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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

OP posts:
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RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 12:22

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Wed 9am Source briefing Gove Lidington leading cross party talks. ERG cross
Wed 11am Source briefing Lidington leading but with Gove, Smith, Barwell supporting
Thur 11am No10 brief Gove Lidington lead cross party talks
Thur 1130am @elliotttimes Gove off cast list for Lab meet

This is simply a tweet demonstrating that covering brexit is inconsistent bitty and contradictory.

Chaotic headless chickens.

Just who you want in charge of no deal.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 12:23

Andrea Leadsom reveals Govt has stripped all Brexit legislation from the Commons for the foreseeable future. No Immigration Bill 2nd reading and no return of the Trade Bill next week. Paralysis confirmed.

You could play "project fear bingo" as things come to pass.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 12:24

Gove off cast list for Lab meet

I wonder why ?

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 12:24

Perhaps going out on a limb here, something that historians or DGR might toy with for a moment, but my non scientific observation would be that the UK government (of the day) seem to be in the foreground of quite a number of 'terrorist' hot spots. India/Pakistan, Israel/Middle east and Ireland being the ones top of my head.
Ultimately if terrorism is to be stopped there are only 2 solutions. One is to totally eliminate 'one side', and the other is dialogue, however much it may rankle. I of course would wholeheartedly opt for dialogue.

Motheroffourdragons · 17/01/2019 12:25

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

falcon5 · 17/01/2019 12:26

Thanks for clearing up how plan b debate is managing to meet the grieve amendment (table on 21st, debate on 29th). But wasn't it part of the EU withdrawal act that if the government hadn't made a deal by Jan 21st they had to make a statement to house? Is tabling that plan b then the statement? Or do they still.have to do the neutral motion after debating plan b in 29th?

LonelyandTiredandLow · 17/01/2019 12:27

Interesting Rosetti - I stopped doing yougov surveys when they asked a series of brexit questions wth fixed answers that didnt let me say anything other than 'brexit is great' in a nutshell. No faith in their numbers at all now.

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 12:27

@CheekySquirrel

The 'using No Deal to leverage the EU' ship has sailed. They've done their deal & been very clear no more is forthcoming.

No. No Deal is a gun at the head of Parliament now. To try and force them to eat her re-heated bowl of dog sick Deal when she serves it up a second time.

And behind them, the UK electorate (some of whom are too dim to understand what it means!).

And I'm glad you think she's not crazy enough to do it - because I'm suitably terrified. She's intransigent and utterly committed to the task of keeping the Conservative Party together, and in power (hence the 'X-Party talks', which are clearly about blame-storming , so the Cons can claim X-Party responsibility for No Deal).

And the HoC knows she's intransigent & doesn't give a stuff about the welfare of you and me.

Hence their attempts to prise the gun from her crazy, stubborn hands.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 12:28

Perhaps going out on a limb here, something that historians or DGR might toy with for a moment, but my non scientific observation would be that the UK government (of the day) seem to be in the foreground of quite a number of 'terrorist' hot spots. India/Pakistan, Israel/Middle east and Ireland being the ones top of my head.

Because we meddled where we shouldn't have meddled ... and chickens are coming home to roost.

Trevor Noahs Netflix special has a 10 minute riff on Brexit to an American audience who seem quite switched on. There's fuck all love for Britain there. The basic jist was it's rather hypocritical of the British to get in a lather over immigration, when they spent the better part of 200 years imposing themselves by force around the globe.

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 12:28

what is the meaningful vote mark II on?

May has said that Plan B is Plan A.

Except Plan A got knocked into next week.

Then May said we'll talk about an alternative Plan B, but it seems that compromise on Plan B seems to look a lot like Plan A except claiming Labour are not playing fair cos they won't do all the compromising.

In the mean time the government is trying to remove all other Brexit related parliamentary business from the HoC so MPs can't add more of those pesky amendments in an effort to remove no deal from the table.

May just wants to make the meaningful vote the meaningless vote so she can get the WA through because the only alternative is no deal.

