Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

there rufus thanks...i wasnt sure if i was doing the right thing. We've been friends for 15 plus years, very different people and im used to shaking off what she comes out with but it reached a point of nah. DP always pushes me to go out, see friends and have a break from him. But everytime i saw her I came home feeling like I wanted to cry! And it took me days to bounce back mood wise after listening to her.

No. 10 spokesman was denying their plan was a bilateral Irish deal, which sounds like they have thought better of demanding to renegotiate the GFA

Anyway, Ireland won't agree and the EU will support them totally on this.
Even if the UK requests an extension, it won't be granted if the UK plan is to demand GFA renegotiation

So, if Plan B is to bugger the GFA, we'll crash out with No Deal Brexit on 29 March
and we'd deserve it for electing such arrogant fools to govern us.

{We stay in the EU 26%

I think there is a good chance that some people didn't read the question. I don't think you can conclude that a quarter of people think no deal = remain.}
Sadly I feel we can, especially if you look at what other Brexit related questions are being asked.

I remember the first time I heard ‘no deal for leaving the EU’ I also assumed it meant we’d have to stay. Because we couldn’t agree how to leave, you see.

That was obviously right back at the start of all of this but I can see how that mistake could be made.

Ok so that's not quite as batshit as it sounded at first.

Plan B is a new international agreement - like at PS to the GFA? An Agreement on a new joint Anglo-Irish commitment that there will be no return to a hard border in Ireland and no infrastructure on that border in any eventuality.

But

1. Ireland won't agree will they?

1. Even if they did, Why should the EU trust that this would be honoured.

I think there is a good chance that some people didn't read the question. I don't think you can conclude that a quarter of people think no deal = remain.

That's what the poll says, it's not about my conclusion. As for reading the question wrong, maybe a few did, but 26% is a lot. It's scary that after over two years of this a this is happening.

Meanwhile....
UK car firms prepping and moving Type Approval to the continent
Stocking up on components too, but that's expensive and impractical except as a stopgap measure

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/20/carmakers-ramp-up-preparations-for-a-no-deal-brexit

Mike Hawes, the chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the British industry body, said a no-deal Brexit was “not an option for the UK car industry”.

He said: “It would cause immediate and irreversible damage to our sector, putting business and thousands of jobs at risk.
A no-deal scenario could result in severe disruption at the borders and, with over 1,100 trucks crossing into the UK every day, such delays would render just-in-time manufacturing impossible, stopping production.

Stockpiling is not a viable alternative, given the scale and complexity of the products and thus the space needed.

1. Ireland won't agree will they?

I don’t think they can agree. It’s not just Ireland’s border. It will be an external EU border.

2. Even if they did, Why should the EU trust that this would be honoured.

Well exactly.

I suspect YouGov's pool of people they question is far more informed than the average bod
So we can get misled by not realising that many people don't even understand the basic terms, let alone the technical side of brexit

The example given on QT this week about going to a car dealer and walking away saying “no deal” if you don’t like the price makes me think people don’t really understand what no deal means.

The issue of people thinking no deal means remain has been raised on these threads before this poll as well.

And the amount of people who think no deal won’t affect them further confirms my fears.

SURPRISE!!!! May blames Corbyn for cross party talks failing

I'm not sure why this is even being debated:

Ireland won't agree to renegotiating the GFA - which would take 10 years anyway, even if possible and we don't have 10 weeks.

The EU won't let any single member negotiate about the legal external boundary of the entire EU bloc

Maybe the stupidest Brexiteer fantasy yet
May should be ashamed of herself, touting such dangerous delusions, but she never has shame.

I wonder do these people this that no deal = we're not doing it i.e. leaving. That's pretty scary if they put the words 'no deal' as an option on any second referendum paper.

Oh my gosh, Red, I honestly can’t believe that. Who could ever have predicted that would happen?? I’m stunned!!!

Why is the telegraph a whole day behind everyone else.

Ireland and the EU have both today said its a non starter.

It is once again the UK desperately trying to turn Brexit into bilateral negotiations,
dealing with a single country instead of the EU as a bloc

However, that is precisely why the EU is an economic superpower: it acts as a regional bloc.

It is clear that Westminster has no idea how to deal with Ireland except by bullying it into surrender
and since the EU won't allow that, the UK is totally adrift

DH's response to me telling him that May was planning to rewrite the GFA:

"What the fuck is she thinking?, the absoluete tool!"

red Brexiteers don't listen to what the EU says
Brexit is an internal debate only, no furrin views allowed

I work with many very nice and not at all stupid people who literally will not read the words in front of them. A typical conversation:
No, that’s not correct. What does the question say?

No, look at the question - read it to me

No, that’s not what it says. Read each word, in order

No, read every word. I’ll point with the pencil

Now, what’s the answer?

So what do you learn from that?

Good, well done!

That she has even considered it is easier to rewrite the GFA than persuade the rebels to behave or the DUP to support her is astounding.

Has she lost the plot so badly, that a little trip to the priory is order?

RE GFA, All I can say now is that this is the UK bullying Ireland again and they think they can get away with it. Honestly what are they smoking?

Last chance Saloon maybe. It will not wash anywhere so forget it. No point trying to analyse it either. Arrogance and hubris knows no bounds.

I am sick of this now. As are many others too I reckon. But what can we do now?

DH's response to me telling him that May was planning to rewrite the GFA:

Loud prolonged laughter, followed by query about diabetic crisis.

The GFA is not simply a bilateral agreement between the UK and Ireland.

For starters, from wikipedia
The agreement was made between the British and Irish governments and eight political parties or groupings from Northern Ireland: the Ulster Unionist Party, the Social Democratic and Labour Party, Sinn Féin, the Alliance Party, the Progressive Unionist Party, the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition, the Ulster Democratic Party and Labour.

LOOK. No DUP...

They don't get to walk in and decide what everyone else should do. Yet this is clearly an attempt to do exactly that.

Surely talk of TM amending the GFA unjust to make her look in some way credible by the tory papers? "Oh yes, that highly complicated agreement those pesky remainers keep talking about? Well, she COULD just 're write it you see, yes in a matter of days!". I'm going to go for an announcement of a GE as my final guess before turning in. One can only hope we get some kind of say.

It’s genuinely embarrassing. We only have the GFA because we invaded Ireland. They’ll be offer NI back to Ireland next. Awful. Just awful.