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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stalemate

958 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 20:54

After May's Meaningless Vote defeat and Corbyns Pointless Vote for Your Own Party defeat we are well and truly at Stalemate.

May has invited other parties to come and talk to her to find a compromise. Except she has so many red lines all she is asking is for everyone else to compromise whilst she gets exactly what she wants.

Corbyn made a tactical error in not initially speaking to May, so now she gets to say that its Labour who are being difficult and not wanting to work together in the national interest.

Corbyn has in addition put down the red line of saying he won't talk to May until she agrees to drop no deal. Except since no deal is the default until an alternative solution is agreed! Corbyn is expecting May to say that she would revoke if there was no alternative agreed, whilst is isn't really reasonable from a compromise point of view.

They are as bad as each other. Both too stubborn for the country to move forward. Its long been said that they were alike in this respect, but having it put to the test about which is more stubborn has the potential to destory the country in the process.

In addition to this, Leadsom has removed all other Brexit related HoC business from the schedule until after the 29th January. This is a blantant attempt to try and stop backbenchers having the opportunity to table pesky amendments which the government don't like.

The 29th January is due to be the Meaningless Vote II. Given that May has made it clear that in her head 'compromise' means 'do exactly what I want and capitulate' it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement will be represented to parliament to vote on with little change. Perhaps with a few amendments there designed to attract support, though it remains to be seen where this support will come from given the spectulator level of the rejection the HoC gave it. May's Plan is literally to run the clock down and hold a gun of no deal to the head of remain leaning MPs or to scare Brexiteers by suggesting that she might revoke or there might be an extension.

Its beyond farce.

Of course the role of the Speaker becomes paramount.

Technically speaking no bill can be presented to the HoC twice in the same parliament. Its against the rules. So how is May going to get around this, and will the Speaker indeed allow it?

The Speaker may also try and help backbenchers out by allowing amendments and motions to be tabled outside the normal rules. Normally the government alone control the majority of parliamentary time, with the opposition parties being given so many debates depending on whether they are the official opposition and then according to their size. Backbenchers don't tend to get much parliamentary time. However the Speaker's actions last week showed he was willing to be creative and bend the rules to allow backbenchers more influence and power than under normal circumstances because of the way that the Executive was trying to frustrate the house. So not timetabling any further Brexit Business between now and the 29th January seems a sure fire way to have the Government straight on course for another run in with Bercow.

So what next:

Do not forget that whatever happens May has to agree to it, or we go to no deal. Whether that be a 2nd Ref, Revoking, Staying in the Customs Union, Norway + or Any Other Alternative May has to agree to it on some level.

Backbenchers can table amendments all day long to 'guide' or put pressure on May but they may not be able stop her ultimately. Boles, Grieve, Benn and Cooper seem to be the ones to watch.

So May's stubborness is the biggest barrier and issue there is to preventing No Deal.

Corbyn, whilst he might well be very right to avoid getting sucked into May's trap, isn't helping matters with his own stubborness. His priority is party politics and stopping the Labour Party from splitting. Not solving Brexit.

There is not a shread of pragmatism nor thought for the national interest between them. Party before Country.

So we are to go through all of the last week, possibly with another vote of no confidence thrown in for good measure in another 12 days.

Won't that be fun?

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 19:22

I expect it is all about "innocent until proven guilty", which to be fair, Labour have always trumpeted.

However, imo, a party should have positive vetting for all their candidates for public office
i.e. the burden of proof should be "suitable beyond reasonable doubt"
So, I am also indignant that he was not replaced.

BUT
totally different situation to excusing someone after conviction
i.e. after proved guilty beyond all reasonable doubt

I'd be staggered if Labour - or the Tory party to be fair - tolerated any official afterwards minimising criminal DV behaviour, let alone excusing a brutal murder

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 19:23

That's in reply to pesty and the Labour candidate accused of DV, but not afaik yet tried

PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 19:26

There is comPelling evidence that he did not win at the last election.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 19:27

John Bercow could be thrown out of Parliament as his local Tory association is now looking to replace him

We keep forgetting that he is officially a Tory MP
That's at the next GE - so another reason May might go for a GE !
That could make a big difference after a February GE

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8223552/john-bercow-out-of-parliament-tories-replace-him/amp/?

The Sun can reveal the chairman of the association will meet the party’s national head of candidate selection to find a suitable figure to fight the seat

LonelyandTiredandLow · 19/01/2019 19:27

BigChoc - that sounds about right. One caller was positive the EU needsbus more than we need them. THAT is the tupenof comment I think journalists and presenters should challenge every time. IMO it's plain lazy not to given their professions.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 19/01/2019 19:29

Welling Farage thinks the EU will not crumble and he can stay MEP that interesting...Grin thought the European Project, as they like to call it, was all going to poof up in smoke the second we left?

