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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
52
WonderWoman2019 · 17/01/2019 20:57

Thanks RTB Wine

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 20:58

Thank you RTB, normal hue has been restored!

Ta1kinPeace · 17/01/2019 20:58

Place marking before I escape to Death in Paradise for an hour ;-)

QueenieIsLost · 17/01/2019 20:59

Plaice mat king

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 20:59

.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 21:01
Gin
phpolly · 17/01/2019 21:01

.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 21:02

Does anyone have a link to the previous thread as it’s fallen off my I’m on and is not appearing on my Brexit forum?

QueenieIsLost · 17/01/2019 21:02

Is there a time limit by which the U.K. has to say YES to the Eu in the WA?

MissMalice · 17/01/2019 21:03

Thanks for the thread and summary, Red Flowers

ClashCityRocker · 17/01/2019 21:04

Placemat King.

Surely all these conversations should have happened two years ago? Wtf have they been doing?

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 17/01/2019 21:04

Thanks for the thread red

I totally forgot about Death in Paradise ta1kin Dh hates it so I’ll have to find another time to catch up.

I’m rewatching old episodes of Luther with Dh, it’s even scarier than Brexit - which is saying something

DangermousesSidekick · 17/01/2019 21:07

PMK.

The Grieve amendment is still in play isn't it? So May has to come up with an alternative tomorrow?

DangermousesSidekick · 17/01/2019 21:08

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3481054-Westministenders-May-dug-a-deep-stinky-hole-and-UK-politics-has-tumbled-in?pg=39
Previous thread link for Tatiana. Seems to have moved venues.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 21:08

Just reading about Trump and Pelosi ... eerie parallels ?

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 21:09

Thanks, red 💐

Yes, we have had this disagreement with a few other Westministenders on several threads now,
but it's my understanding too, that May actually has to agree to any alternative option to No Deal

iirc, Grieve admitted this, re one of his amendments last year

The belief that the HoC can legally force, e.g. a revoke, seems based on an apparent admission by the UK govt in the ECJ revocation case.
tbh, the govt has been so unreliable when it comes to legal matters, I wouldn't rely on that admission being actually correct.

I know Jo Maugham has claimed this, but imo if he really believed it, he'd be shouting it every day
and other legal bods would be agreeing with him.
So far, this hasn't happened

Crown Privilege is v powerful in the UK constitution and I suspect Revoke, even Extend, on such controversial, easily disputed grounds, could tear the country apart and set it on fire.
ERG MPs would be pouring petrol on the fire
Very worrying if we are ever reduced to that

and RNorth is correct wrt Extend that the govt could easily use back channels to say they really don't want this and would not cooperate, "so please veto this, some kind E27 friend."

QueenMabby · 17/01/2019 21:09

Place marking (although to be fair I just keep this thread open on my phone and refresh as I go!).
I’m generally at a loss over all this. I just want to go into the HoC and shout, “right. No screen time til all this is sorted.” Works for 12 year olds and so it seems I’d be pitching at the right level...

lonelyplanetmum · 17/01/2019 21:11

Cat King or Catkins or something.

Although I'm not sure I wish to accelerate Spring this year.

Thank you Red.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 21:13

I know Jo Maugham has claimed this, but imo if he really believed it, he'd be shouting it every day

?? He gave a briefing on it at the HoP on the 11th.

PatPhoenix · 17/01/2019 21:17

Very confused. Thanks Red.

I used to think Mays tactical work running it all down to the wire was quite clever. No more.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 21:17

I’m sorry I just can’t take Richard North as any kind of legal authority just because you can’t find lawyers who disagree with him on google.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 21:18

Thanks v much dangermouse!

borntobequiet · 17/01/2019 21:19

Catkins to you too lonely!
Sooner or later both main parties will look at the polls and realise that May and Corbyn together are the obstruction to any common sense solution. What will they do?

Charly22 · 17/01/2019 21:19

*Charly 💐
So many reports from E27 expats about British inlaws being oblivious or uncaring about the possible human consequences within their own family confused

it does make me wonder whether such people lack knowledge / assume a deal will be made / lack empathy in general / dislike the particular E27 citizens their family members have married or partnered*

I am guessing/hoping they think it won’t affect me as much since I have a British passport BigChocFrenzy.

I just wish they’d be a bit more concerned about how Brexit is going to affect Scotland and a possible second Independence Referendum. Particularly as most of them voted against an independent Scotland last time round. Confused

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 21:20

OMG