Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

[RedToothBrush]

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

The "betrayal" narrative is essential for Brexit politicians, for their survival

Otherwise they'd have to admit they massively screwed up by not understanding how complex Brexit would be and how expensive for the country

The ref campaign promised 350 million for the NHS and all the bits we want from the EU without any of the bits we don't
They did NOT say ^that the govt would be making plans for emergency shipments of food and medicines,
that the economy is heading for a massive slump if we have No Deal^

So all they can do after creating a massive disaster - for profit and ideology - is to lie and put the blame elsewhere

Veteran Leaver R North has repeatedly called Brexiters like Lilley and JRM liars and said he has no fear of being sued, because he can prove they lie.

Seriously what is the point of these backstop removal amendments

Killing time with demands that are clearly never going to be met. Providing an excuse to say how awful and unreasonable the EU27 are maintaining the myth of the UK as victim.

If anything, her piece shows exactly how a No Deal Brexit is most likely to happen!

MissMalice desperation / running down the time / displacement activity

The alternatives to these amendments for Brexiters are either to drive full speed into disaster,
or admit they've made a horrific misjudgement about the Brexit terms the UK could obtain.

They won't ever admit the latter
It's just not a situation where "oops, sorry" would be adequate

Thank you @BiglyBadgers . I really appreciate it.

Long post warning -I have been doing some googling relating to last night's posts about the ECJ.

TM is the Queen of control.
I am the Queen of google.

Perspective and control

I lost track on the thread, in catching up I saw some posts yesterday about the evils of the ECJ.

This triggered the white rage in me. I get this each time TM talks about taking back control of our laws. She is not alone. Boris, Farage, vile fictional press have perpetuated this myth for years too. As a nation we have to stop these myths. Hyperbole like taking back control and “no deal is better than a bad deal” is dangerous and destructive.

Lets take the ECJ's 'control'. Brexiteers use this to justify the self-destruction we are embarking upon. It is false. Instead of working this morning, I did some research.

Both the EU and the ECJ have a very, very limited remit compared to our own. The areas which have been delegated by agreement by us, Germany, France etc are minor regulations which mostly relate to trade. The very limited spheres of influence are mainly environment, agriculture and employment with some other aspects like consumer or competition law. (Also, we agree with 95% of the regulations anyway!)

Using generic meaningless sentences like ‘taking back control from the ECJ’ must stop. Politicians know they are not saying the truth about this; many members of the public clearly don’t understand this.

To put things about the ECJ in perspective, today I spent an hour researching the balance between our courts & tribunal system and the ECJ. I was amazed at what I found. The below are stats from 2017 to 2018. If last years stats were not on line, I used annual figures from 2016 or earlier instead.

This is a broad summary of what our British judges have complete control over (in any one year). I have included Scotland and NI as we are looking at the courts’ control in the UK.

UK courts

Civil courts annual

• County
• First quarter 508,699
• Second quarter 565,233
• Third quarter 560,121
• Fourth quarter 414,129

High Court, Court of Appeal, Privy Council , Supreme Court annual 17,026

Tribunals and Appeals mostly employment, mental health, agriculture, consumer, environment, immigration, asylum, charity law, care law etc. 739,600
Family and public * 255,330
Scotland civil total 73,640
N.Ireland
County 24,624
High 14,208

Sub-total 3,172,610

The above covering civil matters administrative law, banking and finance, commercial law, constitutional law ,Construction law, Contract law ,Corporation law ,Some Employment law ,Energy and resources law ,Some Family law including marriage, divorce, adoption, finances,Film and entertainment law , Human rights law, human rights such as war crimes, crimes against humanity ,Insolvency litigation, banking and debt recovery issues ,Intellectual property law patents, trademarks and copyright for intellectual property ,International law
Law of succession, wills and estates, Law of torts , compensation for wrongful acts e.g. negligence, nuisance, defamation, trespass ,personal injury and medical negligence law, workplace health and safety ,Property law, Sports law and Taxation.(*Including including residence, forced marriage, domestic violence guardianship ,emergency protection, care, divorce, pension, property, maintenance, adoption, mental capacity, probate )

Criminal courts annual

Magistrates courts -296,800
Crown court -117,000 approx
Scotland 190,000
Northern Ireland 46,126

Subtotal 649,926

( Covering drug crimes, public nuisance , conspiracy traffic and driving offences, theft, misconduct in public office, perjury, abuse of authority, subpoena, jury notice, misappropriation of funds, Acceptance of a bribe, Dereliction of duty, perverting the course of justice, false imprisonment, fraud, murder, manslaughter, common assault, battery, robbery, rape, kidnapping / abduction, arson, burglary, trespass, forgery, certain libel, espionage
contempt of court escape from lawful custody, breach of prison, rescuing a prisoner in custody, riot, piracy
unlawful assembly, breach of the peace, public decency, running a disorderly house, housebreaking,
Theft, threats with intent to extort money or property, arson.)

TOTAL 3,822,536 UK cases controlled by UK courts every year

ECJ

In the 13 years 2003–2016 there were only 63 judgments handed down by the ECJ on UK infringements. This is 4.9 UK cases per year. Just under half 29 of those related to the environment.

The remit of the ECJ and the EU was always very limited to certain topic areas. The areas that crop up are mostly on the internal market, consumers rights, environment, transport customs /taxation, employment, energy and health and food safety. They are handful of cases and are normally a quirky little case that falls between the cracks.

So on average the ECJ had delegated agreed ‘control’ over the UK in 63 cases over a 13 year period. Compared to our own courts having control over 3,822,536 cases per year. That is 0.0000012 % of our cases. Why did the press bang on about the ECJ for years, and why do we not have a better perspective on this? It’s weird.

