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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 20:23

Sorry PerverseConverse if it's any comfort i need to lose quite a bit and I'm hoping I'm wrong. My experiences have been with short term food poverty though, think a week or two rather than months. So I suppose our weight loss will.depend on the incompetence of Grayling and Fox. In which case, thinking about it, we should be superslim by the end of the year. Happy days.

SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 20:24

If anyone would call an election at the worst time possible, expecting it to resolve her problems, it would be May.

PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 20:25

Think this is still relevant.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 20:29

Poverty is associated with obesity in women
(but not in men)

(Maybe more than men ?) women psychologically gain comfort in sugary food and heavily processed mass produced crap without nutrients is cheaper than nourishing food

Women are socialised to care for the family first, themselves last.
Protein tends to be more expensive than carbs or fat
and if in short supply, it tends to be given more to the man

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 20:36

Elenade I'm not worried about Bercow for his own sake, but for ours.

If he is deselected and there is a GE before Brexit, then he would no longer be Speaker

  • very doubtful if a seat with mostly Tory voters would choose him over an official Tory candidate
Indeed such a contest might split the vote and give the seat to Labour / LDems

if he is no longer Speaker, then the chances of the HoC taking back power from May and preventing No Deal are much lower,
because he has gone to the furthest limits to give power to the MPs

Even after a No Deal Brexit, we need him as Speaker, because the govt will have activated Emergency Powers under the Civil Contingency Act
and we will desperately need MPs to have as much power as possible to hold the govt to account for their use of Emergency powers.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 20:37

Even before Brexit, reserve troops will be called up in early Feb, so possibly the govt could call Emergency Power early

I would be seriously worried if May dissolves Parliament for an early GE shortly after, or just before, invoking Emergency powers^

btw, MPs and the Speaker can do v little if Parliament is not in session and the govt is not consulting with them.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 20:39

@red Thoughts on Emergency Powers while Parliament is dissolved ?

Maybe I worry too much, but I don't trust the govt even when they are supposedly being scrutinised by Parliament,
let alone when there is no Parliament

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 20:41

Thanks bigchoc that's interesting. Also different from the ukip perspective that Ive experienced although i assume the social chapter would have motivated them further.

Ukip, from my perspective, were purely motivated by the feelz even in the early 90 s.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 20:42

before or after Brexit ...
Someone dictatorial & stubborn, remotely giving orders to reserve - not regularly trained - troops in an untested new command structure,
as civil disorder is breaking out

Think Bloody Sunday in the NE
Think Bloody Sunday II in NI !

UnnecessaryFennel · 19/01/2019 20:42

A little light-ish relief

It made me laugh. But then, I have Had Wine.

PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 20:45

A seizure of power?

SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 20:45

My friend pointed out that when you are poor you're more likely to treat yourself using food. If you've had a bad week and you've got some money you might cheer yourself up by going shopping or to the cinema but if you haven't, well you can buy a large bar of value chocolate for 30-40p.

Do we think May is hoping certain MPs will be deselected or lose their seats? I think she would quite like to lose Grieve and Soubry. Didn't Ken Clarke say he wouldn't fight another election?

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 20:48

I think standing back and looking at what is going on, or at least looking for a real motive is necessary. We are looking at the close details but apart from a relative few making a shitload of money what purpose is there in taking the UK close to the point of civil war? What can anyone do with a country that is divided roughly equally in half?
Is it a plot to threaten the EU, on the lines of whoever is masterminding this can 'destroy' the UK so the EU will be next' type threat?

PerverseConverse · 19/01/2019 20:51

Relationship with food are very complex. I had an eating disorder for about 20 years so my mind automatically runs its hands with glee at the producer of me eating less. I'm a normal weight but at the high end of my heathy range so would be happier if a stone lighter. However, I have 3 children age 11,10 and 4 and it's and it's snacks that I expect will go out of the window as I'll have to focus on meals. We are veggie so my stash contains pasta, chopped tomatoes, lentils, rice, frozen veg. Our meals will be healthy but due to lack l of snacks I should lose weight. Any snacks I do buy will be for the children. No man in the house. Since new year I've stopped snacking and stopped eating after dinner. I've reduced portion sizes for me too and am fuller on less. I struggled to finish my crumble and custard tonight and only had half the portion of spaghetti I would normally have.

I crave pizza and jam doughnuts around period time. Cravings for doughnuts are a good barometer of when I will start my period GrinI'm hoping pizza supplies will be safe. Homemade or shop bought.

My mum is a meat and fish lover and is worried about prices. She's a traditional tastes kind of person but grew up during rationing so maybe she'll cope fine.

Worrying times.

I wonder if the number of take aways will decrease as owners return to their "home" countries in order to escape the hostility, rising rents, staff also returning home. Restaurants too. Our towns and cities will be poorer all round. It's bad enough now with empty shops/premises.

I wonder too if part of that will be that those originally from outside the eu will by association feel less welcome and also leave. If xenophobia increases even more amidst this mess.

1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 20:51

{A man shot dead in Warrenpoint, County Down, on Friday night was the gunmen's intended target, police have said. }
Also from the BBC from a bit earlier today.

Mrsr8 · 19/01/2019 20:53

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DGRossetti · 19/01/2019 20:54

.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
PerverseConverse · 19/01/2019 20:58

Please god don't let it all kick off in NI again. My brothers (British Forces) were there in the 80/90s. The anxiety was horrendous and I can't imagine what it must have been like to be living there in those times.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 19/01/2019 21:02

1tisI - I think it is a few stirring thepot...Putin has a vested interest and links to Farage and Assange. Farage had nothing even remotely negative on his wiki page at the time of the referendum which I found telling. Then you have facebook who know realise they can control/have leverage in politics and any election. Neoliberal businessmen and conglomorates who didn't like the way EU was going with workers rights and environmental issues. Nb apologies for my typos, new phone and I am shite at checking before I post in a rush!

LonelyandTiredandLow · 19/01/2019 21:10

Personally feel we as a country were a perfect storm with austerity dividing us and making the weakest people turn to far right/extremist views. Add to that how many are on FB, how we annoyed Russia over Crimea (although we didn't get hands dirty) and about their money laundering in London property. I think the Russian bots using the situation are sending a clear message to May about keeping their money where it is.

nicoala1 · 19/01/2019 21:12

We need Barbara (was that her name?) from Bristol to have a total hissy fit if there is ANOTHER election.

I doubt it. I think A50 will be revoked. Easier all round, even with the eventual fallout.

I think we have to think it out again!

SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 21:18

Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
·
53m
UK, Opinium poll:

European Union membership referendum

Cancellation of Brexit: 20%
Go ahead with Brexit on the current timelines even if it means leaving with no deal: 40%
Delay Brexit: 20%

Fieldwork: 16-18 January 2019
Sample Size: 2,006

SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 21:20

Europe Elects
Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
·
57m
UK, Opinium poll:

European Union membership referendum

Scenario: Leave with May Deal vs. Remain

Remain: 56%
Leave: 44%

Fieldwork: 16-18 January 2019
Sample Size: 2,006

SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 21:20

Europe Elects
Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
·
52m
UK, Number Cruncher poll:

CON-ECR: 41% (+3)
LAB-S&D: 39% (-1)
LDEM-ALDE: 8%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3% (-1)
Greens-G/EFA: 2%
PC-G/EFA: 1%

+/- vs. 9-13 Aug. '18

Field work: 10/01/19 – 17/01/19
Sample size: 1,030