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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

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Ta1kinPeace · 19/01/2019 23:02

the ROI land Bridge is a whole nother issue
boy oh boy will that be a mess

Quietrebel · 19/01/2019 23:03

Scary news about NI. It's a pretty clear message. Don't fuck with the GFA.

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 23:03

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
💣 EXC: Dominic Grieve's bombshell new amendment to prevent a no-deal Brexit by letting a MINORITY of 300 MPs control Commons business and introduce legislation to extend Article 50

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/secret-plan-by-rebel-mps-to-stop-a-no-deal-brexit?__twitter_impression=true

There's A Secret Plan By Rebel MPs To Stop A No-Deal Brexit
Exclusive: Details of a new amendment to prevent the UK from crashing out of the EU have been obtained by BuzzFeed News

More on the Grieve stuff

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RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 23:04

Cabinet plotters support 2nd ref

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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nicoala1 · 19/01/2019 23:04

What does it matter if it is Con or Lab anymore now really? They both want to Brexit AFAIS. So it is sounding like the voters have no real choice anymore.

But anyway.

What is Plan B for Tuesday?

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 23:07

Fox talks about a gap between MPs and voters and a political tsunami...

... Why Is that again?

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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BishBoshBashBop · 19/01/2019 23:07

Bercow has a massive majority

Technically no he doesn't. Other parties don't stand against the sitting speaker in a GE so it will always look that way.

I suspect he's personally popular?

No not really.

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 23:09

www.itv.com/news/2019-01-19/theresa-may-to-brief-cabinet-on-cross-party-brexit-talks/

More on Liam and May's attempts at cross party talks.

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SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 23:10

Technically no he doesn't. Other parties don't stand against the sitting speaker in a GE so it will always look that way.

Ah, ok, didn't know that.

nicoala1 · 19/01/2019 23:11

Clock is ticking, tick tock.

Maybe for once UK might realise that they are never going to to able to bully anyone ever again.

OK I must be dreaming.

Icantreachthepretzels · 19/01/2019 23:14

Thanks for the info Bigchoc - I think parachuting a newbie into a seat of a big name - whilst the big name also stood independently - would split the vote. Maybe even accidentally - people just used to voting for Ken Clarke may automatically tick the box next to his name.

Apparently Andrea Jenkyns is not popular in her constituency

Morley had no business voting tory - they can reap what they sow the sodders.

My mum is busy trolling Andrea Jenkyns. The door to Jenkyns constituency office is glass all the way down and has a letter box right at the bottom (soon to be illegal!). Every Saturday my mum slides a 'we demand a people's vote' flyer onto her doormat so it will be the first thing she sees when she arrives there.
Last week Andrea Jenkyns was actually in the office whilst my mum was posting it - so would have seen it within minutes. My mum ran away chortling, very pleased with herself.

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 23:15

Isn't there a tradition of the party of the Speaker alternating? Trying to think of a Labour MP with a booming voice.

BishBoshBashBop · 19/01/2019 23:17

SwedishEdith It was quite a bone of contention in the last GE with many in the consituency feeling disenfranchised as they had no choice.

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 23:17

Oh, I love your mum pretzels. Grin And to think Morley had Ed Balls.

BishBoshBashBop · 19/01/2019 23:19

Isn't there a tradition of the party of the Speaker alternating? Trying to think of a Labour MP with a booming voice.

Not really. They technically become an independant when they become speaker and have no vote.

GD12 · 19/01/2019 23:20

Rumours Labour are going to whip AGAINST the Grieve amendment. Well what a surprise, eh? You'd almost think Corbyn wants a hard Brexit!

twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1086747976251424769?s=19

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 23:21

The RoI ever since the ref launched an extensive diplomatic campaign to secure support from the other E27
Their message has even reached the EU public and built great sympathy there

e.g. yesterday at work, a German and an Indian colleague asked me how what on earth the UK govt was doing re Brexit
and their next comment was about ireland, how an innocent country would be hurt through no fault of its own
That message has certainly got through to them - they were very supportive of Ireland

So, views in Germany among those I meet are that Ireland must be supported and if need be helped after Brexit

No 10 should stop fantasising about bullying Ireland out of the backstop
and instead start making decisions among the available options

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 23:24

Ministers agree to consider Lib Dem plans for new referendum

but how seriously

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/ministers-second-brexit-referendum-lib-dems

Vince Cable says move follows cross-party talks on Brexit deadlock options

Quietrebel · 19/01/2019 23:29

They would need Labour for any significant cross party initiative.

I have no words to describe how pissed off I'd be with Corbyn if he opposes the Grieve amendment. Will Labour MPs stand up to the Dear Leader?

SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 23:33

I do wonder if MPs like Jenkyns are swayed by their cheerleading Twitter feeds into thinking their stance is popular, whilst forgetting that a large amount of supportive pro batshit brexit tweets will be coming from people with no ability to vote for them.

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PootlesBobbleHat · 19/01/2019 23:34

I'm dreading the kind of news and comment we'll get tomorrow in the light of the car bomb. I'm already imagining the jingoistic bullshittery, talk of not being bullied, and some sort of post-colonial nonsense about 'Ireland'.

I feel so sick of all this. Brexit has already torn the UK apart. The damage is done and the genie is never going back in the bottle.

Who the hell signed us up for wartime planning, food and medicine shortages, economic suicide and an end to the gfa? Why are people still defending this shite?

I just want an end to it all. People will find, with considerable shock, that instead of it 'not working' and 'how much worse can it get?' that in fact, we had it good and we screwed it up.

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 23:37

Trying to find out and saw this on wiki

"Most Conservatives felt strongly that the recent alternation between the main parties ought to be maintained and a Conservative Speaker chosen (post Betty Boothroyd)" They're going to regret that. Grin.

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 23:49

Bercow wants to stay though.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 23:50

The streets will be on fire this summer.

The party is over.

Anarchy in the UK.

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