Mrsr8 · 19/01/2019 19:32

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 19:38

Hazard There have been a number of groups pushing for a referendum.

They have been doing canvassing and events, social media and press releases for a good king time.

They are under an umbrella body but have different focuses (eg a Conservative group, a Labour group, etc).

Part of what they do is lobby MPs.

Did Owen Smith stand on a platform of a PV? I can't remember.

Anyway, the push for a PV hasn't come from nowhere but it has really built up as it has become clear there is a complete impasse at the moment.

SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 19:40

If Bercow stood as an independent and won could he just carry on as speaker or would they have to vote him in again? The Tories really don't like anyone who challenges them do they? Bunch of snowflakes.

The lexiteer on my Facebook has posted a lot of anti EU stuff in the past twenty four hours. Something's coming, election or referendum and they know it.

thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 19:40

Another Conservative government and no John Bercow, actually, any government and no John Berco, would be a bit grim.

PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 19:41

www.ft.com/content/3eb997ca-14c9-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

I presume this is referring to Mars bars.

Westminstenders: Stalemate
thecatfromjapan · 19/01/2019 19:41

Agree with you there, ^Mrs8.

PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 19:43

That's a shame about Brecow.
However, surely us mere mortals can nominate him a peerage.
He could also stand as an independent Grin

Apileofballyhoo · 19/01/2019 19:45

Thanks for the links re UKIP failing to condemn murder. Cunts is too good a word, Mrsr8.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 19/01/2019 19:46

Well this UKIP news is somewhat unexpected but quite horrifying. News in the not current sense obviously.

Hazardswans · 19/01/2019 19:50

cat thank you. It just seems relevant to understand the motives of those who have pushed for a referendum for years to help understand how we ended up in this brexit mess.

PerverseConverse · 19/01/2019 19:52

The UKIP news is horrendous but fails to surprise me which is very damning of today's society. Angers and repulses me, but doesn't surprise me.

I had to laugh at the helping the obesity crisis point. I'm a remainer as you know, but I'd commented to my mum that I'd be slimmer in the event of food shortages. That was the only, very very small (minuscule) positive I could think of in all this

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 19/01/2019 19:53
Grin
Westminstenders: Stalemate
1tisILeClerc · 19/01/2019 19:56

Apileofballyhoo
I was shocked by Mrsr8's comment the other day.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/01/2019 20:02

hazard If you mean who pushed for the 2016 referendum:

the Tory hard right has been pushing for that ever since the early 1990s social chapter - workers rights, environmental rules etc - came in.
That pressure has increased as they see their chance to roll back the state to before the 1944 welfare reforms which set up the NHS and the modern welfare state
They want tax cuts for the wealthy and the freedom for busineeses to treat workers as they wish, without constraints

The old hard left always saw the EU as a capitalist club, blocking their glorious Marxist revolution of mass nationalisation, state ownership etc
Some Lexiters also want the chaos of No Deal as their chance to come to power and carry out policies that they would never be allowed in normal times

Plus those zillionaire hedge-funders etc - as I have posted - who stand to make hundreds of millions each out of betting Sterling and British businesses will do BADLY after brexit

and vulture capitalists who want to buy up cheap the NHS, british businesses, houses of bankrupt ordinary people etc

SusanWalker · 19/01/2019 20:07

I could lose a lot of weight but past experiences of being broke and without food makes me think it's unlikely. When you are not eating enough you crave more fatty and sugary foods than you normally would. You become obsessed about food and limited money means buying filling things which are stodgier and fattier.

Losing weight by eating a healthy diet with fresh veg and nice protein is easier as you feel satisfied having eaten.something nice.

When you are eating savers white bread, value beans and tinned peaches you are filling up on sugary stodge and craving more because it's so unsatisfying. And although you might be losing some weight you won't be healthy.

Any weight loss will be reversed and then some as soon as trade deals are set up and food starts getting through.

ElenadeClermont · 19/01/2019 20:15

I would not worry about Bercow getting deselected. He seems to have accepted that he burnt all his bridges.

PerverseConverse · 19/01/2019 20:17

Thank you @SusanWalker. You've extinguished my tiny sliver of hope in all this.

kalidasa · 19/01/2019 20:18

Lots of rumours today about an election on 28th Feb. What do you think?

PestymcPestFace · 19/01/2019 20:23

28th feb is bonkers. If she goes for no deal, there is legislation to be sorted.

Plan B is probably, say yes to my deal or election. Terrifying to have yet more uncertainty.