Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

mother she's trying to goad them with frustration so they snap tell her to fuck off and then she can blame the EU? Or...she's secretly applying for citizenship in Brussels and she's just pretending to negociate brexit?

She's twice refused to answer the question about accepting a CU if parliament voted for it.

No deal, here we come and it is going to all the fault of the EU.
NO NO NO
It is going to the fault of our ignorant parliament.

which effectively means she has answered that question, for the moment anyhow.

Learning Latin - at the local comp - is one of the bits of school that's found a lot of odd usage. If nothing else, forensic (from the Latin "forensis" meaning of the forum [court] ) dissection of the language and it's mechanisms and interactions leads to a whole new view on all other languages ... especially English.

As part of our Latin, we got to spend 3 days studying ancient Greek at a local 6th form (Lowlands in Harrow) culminating in performing an excerpt of "The Frogs" ... brickax, brickax

Not really doing much to dispel the liberal elite moniker, here

PestymcPestFace

No deal, here we come and it is going to all the fault of the EU.

Yes, I think no deal is being set up to be the fault of the big bad EU.

What's the Latin for nothing has changed?

Its a fairly obvious move to call on the armed services/security forces if there is a risk of unrest I'd have thought.

I may have got myth and reality mixed up (and who'd blame me) but I'm pretty certain that even Mrs. T. had a strong aversion to troops on the streets of the Mainland (NI could go hang, obviously).

I know she was pretty pissed off that the police could not deal with he Iranian embassy siege and insisted any similar incident in future was dealt with by the police. One of her big sticks to keep beating the Iron Curtain countries with was they were effectively military dictatorships as you could tell from soldiers on the streets.

Of course Tony Blair decided that posturing for his US chums was more important so we had tanks at Heathrow ... for what good it did (fuck all).

Maybe I am thick - but how will going to Brussels and talking about the backstop change anything?

It won't.

Thats the sum total of it.

@Motheroffourdragons what on earth do you expect her to say? the statement you (and TM) gave is true.

"Semper Eadem" = always the same

What's the Latin for nothing has changed?

Nihil cambi ... something (cheats) no, Nihil Mutata

But is that change towards, or change from

TM just bullying and frightening Parliament to accept her deal as the clock continues to tick. Her refusal to not take no deal off the table proves her tactics. Bored with it all.

So.....what?.... just tear up what has been agreed with the EU-27? Not likely at this stage I'd say.

Meanwhile, a brief peek behind the veil of whats really going on ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/01/21/google_50m_cnil_gdpr/

Google has been fined a mammoth €50m by the French data protection watchdog for GDPR violations in a victory for Max Schrems' privacy group NOYB.

The French agency, CNIL, ruled today that the search giant had offered users inadequate information, spreading it across multiple pages, and had failed to gain valid consent for ads personalisation.

(contd)

With 515 million people behind it, the EU is going to be very hard to browbeat over this. Google will squeal, as Microsoft squealed (if you remember the browser wars of the late 1990s, early noughties) but eventually buckled.

Bear in mind there are more GDPR violations headed down the track.

The UK tends to be insulated from such developments thanks to a mickey mouse data registrar. But it's not difficult to see how pissed off a lot of US companies must be that they might have to play by the rules - and even worse, rules they can't fix.

So Brexit as a lever to try and prise the EU apart - I believe it.

DG i feel we move in different circles. Wait...wait....is carpe diem Latin? If so you could say i know a phrase or two just the one of Latin

Big choc

It is unfair to say leavers would turn to violence:

My NE family as as hardcore Brexity as you could ever find:
rejecting any talk of problems with "Remoaners" etc

However, there is not the slightest chance they would turn violent
They are all respectable folk

I'm sure they are. I'm actually sure that most people are respectable folk. It doesn't stop me worrying about those that aren't.

To blithely say that "Its a fairly obvious move to call on the armed services/security forces if there is a risk of unrest" is an indictment of a Leaver's low expectation of the future we can expect in the event of Brexit

Why is there a risk of unrest?
Why is this risk being self-inflicted?
Who is the Government worried about?
What does the Government think that "they" might do?
Why would "they" feel the need to do that undefined thing that needs to be guarded against ?

carpe diem

"Seize the day" (it's where "carpal" as in carpal tunnel syndrome comes from)

Rarely a day goes by when I don't find myself using a touch of Latin.

But is that change towards, or change from

For Theresa May it makes no difference.

Rarely a day goes by when I don't find myself using a touch of Latin. Isn't it in your blood?

Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori

Is my favourite bit of latin. I consider its useage very adpt for Brexit...

...I loved that poem.

BigChocFrenzy So the only concessions are to kept trading the same as we are now, during the WA and pay 36 billion for the privilege, we are so fortunate ,