Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

I wonder though, does her mental health need looking into? Her actions are becoming more & more erratic and unhinged.

Talk of renegotiating the GFA is a disgrace, trying to bully Ireland into submission, have we just gone back 30 odd years?

I literally despair, I've never in all my life felt that so utterly horrified at the behaviour of our government.

But I just don't see a way out, May seems immovable, JC seems immovable, we need somebody else to take control, but who? And how?

We really are fucked here.

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/a-non-starter-varadkar-and-coveney-reject-backstop-treaty-plan-1.3764268
A ‘non-starter’: Varadkar and Coveney reject backstop treaty plan
Bilateral treaty envisaged both governments bypassing EU for deal on invisible border

“It is not something we would entertain,” said the spokesperson. “It would not work, as so many of the issues pertaining to Ireland are related to EU law, and are negotiated and agreed through the European Union. Ireland is much stronger negotiating through the EU task force.”

From earlier today. Yet the Telegraph is STILL reporting the story...

...it tells you everything you need to know about the story tbh.

All the discussions about Brexit being like a cult when actually being Tory is the cult.

To my mind (others might disagree), ROI has been very diplomatic about all this shit. I do realise that they have ultimate EU backing, but the border and the GFA are very important to ROI also.

GFA has the backing of EU. And don't forget it was NOT an EU agreement, it was an International Agreement, one that has left NI with peace for a long long time now.

The car bomb in L/Derry might be a signal, it might not be, who knows? But any tinkering with GFA could in theory re awaken mad things. Who wants that?

Her actions are becoming more & more erratic and unhinged.

In fairness thats just the smell of desparation as she knows that there is no where to go from here, but over the cliff or split the Tories.

I blame the moon, it is very bright tonight.
And
I predict it will show its wrath by turning to blood soon.

You're probably right @RedToothBrush, you usually are!

Westminster elections need PR immediately!

OK I know I am dreaming. But hopeful it might happen sometime soon.

Who cares if Farage or whomever get a seat, it is what people vote for.

So therefore it will never happen either. FPTP is not representative at all. IMV.

I think there is a good chance that some people didn't read the question. I don't think you can conclude that a quarter of people think no deal = remain.

So what's scarier? 26% of people think 'no deal' means remaining in the EU? Or 26% of people can't read a question correctly and then vote accordingly?
If the latter is true it surely renders all elections of any kind completely suspect.

The responses on twitter to the mere idea of rewritting the GFA range from WTF to swear words mostly. Strangely enough this is the telegraph's european editor on the subject:

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Amending the Good Friday Agreement will never fix backstop issue - my latest on ⁦*@Theresa*_may⁩ Plan B.

Why won’t it fly? 1/

Well, for starters you need Agreement of all NI parties, UK and IE govts to amend Good Friday Agreement All-party talks anyone, after the trust deficit that’s grown up since Brexit? Seriously? /2

Then we’re expecting the EU to allow Irish and U.K. govts to bilateralise the border (an EU external border) where EU has trade competence? Seriously? Legally and politically imbecilic. /3

There was a car bomb in Londonderry last night, in case they missed that in No10. The GFA is corroding as NI politics polarises. #brexit is an accelerant to that trend. /4

EU source describe the plan to me as “insane” - the politest word they could come up with. If you were cynical, you’d say she can’t be serious. She’s just playing to the base. Playing for time. No one should be cheered by this nonense. /ENDS

The EU won't grant an extension if the UK govt just wants more time to ask for the same cake, or crazy new GFA cake

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/europe/britain-is-operating-as-if-a-brexit-delay-is-there-for-the-taking-its-not/2019/01/19/83da06a2-1b2a-11e9-b8e6-567190c2fd08story.html??_

An effective Leader will look after the good of the people, not the party.

Not happening yet though.

Just had a slightly batty thought before driftingoff - you dont think sheis truing to goad IRA into another attack? Either take attentionnoffbher and another group to blame, or to allow for an extension from EU? It would be one of the few good excuses...

You know the politics is beyond fucked when you wouldn't be surprised if the PM is courting terrorism.

Just when you thought things couldn't get any more batshit... amend the GFA...really?

I predict it will show its wrath by turning to blood soon

I predict around 2.30am - 7.48am tomorrow the Gods will show their anger, with it peaking around 5.15am.

Its a sign.

Lets face it, it makes more sense than most stuff these days

We'll start the week with
only 67 days until Brexit

the HoC has only 36 normal working days until Brexit

Tick tock, No Deal is coming up fast

You know the politics is beyond fucked when you wouldn't be surprised if the PM is courting terrorism.

Quite honestly she's been up to that for 2 years. And other leavers have been at it far longer.

The irresponsibility of politicians that has been on display for the last few years is incredible.

Peter Geoghegan @PeterKGeoghegan
Given that Telegraph story about May (Gove surely?) wanting to rewrite Good Friday Agreement my column today about how British government has completely misunderstand Ireland, and its own greatest success in Ireland - the GFA

Ah yes. That Mr Gove.

Lets not forget his history with that.

Goodnight all. Here's hoping for sanity and progress in the morning.

How does she keep finding new depths to sink to?

Every time you think she’d be forced to back down she somehow holds her ground. Worried that she might actually believe that if she holds her ground the EU will blink at the last minute.

Is this a really clumsy way of killing some more time or is it the first salvo in ultimately killing off the GFA?? It’s not a big jump from needs to be amended to not fit for purpose.

"It's always darkest before the dawn" or whatever the saying is, is another hopefully apt one.

Really must try to sleep now.