Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Yes, that actually sounds like a plan compared to this twaddle! Can't see Brexiteers going for it though as they are so keen for us all to suffer together to make England Great Again!

That question was great - all of the talk of violence is giving it momentum and allowing it to feel expected IMO. After we get shafted with No Deal (am resigned to it now) I think remainers should stage something non-violent. Ideas? Although we will be the only ones with food which might be slight and brief consolation.

Since London also voted Remain, perhaps there should be a customs barrier, perhaps razor wire all around the M25 with army patrols.

Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes

Source who backs plan:

“For too long parliamentarians have shouted from the peanut gallery about what they won’t support.
Now is the time for them to get on the stage and show what they would support.
If done properly this could help the PM go to Brussels in a stronger position”

< only makes sense if what they support involves dropping red lines, so the EU is prepared to negotiate >
......

Times Exc

Amber Rudd is warning No 10 that it could face dozens of ministerial resignations next week if Tory MPs are banned from voting for a plan that helps stop a no-deal Brexit

Rudd says there should be a free vote on the Cooper amendment

I don’t particularly want IndyRef2 as i think it will end in a shit show however much rather that than a shitshow of a brexit from a goverment Scotland didn’t vote for

@RedToothBrush I've just watched that too. They would neither confirm nor deny the claim though.

I'm just glad that the UK is waking up to the problems that brexit is causing already never mind the problems it will cause. Every day there's new issues discussed but TM blithely carries on with her agenda.

Someone in power needs to be the brave one to say: this isn't possible without massively damaging our country. Let's forget it.

Leclerc I was thinking of London becoming an independent City State

I hope it doesn’t just get voted through next week because she’s not got any alternative .

If there is No Deal, I'd expect several big JIT manufacturers to leave Britain within 0 to 4 years - those who won't be able to create a fully British supply chain in time

However, most would probably hold on right until Brexit actually happens - car manufacturers in particular have billions invested and they won't abandon that until they are 100% sure they have to

(and then some of those from participating countries can sue the govt under international treaties intended to protect investors from losses due to govt decisions)

Maybe some firms could hold out long enough to maximise use of their current investment -
i.e. stay until the next new models are due to be tooled (hence my 4 year limit) -

but others would just be accumulating losses, so might go quite quickly, if they decide a Fast Track rejoin won't happen or won't be sufficiently soon.

BCF Uranus is still a planet (DS is currently "doing space" though is too young for sniggering at Uranus. It's Pluto that's been down rated. Though we've gained an extra 3 dwarf planet since I last did geography

If we want to avoid No Deal, then the HoC needs to pretty quickly show it has a majority for an alternative

Otherwise, expect to see her reheated porridge WA being presented by May for every meal

Only 35 normal working Parliamentary days left
Only 66 calendar days

The HoC needs to get its socks on and pull them up !

NoCrying There was an MN thread a couple of years ago saying Uranus had been deplanetified
Have the astronomy bods changed their minds again, or was the MN hive mind wrong ... or was I dreaming < snores >

I don't want Indyref2 yet either - not until we are confident of getting 60%. Which is why I have to resist being gung ho about the clusterfuck being led by England Westminster, even though it will bring about that % sooner. I'd rather be patient and accept it will take longer, if it means less damage to the whole population throughout the British archipelago.

Interestingly, ds said to me, thinking I'd disagree, that there should be threshold for votes involving major constitutional change. I agreed and said it should be 60% (which is what ds was also going to suggest) - but that the threshold should be of those that bother to vote. Not, like in 1979, a % of the electoral roll. So even though the Scots voted for devolution back then, it failed the threshold test (as people who didn't want it were told that they just needed to stay home).

Ironically, back then, I wasn't allowed to vote even though I was on the register supposedly they factored in a number for those that were too young or who were deid but was ok with that as I'd have voted No, so effectively counted towards the No vote

Oh, how attitudes change

Rebel MPs Join Forces To Stop No-Deal Brexit And Take Control From May

Long overdue crossparty coordination to oppose No Deal

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/rebel-mps-brexit-join-forces-to-stop-no-deal-brexitukk_5c45fd5ce4b0bfa693c60ee9/?

