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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 21:21

There was some constitutional law person on R4 with Evan Davies as I was driving home tonight(5ish?).

He seemed to think HoC act could order May (in that he didn't countenance she'd refuse - which, given the fact I think we're pretty much seeing a coup, is an assumption rather than a given).

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 21:22

That was actually PMK but my phone autocorrected to OMG. It reads my mind Confused

Charly22 · 17/01/2019 21:23

bellinisurge Grin

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 21:31

The HoC can only force May to do something if they are given the opportunity to get something legally binding in law.

Thus they would have to get an amendment through the house and have a majority.

But they can only amend Brexit legislation, and Leadsom has killed the opportunity to do that by killing all Brexit legislation debates until 29th.

Even then government can stitch up amendments by changing the nature of the motion. We've seen the government do this once before.

Even now, if there was to be an amendment put through the house saying revoke many MPs would be wary of doing so because of how and why they triggered A50. And cos things are so finely balanced every vote is needed to get that majority. At this stage I don't think there is a majority to revoke (there will be come late march and if no deal is looking like the only alternative)

At this point May could be legally bound to do something. But it'll be at the eleventh hour and May will most likely be up to her own tricks. Being able to corner May will be exceptionally difficult if not impossible. Bercow still has limits to how much he can intervene too. There is a political cost to him every time he does.

Honestly I think it will come down to who is best with Erskine May and who can hold their nerve longer.

Think this is crazy and stressful? Wait til March.

OP posts:
Sostenueto · 17/01/2019 21:42

Thanks red though I haven't got halfway through last thread its so fast! Flowers

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 21:43

Yes, Red

It's disgraceful really.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 21:45

{and RNorth is correct wrt Extend that the govt could easily use back channels to say they really don't want this and would not cooperate, "so please veto this, some kind E27 friend."}
In a 'how about Gibraltar' sort of way?

I realise it is a bit bizarre and please don't be offended but the appearance of posters Charly and Lola struck me earlier on.
OK time to move on!

There is a Guardian opinion column about the UK needing to leave to 'reset' minds. Not quite the same tack that I have waffled about previously though.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 21:46

The govt would have to slip up in their management of HoC business, to let themselves be legally bound

  • always possible, but not something I'd rely on

Leadsome has considerable low cunning to compensate for being a twit
and the ERG would be thumbing Erskine May (sounds disgusting when one visualises JRM !) for weeks looking for delays & dodges to help her.

Even if the HoC gets sufficient of its collective arse into gear, I expect it wouldn't be before mid-March
and that May could prevaricate and avoid actual action for 2 weeks,
even going sick etc

Charly22 · 17/01/2019 21:46

But they can only amend Brexit legislation, and Leadsom has killed the opportunity to do that by killing all Brexit legislation debates until 29th.

Apologies if this is a stupid question, but how can they unilaterally decide this?

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 21:47

I don’t think the house is ready for Revoke yet, first they will try to extend.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 21:49

With lack of sleep and incredible stress could Mrs may have a breakdown and what would that do to the constitution and proceedings?
I am obviously not wishing her ill as a person.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 21:51

May has the nuclear option of calling a GE 25 working days before 1 April,
if she sees an amendment coming up that would genuinely bind her.

Maybe I'm paranoid, but that's what I mean by her having to want to take an HoC option

From her pov, polls suggest a GE would likely give her the majority she was seeking in 2017
and finally let her put the phone down on Arlene's harangues

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 21:54

That kind of GE decision could really firm up her vote and bring in Labour Brexiters:
"Don't let them steal the Brexit you voted"

Charly22 · 17/01/2019 21:55

*{and RNorth is correct wrt Extend that the govt could easily use back channels to say they really don't want this and would not cooperate, "so please veto this, some kind E27 friend."}
In a 'how about Gibraltar' sort of way?

I realise it is a bit bizarre and please don't be offended but the appearance of posters Charly and Lola struck me earlier on.
OK time to move on!*

Sorry, what do you mean by that 1TisILeClerc?

Sostenueto · 17/01/2019 21:56
Hazardswan · 17/01/2019 21:56

PMK

Ta red

SingaSong12 · 17/01/2019 21:57

PMK - I hate this. As an ardent remainer has almost got me to the point of saying hard brexit because the rules are taken out of government hands. Except of course that’s rubbish.
Sad

MangoSplit · 17/01/2019 22:00

Place marking

Sostenueto · 17/01/2019 22:01

mrs8 a query please. Would food banks take donations of hygiene products especially for ladies as well as food? There is a lot of sanitary poverty in our area and donations in schools are welcome. Wondered if only food took at food banks. I go to Morrison's who ships donations straight to 2 local food banks, one in village and one in main town so I just buy and put in the special containers for the food banks.

Violetparis · 17/01/2019 22:02

The Guardian is reporting that there are many Labour MPs against a PV and they would break the whip if there was a vote on it. Both main parties are so split I can't see how this mess can be resolved.

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 22:02

IThis is what a modern coup looks like.

It's very quiet.

It should be headlines.

We should be outraged.

Loletta · 17/01/2019 22:04

@1tisILeClerc
I realise it is a bit bizarre and please don't be offended but the appearance of posters Charly and Lola struck me earlier on.
OK time to move on!
I think Lola would be me? I'd like to know what you mean too please.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 17/01/2019 22:06

So does May have to renegotiate a new deal with the EU in order to have something that's actually different? And hasn't that been declared a no go?

I can't believe we have to go though this again.

Sostenueto · 17/01/2019 22:07

So I don't go into the food banks personally to ask. ( please attach to my last post as it posted before I finished)

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 22:10

Oh, he probably just means that it's cute you have the names of a popular children's series.

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