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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

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RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 22:38

Read this.

Binary treaty with Ireland to solve the backstop issue (let me translate - it's technically speaking moving towards renegotiating the GFA. Then we have events in NI tonight... )

LOTS in this.

Civil servants dragged into this mess and condemned for helping Grieve.

May having no where to go and talk of the government collasping or being asked to go early.

Big stuff.

Explosive stuff.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 22:40

Small nazi protest in Leeds. Wore yellow vests so as not to get run over.

Counter protest was probably much the same size.

Eventually clashes will happen.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
Westminstenders: Stalemate
BestIsWest · 19/01/2019 22:41

Breaking out the Gin stockpile

PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 22:43

I've always said Brexit requires GFA to be rewritten. Can't see the DUP or anyone else being happy.
Ireland is not a fecking English colony.

nicoala1 · 19/01/2019 22:45

It was bound to come to this. Down to the wire and now people really realise what might happen in 60 days or whatever.

So each side is panicking.

There is no leadership or opposition. It is just a disaster now. Poor old Britain. It will be forever polarised and will become a Disunited Kingdom before too long too. And unfortunately their dithering has not helped them with other countries who might be inclined to do a Trade Deal either. Maybe EU excepted. IMO.

Apileofballyhoo · 19/01/2019 22:46

How could a bilateral agreement possibly work?

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 22:47

Leeds has always had problems of that nature. It's previously been linked to the football club. There's also been riots in the Asian parts of town due to issues to do with race. There's an unhealthy tension. I lived there for a number of years and it doesn't surprise me in the slightest to hear that.

Sigh.

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BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 22:47

Just a reminder of how far she has sunk:

Matthew Fraser@frasermatthew

The Times front page two years ago today.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
Apileofballyhoo · 19/01/2019 22:47

Or 'rewriting the GFA'?

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 22:48

Anyone still claim we'll crush them
or just that we'll survive somehow with turnips

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 22:48

Can Ireland do a bilateral treaty of the nature being suggested whilst an EU member is another question...

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BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 22:51

Ireland has not the slightest wish to renegotiate the GFA

  • at least not in the direction the UK wants

and the EU will not allow the UK to bully Ireland

This is why the UK govt is so stumped:
bullying Ireland is how it has dealt with the country the last 800 years

PerverseConverse · 19/01/2019 22:51

Turnips?

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 22:51

Basically it's Rees-Mogg going 'I can stop the ERG collasping the government if you do what I say' by the sound of it.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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PootlesBobbleHat · 19/01/2019 22:52

Londonderry- not good. It's been a long time since I watched news like that. Not what we want a return to. Perhaps someone wanted to remind us why the GFA should not be brushed under the carpet.

But, hold the front page, I'm reassured by a Belieaver that we need to leave the EU now because it's financially tanking and they only want us for our money. But we cant talk about it now, or discuss facts about it, we have to Brexit then watch while at some unspecified point in the future the EU goes bust.

Funny how whenever I question facts they're not the kind of facts that can be discussed.

Of course if we leave, it destabilises Europe like Putin (may have) wanted, there will be financial repercussions for Europe (and we know preparations are costing our neighbours dearly already), they can say, told you so.

We meanwhile will be striding the globe, one foot on the USA, one foot on China, presumably striking deals dynamically, in a thrusting manner, with our economy booming. Yup.

nicoala1 · 19/01/2019 22:53

I do not recall a car bomb anywhere in NI since GFA.

Sinister message. The arsenal of weapons and potential mayhem must still be around somewhere despite the GFA. Just waiting for the opportunity to kick back (on both sides).

But hopefully I am reading far too much into this. But I don't like it much either.

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 22:54

Harry Cole @mrharrycole
🔥 Strong steer tonight that Labour are preparing to whip against the grieve/cooper/letwin “constitutional arson”. Source: “we could be in government within months as a minority, is this really the time to rip up the rule book?” More in MoS...

This is Corbyn trying to see off a cross party move.

Why would that be?

It's not because of fear of constitutional issues...

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BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 22:55

No 10 keeps leaking INVENTED stories that somehow the backstop can be negotiated away
that ireland will be pressured by Germany
that the UK will renegotiate the GFA ...

NOT going to happen

Legally, Ireland could if it wishes Confused - which it doesn't - renegotiate the GFA bilaterally with the UK
BUT
it can NOT negotiate any trade deal, or indeed any trade conditions, non-tariff barriers etc

Trade negotiations are legally an exclusive competency of the EU

PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 22:55

Has anyone told Ireland yet?
Lots of unhelpful shit stirring

Westminstenders: Stalemate
Ta1kinPeace · 19/01/2019 22:57

GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT
I posted after my trip to Ireland in November
about how utterly unique I found that international boundary
do not underestimate how raw things are there
I was shocked
really shocked - as was DH whose family left the border area during the famine

as a news hound I was always "aware" of it
and I remember the bombs and the friends who escaped them
but the rawness is something else

as a pseudo English person
you were not there
has to apply

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 22:58

The UK govt only pays attention to bombs in the City of London
because that risks its golden goose going elsewhere

Anywhere else, the plebs can bleed, but the govt doesn't give a fuck

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2019 22:58

In the regular 'is Gavin Williamson bonkers or just being stitched up to look bonkers?' corner, we have this offering.

I do wish the willy waving between Williamson, 'The Saj' and whoever else is coming up with this crap would stop.

It's fucking embarrassing.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
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nicoala1 · 19/01/2019 23:00

ROI have been preparing for this for a long time. As others have said, they are diplomatic, and will be supported by EU.

Merkel is just another head of State, she is not a member of the EU negotiation committee, although I am not silly enough to dismiss her influence either. But it doesn't matter really, Barnier is the boss. And afais he has been very patient up to now.

The UK unfortunately has let themselves and their constituents down big time. Their hubris has led them to this pass.

But diplomacy works sometimes, so let see what happens.

SwedishEdith · 19/01/2019 23:01

BBC News Press Team
@BBCNewsPR

We've reviewed what was said re polling on @bbcquestiontime. A YouGov poll published on the day of the programme suggested a lead for the Conservatives. Diane Abbott was also right that some other polls suggested Labour either as ahead or tied, & we should have made that clear.

After her positive reviews on her first programme, I sincerely hope (but know there's fat chance) that Fiona Bruce apologises at the start of QT next week.

Quietrebel · 19/01/2019 23:02

This is Corbyn trying to see off a cross party move.

I have no patience left for the man.