Labour’s Yvette Cooper and Conservative Dominic Grieve had been planning separate amendments to give MPs greater power to bring about a Brexit plan B.

But following a meeting on Monday, three MPs said supporters of the two plans had agreed to come together and back a pincer movement to rule out no-deal and take control of the process.

The agreement to join forces by tabling amendments to May’s plan B, which will be voted on next Tuesday January 29,

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
NEW:
Sky News obtains Border Force contingency presentation slide assuming a No Deal Brexit fall in cross Channel freight traffic of 75% to 87% for next 3-6 months as a “reasonable worst case”

news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-trade-could-drop-by-87-govt-document-warns-11614002
Cross-Channel freight trade 'could drop by 87%' under 'no-deal' Brexit

Documents from the Border Force show freight trade may operate at as little as 13% of its current capacity for six months.

This is a reference to traffic from Dover-Calais and in the Channel Tunnel.

This occurs because of matters out of the control of the UK Government - the imposition of "third country" checks on UK trade by all EU countries and France in particular.

The document assumes: "The French will apply at least the legal minimum of third country customs controls on all goods and sanitay and phytosanitary (SPS) checks on specified food and agricultural products. This includes the imposition of 100% customs documents checks".

and

Even after an initial shock, Border Force assumes that a "new normal" for cross Channel freight will be 50-100% of current flows lasting "until significant changes are made to improve border arrangements such as automation".

oooooooo and we have a new Brexit acronym

The document acknowledges that a "significant proportion of traders will not be ready for D1ND (Day One No Deal)".

I'm losing the thread of the thread as it's moving too fast.

I did listen to TM is parliament earlier. One new thing she said that pissed me off ( as opposed to the repeated things that piss me off) was this.

She said that many people who voted in the ref hadn't voted before, disenchanted citizens, new voters who uniquely bothered to vote in the ref who don't vote in GEs. She was banging on about it being undemocratic to let them down.

Well, In the words of yellow jacket QT woman "I'm sorry..."
why should we prioritise people who don't bother to vote, don't normally take an interest in politics. They have let the country down all their adult lives by not taking an interest and never voting. So why when they choose to bother now do they suddenly become more important than everyone else.

It's like having an employee who is always late, ill, disinterested, sulky etc. If they make a rare appearance at a staff training session or away day, do their views suddenly carry more weight than the loyal ones who buy in for their whole working time?

It's party first again because May thinks those new voters may be new Tory voters. Except they won't because it was a one off.

pretty Talking of referendum thresholds:

I agree there should be a 60% threshold when it comes to referendums - gives a clear consensus rather than 52/48

But it doesn't stop the 15 million English remain voters (more than Scotland and NI) being removed from EU against their will.

But fuck it, who gives a shit about the English eh, they're just racist thickos who deserve a bloody nose.

I'm not sure why people think Scottish remain voters are more deserving of remaining in the EU Han English remain voters

red We've seen that 87% worst case figure from a few different media outlets now

it probably originated from the original assessment from the Dept of transport, which has now been circulated to all the other affected departments

So, all reports based on an estimate from Graylings dept ....
However, I've read other estimates of an 80-90% drop, so he probably hasn't tainted this.

I was thinking of London becoming an independent City State
I've been wanting this ever since the vote.

TheGirl As I posted, English Remainers would have full rights to move to the new UK countries - or the new London City state - all of which would Remain in the EU.

Much easier & closer than moving to the continent and they'll still be English-speaking.

iirc, the breakdown of votes showed England voted 58% Leave in the 2016 ref
Without London, that'll be 60-70% Leave
Let them do their own thing.

Blimey, I'm getting serious about my cunning plan.

Now I understand how May could get so obsessed attached to hers ! 😂
(and I still think mine is better ! )

I have had an answer from MNHQ as to why these threads do not show up in Active Conversations
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/site_stuff/a3484809-Active-Threads-What-is-the-real-criteria-as-it-is-NOT-activity?msgid=84309044#84309044
I believe the appropriate word is censorship

An ugly word, TiP, but I've long suspected that's the case

Sherlock Holmes "when you have removed all other explanations ..."