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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

OP posts:
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MissMalice · 16/01/2019 19:21

I’m appalled that such a major decision can be pushed through with a referendum that was so narrowly won, with a minority government, with a WA that’s been so hugely defeated and now this narrowly won VNC. Regular decisions, everyday business, sure, but something as huge as Brexit. Something has gone horribly wrong.

DangermousesSidekick · 16/01/2019 19:22

She had a majority of 13. Just 13, including the disgusting DUP deal.

I agree, MissMalice.

BiglyBadgers · 16/01/2019 19:22

May couldn't even work with her own Brexit ministers who complained she made decisions without talking to them. She had an election without consulting her own cabinet! The idea that she is suddenly going to start working with the opposition parties in any constructive way is laughable. I would be very, very cautious if I was an opposition leader right now and insist that any meeting and all discussion was made public before I would agree to talks.

Sostenueto · 16/01/2019 19:23
DarlingNikita · 16/01/2019 19:24

MissMalice, I couldn't agree more. It's not quite tinpot dictator territory, but fucking hell it doesn't feel like far off.

Sostenueto · 16/01/2019 19:25

Agree bigly

Sostenueto · 16/01/2019 19:26

Agree something really wrong missmalice. The system must be f***!

BiglyBadgers · 16/01/2019 19:27

Ah, looks from the guardian live feed that all the opposition leaders have now pretty much said no talks with May unless she changes red lines and/or rules out no deal. So we're back to who blinks first territory.

Sostenueto · 16/01/2019 19:27

What 6 voted for her in the opposition parties then?

Sostenueto · 16/01/2019 19:28

No surprise there then bigly

MissMalice · 16/01/2019 19:28

Forgot to add in that they were found in contempt of Parliament also. It’s a joke.

MissMalice · 16/01/2019 19:28

Majority was 19 I think

JustAnotherPoster00 · 16/01/2019 19:28

Corbyn's will be untenable after he loses this one

Cant say I agree, he's so far doing what conference has asked, now he'll have to come out with more detail on Labours plan whatever that might be

MarshaBradyo · 16/01/2019 19:29

Wow very close

TatianaLarina · 16/01/2019 19:30

“Tories May split over CU”

“Brexit-backing Tories have warned the prime minister she risks causing a serious split among Conservatives – and even a permanent breakaway – if she offers any flexibility on a customs union to gain support for her withdrawal deal.

“Downing Street ruled out customs union membership prior to the start of the cross-party Brexit talks Theresa May promised.

“The prime minister responded to her historic defeat over the meaningful vote on Tuesday by pledging to speak to “senior parliamentarians” to identify a deal that could secure a majority.

“But the Labour frontbench position under Jeremy Corbyn is for a permanent customs union, and so too the Tory backers of a Norway-style Brexit deal. So it is unlikely talks with either group will get off the ground if May stands by that red line.

“Privately, some ministers and MPs believe the prime minister can only achieve some form of cross-party consensus by pledging permanent customs union membership. “There is no other way,” one frontbencher said. “At some point, that penny will drop.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/tory-party-split-theresa-may-caves-customs-union-brexiters-warn

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 16/01/2019 19:30

@JimMFelton
Alright the universe is taking the piss now
RT @supermathskid
For the record, 325 votes out of 631 is about 52%

MissMalice · 16/01/2019 19:30

Only Tory and DUP voted for her with one Ind Lady Hermon.

Lucygoeswalkies · 16/01/2019 19:31

Glitteryfrog - re Tom Watson: absolutely!

MissMalice · 16/01/2019 19:32

Beginning to think the options are No Deal or splitting up the Tories. Country or party - which will she destroy?

LouiseCollins28 · 16/01/2019 19:33

People are honestly comparing the Prime Minister of a freely and fairly elected government, in whom the House has confirmed its confidence in the last 15 minutes to a “tinpot dictator”. I know MN is remainer central but that claim is absurd.

prettybird · 16/01/2019 19:34

Yes.

MelanieCheeks · 16/01/2019 19:40

A50 can be delayed if there's a reasonable prospect of a solution.

Backstop/ border issues is the main sticking point.

Delay A50 while we have a border poll in NI Smile

Ach, I'm a Norn Irn prod with heartfelt republican leanings, and whilst I'd love to think "A Nation Once Again" and pragmatic "better in an Ireland in EU than in UK put of it", I recognise that such an option is likley to be hard fought, potentailly violently.

MissMalice · 16/01/2019 19:42

Did you miss any/all of the points I just made that make the situation far less clear than your post makes out, Louise? Also the PP is only one person so it’s not “people” and the PP did not say May is like, she said is not far off.

I hadn’t come across the term tinpot dictator before but having googled that and then googling autocratic, I’d probably agree with that PP.

*tin pot dictator - An autocratic ruler with little political credibility, but with self-delusions of grandeur.
*autocratic - taking no account of other people's wishes or opinions; domineering.

bellinisurge · 16/01/2019 19:45

Remainer here who does not think May is a tinpot dictator. This situation is fucked up. She's trying to get through a decision that allows is to leave on tolerable terms. It was rejected. She's doing what she sees as her best to deliver a tolerable leave. Rather her than some ERG headbanger at No 10.

Hazardswan · 16/01/2019 19:45

Those definitions sound about right miss