I doubt TM or her advisers read MN. But if you are lurking love- please, please, please stop banging on about control of our money (0.7% of GDP) and our laws. It isn’t true.

www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-justice/about/statistics#latest-statistics

www.morton-fraser.com/knowledge-hub/employment-tribunal-awards-statisticsawards-down-despite-surge-claims

www.supremecourt.uk/docs/annual-report-2017-18.pdf

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/news/latest/new-analysis-shows-uk-rarely-taken-european-court

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/IfG_Brexit_ECJ_v10FINAL%20web.pdf

curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/docs/application/pdf/2018-04/_ra_2017_en.pdf

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/163467/tribs-annual-tables-2011-12.xls.xls
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/643446/rcj-tables-2016.xlsx

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/695363/family-court-stats-oct-dec-2017.pdf

www.scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-source/aboutscs/reports-and-data/publications/scts-annual-report-accounts-2017-18---final.pdf?sfvrsn=2

Thank you also @PerverseConverse

Part of the reason MPs and business leaders have been so reluctant to speak out are the threats of violence and physical intimidation by pro-Brexit thugs.

Here's yet another report, another woman MP:

www.bbc.com/news/uk-46965780

Labour MP Melanie Onn revealed she had been threatened with being "gunned down"
The MP for Great Grimsby quoted the threatening email on Twitter, which was filled with swear words and called her a "traitor".

Having caught up with last night's and this morning's posts I think this thread is a bit of a victim of its own success. Some people seem to come to the thread under the impression that it is some kind of taxpayer funded public service and that regular posters have an obligation to reflect all sides of the debate and respond in certain ways rather than just a bunch of people giving their views and posting information they find interesting.

Thanks for doing the ECJ sums, lonely
Such a tiny tiny % of cases !

And @lonelyplanetmum - I often need that kind of info for my work, so thank you for giving me something to chew on.

@MSLucy I hear you. I live in a strong Remain area. However, there are still plenty of stubborn Leavers around here, and I have relatives and friends in many other places, both Leave and Remain. So I hear it from all sides. I just do not understand people who don't seem able to analyse and internalise readily available facts about circumstances that are accelerating daily now. I am very afraid for the future of my friends in the NE of England in particular. And for those I know in Ireland, the lack of regard for the GFA throughout this whole process has been dumbfounding.

Important HoC dates coming up

John Rentoull@JohnRentoul*

The 3 days of Brexit:

29 Jan – vote on Cooper amendment

5 Feb – Cooper bill into law in one day < IFF it passes !! >

26 Feb – law triggers request for A50 extension if deal not approved
Via @RobDotHutton

Thanks Red.

I'm really angry today about Hammond so comprehensively toeing May's line.

I thought for a long time that he was relatively sensible.

coward

You aren't being ignored polly

This thread is so fast paced it's hard to keep up.

I can assure you when I get time later I will be reading it all x

The posters on this thread like bcf red and many, many others have kept me sane over the past 18 months.

I value every contribution I see on here...if only the govt were watching it!!!

{People I would like to be in the bunker with if the no deal clusterfuck goes ahead.}
Having lived in a nuclear bunker for a year I can tell you it is shit unless you like wearing a fleece 24/7 and don't mind slightly odd illnesses.
The only good feeling is 'security' of metre thick blast proof walls.

@lonely all of this about the ECJ is absolutely correct. The Brexiteer propaganda concerning the ECJ's influence vs the reality of cases heard and decisions rendered is so deceptive and disproportionate.

That quick look at the ECJ just gives a general broad brush indication. It is really hard to unravel the UK stats as it is done by each type of court. However it is simply absurd to focus on a few quirky ECJ cases as being a big deal.

Why the press have fed that beast rather than reporting more of our own cases goodness only knows.

The bottom line is, are a few ECJ judgments worth dissing a lucrative trading relationship with 500 million consumers and 21 million small and medium-sized enterprises with a GDP of $18.8 trillion? Not to mention that Services are crucial to our economic activity.

Probably an EU FTA with NZ soon

Jean-Claude Juncker has just emerged from a meeting with New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern.
He says:
‘We should do everything possible to conclude an FTA in the course of this year.
I’m convinced given good spirit of our discussions today that this is possible.’

I feel the same re.hammond!

I miss woman11017 how she's ok

No idea re Rudd. Her majority is very slim.

All hail Queen Lonely of the Former 'Great' Britain.

BTW when are we changing the name to Mediocrity Britain and NI?

and lonely losing the 40 FTAs with 60-70 non-EU countries
and the 700-800 other trade / recognition arrangements
and the essential agencies like EURATOM, EASA, EMA (medicines) ...

@bellinisurge - I have read your prepper advice and have stocked us, as have other family that I have told. My mum.has switched from "no deal will never happen" to having an attic full of beans.

So thank you, it has really helped lurkers like me

@phpolly - I made my other post before I read the rest of the conversations re being ignored. Eek! Hope I haven't fanned the flames, anyone.

Re the leaver mentality.....I mostly agree with @DG. If people haven't the capability to understand the ramifications, then fair enough. But the most rabid "Brexiteers" seem to have forgotten to think. Except for people like JRM who know EXACTLY what they are doing, and whose desperation to both avoid the tax systems of the EU, and profit from disaster capitalism, makes him the evil embodiment of avarice. In a bad suit.

LeClerc I'm gonna need to know more....WHY WERE YOU LIVING IN A BUNKER? I'm not shouting I'm just loudly curious

@1tisILeClerc that begs the question of why you were in a nuclear bunker. And what strange illnesses. I am now intrigued.....

Does anyone else think that TM is possibly going to resign at the last minute in March, shortly after revoking? Or am I wishing for unicorns.