Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

I got an A for my Latin Higher - but as that was nearly 41 years ago, I've forgotten all most of it

Any violence - threatened or actual - will probably be due in a greater part to the same thugs that infiltrated football in the 70s and 80s.

There are some people who are just up for a scrap.

In a country, where you are (just ) still allowed to gather, protest, speak and hear, there is no need for violence, and I would hope the policing and judicial policies reflect that.

I would hope that any violent Brexiteers have at least one brain cell before they run amok. The paediatrician incident is a stark warning of what happens when the terminally thick get egged on

Ah , Horace.

As mentioned previously, I loved Juvenal - especially the one about the water clock which is so fresh it could still be written today.

I’m starting to lose track

Are we closer to an agreement after today?

Or still likely to be No Deal

Or not possible to say

@prettybird, well given that we are around 2 months from Brexit and IRA bomb attacks have already restarted over the weekend, the "what" is obvious, and so are the "who's." As for why they would feel the need to do this? Not a question I can answer really, without knowing what explanation if any has been given for Saturday's bomb.

How does the prime minister feel about being held hostage by the neo-fascist elements of her party and confidence partners.

I got an A for my Latin Higher - but as that was nearly 41 years ago, I've forgotten all most of it

Big ups for my Latin teachers (my first one was French, strangely enough ...) as they encouraged us to see Latin everywhere (which it is).

As a result I'm not terrified of any page of non-English text (after all, we call it the "Latin" alphabet ) ... I have French, Italian and Spanish in some degree, but can spot odd words and forms in German and Dutch which look familiar and seem to connect up. Certainly to the extent that it would be hard to prank me in the wild. I'd hope.

Anyway, we're dinosaurs. A couple of years ago, at a team-building event, I got chatting to a Tamil colleague who had just returned from taking his family to Paris for a week. I was mildly surprised and asked if he had learned French. He said no, and showed how he had gotten around the entire time using Google translate - he spoke in - it spoke out, or he pointed it at someone, and it translated to Tamil !!!

Using Google translate with your camera on signs and notices is a little too much like black magic ...

Remembering the "trouble" at the pro-Independence gathering in George following the result, the violence came from the Unionist thugs - the supposed winners.

And no, I'm not reassured that it's supposedly only the Irish situation that the army will need to guard against Even if that were the case which it is not , that is still an indictment of where the Brexit process has brought the UK

Are we closer to an agreement after today?

No.

HTH!

Caecilius always seemed to be in atrio as I recall. My abiding memory of O level Latin was of the teacher angrily trying to regain control of the class who were convulsed with laughter at discovering that the Latin for ‘old woman’ was ‘anus’.

Any violence - threatened or actual - will probably be due in a greater part to the same thugs that infiltrated football in the 70s and 80s.

Absoluetely. The same people.

Sadly.

Has everyone seen that Anna Soubry is doing a web chat tomorrow morning?

Yes thanks

And no gngngb

PCPlums that just made me chuckle

Easily amused and never bored me...

The same people.

Plus now adult sons.

A friend has just posted this on FB:

Friends in England who support a Peoples' Vote, I can only apologise that Theresa May is not going to allow one beasue she is afraid it will encourage Scotland to hold #Indyref2. So when we're sitting at our desks on the 30th March wondering "what the .... just happened" you'll know it was all Scotland's fault. Nothing to do with the Tories. So sorry, it's all our fault

{So the only concessions are to kept trading the same as we are now, during the WA and pay 36 billion for the privilege, we are so fortunate ,}
Well, about £19 Billion is the 'subs' that are due taking the UK to March. So it is things like Farage's pension, the various projects that are underway and so on.
The remainder would be to cover these costs up to 2020 or is it 2021.
Of course if the government gets it's finger out and manages to get all the necessary deals with the EU done 'early' then it might be nearer the £19 Billion.
The UK has already got through about £4 billion (?) making plans to leave, and it hasn't even got there yet.
The EU are just waiting for the UK to make it's mind up what the hell it wants to do.

Allie Renison @AllieRenison
Wellll... @GregHands is asking PM about merits of just carrying on w/things as they are under no-deal, continuing to make preferences for EU imports, breaching MFN rules, and dealing w/WTO challenge later. Says it "might provoke MFN challenges...which wdnt be heard for 18 months"

Translation: Given the failure of the WTO to appoint new judges to resolve trade disputes there is a backlog of issues, so we can just go full on rogue for 18months before they catch up with us...

...of course there might be an issue if other countries do the reverse to us in response to us going rogue.

But shhhhh don't let that spoil a cracking idea.

And of course football violence was intimately and inextricably linked to the National Front, and neo-nazi racist groups.

Plus ca change ?

Trying to catch up but note there's nothing new of any significance from TM

"Nothing's changed, nothing's changed !!!!!" - said in a whiny voice

{ nothing's changed !!!!!" - said in a whiny voice}
Miss hearing, is that 'wine o'clock you said?

Tobias Ellwood MP @Tobias_Ellwood 3 minutes ago
Cooked a banana cake yesterday. Told my son it will be ready in 20 mins - according to the cookbook.
It took 30.
It was a big decision - honouring the cookbook or take more time to get the right result.

Ooooooo touche.

I like that. There's a good slogan in there.

Even the MPs are baking to deal with the stress!