:16

Your a dark horse LeClerc okay we can't know the reason but can we know the illnesses?

dest yes to you and yes to cake!

falcon I'm glad I'm not the only one who resorts to hysterical laughter. But also what do you know?!!!

converse and shit....

MsLucyLastic · 25/01/2019 13:21

PerverseConverse troops on the border? That would reignite all the historical tensions and could result in civil war!

Given that the people of NI voted heavily to remain, and the polls show they would rather remain in the CU and avoid a hard border, just who do the DUP think they are to deny this? They are representing a minority, not the majority.

It is a disgrace that TM went crawling to the DUP (or the 17th century, as they are known in my house) to secure her position.

But it is an even bigger disgrace that the impact of that could result in civil war.

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 13:21

Thank you @MsLucyLastic . I hope your mum also puts aside a few things to cheer her up as well. Because non-stop beans are bit dull and farty GrinBlush.
Fulfilled all the haters fantasies today by buying Aldi spesh - organic Pinot Grigio 😂

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 13:23

Oooo@1tisILeClerc - also intrigued by the bunker ref.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2019 13:23

A quickie about Mueller

Today Roger Stone was arrested on seven counts of perjury and obstruction.

Why is this interesting?

Have a read of these:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/01/nigel-farage-is-person-of-interest-in-fbi-investigation-into-trump-and-russia

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/25/why-wont-nigel-farage-answer-my-brexit-questions

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/28/ted-malloch-wikileaks-information-trump-campaign-mueller-investigation

It's 'interesting'

What would I expect Farage to do if he was getting a little too close to Mueller?

Go on a media drive in the UK so that I could stir up feeling and get my fan club (and thus political pressure) warmed up to support me.

Just y'know saying.

OP posts:
MsLucyLastic · 25/01/2019 13:24

@Bellinisurge Grin There is also lots of loo roll. I can see a correlation there that I don't want to think about Grin

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 13:24

And ooooo Roger Stone. Actual cheery news. At least for a bit.

bellinisurge · 25/01/2019 13:26

@MsLucyLastic GrinGrin

mybrainhurtsalot · 25/01/2019 13:28

Lonelyplanetmum, your post from 12:19 is really interesting. Puts it all in perspective. I haven’t clicked through to the links yet.