Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

That is good, Red. Apart from that use of the word 'cook' in relation to cake irrationally puts my teeth on edge. IT'S BAKE...

the Latin for ‘old woman’ was ‘anus’

Cat's bum mouth I suppose. Doesn't imply a lot of respect for eldery women in ancient Rome, does it?

As my username might suggest, my "Remain" is borne of a deep emotional attachment to the country my mother came from being in a transcendent union with the country my father comes from, and all the cultural and economic benefits that brings. I'll grant I'm not necessarily "the norm". But I also know there are a lot of people with similar - and more eloquently expressed - sentiments.

I take your very well expressed point. I suppose the reason I didn’t think of the emotional angle is because I myself don’t feel an emotional attachment to any one country. Born in France. French grandfather and Scottish grandmother on one side. On the other side, one half of that family emigrated from what was then Prussia. From the age of one until the age of five I lived in Turkey and then Greece. I’ve never felt that I ‘belonged’ in England, even though I’ve lived here for 52 years. On the flip side, I’ve never felt that I don’t belong in England. Oddly enough, I do have an emotional attachment to the county of Kent.

I guess, when I refer to pragmatism, I think of my reasons for voting to remain which were a) why vote against something which broadly works (even if it’s not perfect) and b) why vote for something which restricts FOM, because that works both ways and (in my view) is beneficial.

I was gutted when it became apparent that a small majority had voted to leave the EU. Gutted, and in a state of utter disbelief.

Doesn't imply a lot of respect for eldery women in ancient Rome, does it?

Er, I would be very careful around Livia ...

prettybird, don't worry, it's also the EU's fault and Labour's fault and Ireland's fault and the IRA's fault.

Thing is, I get incredibly proud and patriotic about the good bits of English and British history. Especially around Americans ....

I was just watching TM in parliament and it just drives me crazy.

Surely she must be able to understand that people have now got over two years of additional information and might have changed their mind due to it, it's not that difficult to get!

So is it undemocratic to re-elect a prime minister regularly? Should we elect them once and then not until they die since we can't change our mind?

When the Scottish MP pointed out that they had voted to stay in the EU and now should have a referendum about breaking from the UK (since uk won't be in EU) she just said that they already had had a vote. Yes, before the 2016 referendum so actually in 2014 a lot of people voted that way as they wanted to stay part of the EU (via being part of the UK).

Things change, why is it so freaking hard to understand!

Only about 70% of the population voted in 2016 so can she just shut up about the will of the people??

We should have known she would try and blame Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

TM blames everyone bar herself.
Next week her deal may well get through. I'm not betting it won't. The majority against it will drop as MPs courage deserts them. All TM has to do is keep presenting it and as she knows MPs don't have a lot of courage she win get it through. Tick tock, tick tock......

I really can't see anyone resigning because if they do she will definitely get it through. Its all a crock! But, its a big but, revoke has appeared. Just maybe TM will find courage. Better a bit of civil unrest than the country going down the toilet? Nah! Can't see that happening. Can't see anything happening apart from no deal/her deal.

Roland Smith @rolandmcs
Roland Smith Retweeted Allie Renison

How about starting "WTO rules" by breaking WTO rules and becoming a rogue state?

Genius. Bound to work.

(More proof that the Leave narrative has reached the end. Will it get over the line though?)

Red I am sure there's more to come. My leaver suggested "just giving northern Ireland back" would sort it out this morning

I like Latin, because although I learned it (briefly) literally half a century ago,
what I learned correctly is still correct now 🙂

That's different to quite a bit of the science learned then
e.g. Uranus was a planet

I didn't think we could lose a ruddy planet,
until this hopeless shower of a govt came in - they could lose a country, so maybe a planet too, if they were ever left in charge while everyone else was at the pub.

and it was pronounced with great joy in every possible lesson
"It's your anus, Miss !" 😂😂 (girls grammar, young ladies as we were called)

Now the miserable sods have taken away that joy from generations of kids

DGR

"As mentioned previously, I loved Juvenal "

Quidquid agunt homini and all that. Wonderfully cynical writer. Even better, when I did his Satires for A level, there were certain parts we weren't allowed to read (they were edited out of the text book) because it was thought they were too salacious for our precious teenage sensibilities.

So of course we all trooped off to the library to read the uncensored version . Same with Ovid's Ars Amatoria. This was after the Lady Chatterley's Lover trial, so I would have thought that horse had long since bolted.

Just been watching the House of Commons live and TM looks very pissed of doesn't she? She didn't have an answer fir anyone's questions except "I am working/try to..."

What have you been doing for the past 36 months woman??

Mrsr8 May needs to do a prevent course. She could learn a lot about the rise of the far right and their influence on our youth.

Peter Kyle had my fave question and I am appalled that he got such a slap down for it.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-under-attack-for-suggesting-riots-will-erupt-if-second-brexit-referendum-goes-ahead_uk_5c45fa1ce4b0bfa693c60aa6?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics

This whole avoiding reality thing is not good for the country.

Metella was quite often in triclinium, iirc.

Anyway, I've had a shite day. Time to catch up on all the life-affirming joys of Brexit, I suppose.

lonely That would be rather complicated to do - it would actually solve the Brexit problem ....
but start a whole new one !

My alternative suggestion:

(well at least I've thought more deeply than May seems to have)

"Independence for England !" 😏

England leaves the UK and Brexits
(possibly Wales too, if they are still keen)

The other countries stay in the UK, which Revokes

We have a CTRA (Common Travel & Residence Area) in the Former UK
So the English Remainers can move any time to a neighbouring English-speaking EU member

{Uranus was a planet}
But does it self identify as a planet?
In the grand scheme of things, the exceedingly short lived 'meat engines' on a tiny blue rock calling the 'wrong' thing is immaterial to it.
The dinosaurs lived for for longer that humans have and they were presumably happy enough.

Except more people in England voted remain than in Scotland or N Ireland so solves nothing...

{So of course we all trooped off to the library to read the uncensored version}
The teachers had to find some way of making you learn it.

North West Tonight have just reported that they have heard that Jaguar Land Rover in Halewood would close completely if there was No Deal.

Thegirl if you mean my cunning plan 😏
Well, I can be as stubborn as May about my plan

It solves Scotland and NI being forced to Brexit when they voted Remain
It stops England's glorious Brexit being hindered by the Ni backstop

and the CTRA lets English Remainers move to the other countries, which will gain population and become more powerful

I should EMail it to May for her Plan B !

@PestyMcPestface, Peter Kyle is our MP and he been very clear about his views on Brexit and has frequently voted in defiance of the party whip. We are very lucky to have him.