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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

OP posts:
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RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 16:35

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
The way of solving a problem caused by there being a Brexit referendum where nobody thought about what to do in the event of an unexpected Leave vote cannot be to have another Brexit referendum where nobody has thought about what to do in the event of an unexpected Leave vote.

Indeed.

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 16:37

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Senior Lab source told me night of the Brexit vote defeat that it would be the the likes of senior figures such as Cooper & Benn, who aren’t Brexiteers & don’t want #2ndref, who might team with Boles/Letwin et al to extend A50 & pave way for softer Brexit

Fascinating

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 16:40

Many Labour MPs fail to grasp that May can not remove no deal as an option as its the default, without first having an alternative plan which has the support of 315 MPs

Or, they grasp it perfectly well ?

We're back to square one. It's not Labours job to manage Brexit. The only real thing Labour can - and should do - is repeatedly point out that the Leave campaign won. Managed to get a pro-Leave Tory government elected. Has had over 2 years to sort things out. And still we're no closer than when we started.

The real story is Leave is a busted flush. Why should they get any more bites of what's left of a visibly shrinking cherry ?

Wanders off to do some statistical analysis involving parliament, and actuaries (had to write that in code. Don't want anyone thinking it's seriously unpleasant do I ?)

lonelyplanetmum · 17/01/2019 16:41

Not following the recent posts as I've lost the thread since DGR was deleted! But I walked back on the school run with a Mum whose DH was a vocal Leaver.

I remember discussing the ref with him in June 2016. This family are notionally (agnostic) Muslims. I remember asking wasn't he bothered that by voting Leave he was supporting some people who had a racist agenda. He was passionate st the time about the benefits of Leave- membership fee etc.(0.7% GDP! )

This friend the DW asked me what I think of it all now, especially the week's events. I told her in no uncertain terms! Then as she had introduced the topic I said had your DH changed his mind? She said:
" Oh he doesn't really know anything about politics- he doesn't really follow it"
Agghh! He was so enthusiastically a Leave voter too, and I thought at least he had a disaster capitalist justification for voting as he did.

Makes me so mad that a voter with a strong view now can say he's not that interested.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 16:41

news.sky.com/story/brexit-tweets-mps-cant-delete-shown-on-billboards-11609810
This might cause a little stir!

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 16:41

Dunno. We never got that far in our budding relationship. Must have been political disengagement setting in early.

GrinGrinGrinGrinGrinGrin

Hasenstein · 17/01/2019 16:41

And if we want to talk about exhortations to violence, let's look closer at the Leave side of the fence

In last year's march (the 700,000 one), I've never seen so many bored looking policemen. All those people and no-one to arrest.

The counter-demonstration had, I seem to recall, about 2,500 people with a disproportionate police presence and lots of police-baiting (not sure about arrests)..

IsobelKarev · 17/01/2019 16:42

Another leave vote wouldn't unexpected. And would have to be followed through. Hence why No Deal would be such a dangerous option to have on a ballot.

Shambu · 17/01/2019 16:43

Many Labour MPs fail to grasp that May can not remove no deal as an option as its the default, without first having an alternative plan which has the support of 315 MPs...

I don't agree that they don't know this. Point is May has to agree in principle to remove No Deal before Parliament can devise an alternative plan. She can refus of course. And then Parliament can take matters into their own hands. I think they want to push her into explicit refusal to block No Deal.

BishBoshBashBop · 17/01/2019 16:44

RedToothBrush I agree. I think it will all be changed by back benchers working together.

However Corbyns mate, Aaron Bastini is currently on sky saying back benchers have no voice and it is only Corbyn who can get Brexit changed. 🤦🏼‍♀️

Shambu · 17/01/2019 16:44

Or, they grasp it perfectly well ?

Of course they do.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 16:46

Makes me so mad that a voter with a strong view now can say he's not that interested.

Which is why my eyebrows need a bit of lead on them when I hear the rumours of French style direct action here. If you look at every opportunity the Brexiteer camp have had to demonstrate their strength of feeling, you just feel that would be a noisy Wetherspoons for a bit.

Whereas the Remain camp summoned up over 700,00 people to march peacefully in London. (It would have been at least 2 more, but having done 2 marches, DWs health had to take priority.)

Anyway, since when did you defeat extremism by giving into it ?

borntobequiet · 17/01/2019 16:47

So the Conservative party can’t get rid of May...
The only way to get rid of May is for the Conservative party to cease to exist in its current form. Same for Labour/Corbyn.
And the Trump/Brexit synchronicity! Spooky or what...

Ta1kinPeace · 17/01/2019 16:48

Ye gods , 425 posts since last night !

Motheroffourdragons · 17/01/2019 16:48

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 16:53

So the Conservative party can’t get rid of May.

She could resign.

Thatcher stood down, after being told in no uncertain terms she would lose the second ballot. That was her chance to exit gracefully, but it was secured with a big stick.

However now there's no visible big stick for the Tory party grandees to wave at her, to prompt a resignation.

One thing which might work, is if someone who commands respect and is a known quantity stepped forward (or told her they were stepping forward) and started gathering the less fervent Leavers and remainers into a cohort ... pretty much starting to draw the line where a Tory split might happen. That could do it.

I can only think of John Major right now. Which can't be a good thing ?

BishBoshBashBop · 17/01/2019 16:56

Thatcher stood down, after being told in no uncertain terms she would lose the second ballot. That was her chance to exit gracefully, but it was secured with a big stick.

Can't now have a second no confidence vote for a year under Tory Party rules.

UnnecessaryFennel · 17/01/2019 16:56

There's a Let's Go WTO rally tonight in Westminster Hall, with Hoey, McVey, Dunkedinshit, Farage and King Gammon Tim 'Spoons, amongst many other notable frothers.

There appear to be tickets left... Grin

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 17/01/2019 16:56

Caroline Lucas talked earlier about wanting to remove no deal as an option. But more in mentioning how TM often used it as a form of blackmail into rallying support around what TM wanted. In her case at least I suspect the call to remove it as an option means to not actively pursue it as one (not the same as not planning for it of course). Can't speak for JC or the others though.

Apileofballyhoo · 17/01/2019 16:58

Did I hear incorrectly on the news that no 10 just said they don't want an extension even if EU offers one?

borntobequiet · 17/01/2019 16:58

Let’s Go WTO sounds like the worst kind of bubblegum 70s pop music.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 16:58

Can't now have a second no confidence vote for a year under Tory Party rules.

(peeved Grin) which I noted by implication ...

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 17/01/2019 17:01

Let's Go WTO
Those utter bastards. Forest they threaten ikea meatballs and now they co opt Pokemon. They have no shame

Shambu · 17/01/2019 17:01

Laura Kuenssberg

Cooper and Benn emerge after long meeting with David Lidington - absolutely adamant that PM has to take no deal off the table before there can be any compromise - they say also that Lidington did not mention any new ideas or ways forward

twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384

Loletta · 17/01/2019 17:05

In case you missed it. James O'Brien's exchange wIth JRM after the MV. Recommended watch.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XiWhq-8IZX8