If that is indeed her strategy we will get no deal.

derxa · 17/01/2019 12:29

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/11/second-brexit-referendum-ireland-lisbon-polls
Ireland had a rerun and the result was very different from the first. I sure you've all discussed this to death before.

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 12:32

Jim Pickard@pickardje
Number 10 very clear at lobby today they aren’t flexible on

1) second referendum
2) customs union
3) extending Article 50
4) dropping no-deal threat

even as they continue to make noises about potential cross-party compromise

Downing St says customs union is unacceptable: “The PM is absolutely clear on the importance of having an independent trade policy to honour the result of the referendum.”

That’s an odd interpretation of the 2016 referendum question which asked only if UK should leave or remain.

AND THERE YOU HAVE IT.

No 10s definition of 'compromise'.

Mistigri · 17/01/2019 12:33

Frexit is not mentioned much any more here in France given the UK results but one of the key Gilets Jaunes demands popular among the more mainstream elements is for a kind of people's referendum,

The Gilet Jaunes movement is being if not driven then at least strongly pushed by the RN (formerly the Front National ie Le Pen and her merry gang of neo-fascists) and whatever Asselineau calls his party these days. Asselineau for those who don't follow French politics is our (thankfully less politically astute) version of Nigel Farage, basically he is Farage with all the bits that make Farage interesting and appealing to a certain class of voter surgically removed. He is supported by old fashioned eurosceptics of the kind who originally set up UKIP, before it became the BNP-lite.

Frexit has very little support among the younger left wing voters who pad out the GJ marches but it always appears near the top of any list of GJ demands.

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 12:34

@DarenGap

If the WA is delivered, I expect a lot of anger. As it becomes clear that Brexit negotiations will drag on for another decade as the UK gets poorer and poorer - and we're still tied to the EU (with fewer benefits and say).

If No Deal is delivered I expect chaos, frankly. 'Anger' doesn't cover it.

And it's an authoritarian, right-wing coup.

I'd rather take s bit of anger and a stable society with the EU, frankly.

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 12:35

It's deranged, Red.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 17/01/2019 12:36

at times the desperate reach for a negative spin on anything (JC) does makes me cringe

I'm no great admirer of the PM as countless posts show, but I'd suggest the search for negatives about JC is hardly a desperate one when he offers them so generously. Even leaving spin aside, this is an individual who lost a VONC among his own MPs by a colossal 172 - 40

And yet he's still there, snarling about confidence in others ... possibly the greatest gift to the Tories there's ever been or ever will be

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 12:37

Lewis Goodall @Lewis_goodall
Speaking to a Labour source, they said two things: (1) Labour will bring a confidence motion at least once more, when PM’s plan B is better known and (2) Corbyn is v unlikely ever to support 2nd ref in any circumstances. Another source said if he tried half Shadow cab would walk.

Whooopppieeee!

So not just another meaningless vote replay but also another pointless 'vote for your own party vote' .

PerverseConverse · 17/01/2019 12:38

There appears to be no feasible way forwards so the only thing that is feasible is to forget the whole nightmare and stay in the EU.

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 12:40

May is challenging the ghost of Henry Ford. You can have any type of Brexit as long as its my Brexit.

SusanWalker · 17/01/2019 12:42

We've already wasted a whole day on a VONC. Time is ticking away and we need to find a way through.

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 12:42

Robert Peston@peston
Which party will fracture and break up first under strain of Brexit, Labour or Tory?

m.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2257386194586113/

What did I say?

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 12:43

Labour/Corbyn are pushing hard on 'No Deal off the table'.

It is genuinely a move in the right direction.

And I see PV being put forward as a Bill, personally.

Pushing no No Deal, then PV, is a Good Thing.

I know it's hard to believe, after 2 years of shit, but it IS good.

And, yes, an email to your MP insisting they pressure for May to promise to Revoke A50 should no agreement be reached, is a good email to send.

usuallydormant · 17/01/2019 12:43

Sorry mother, I know that annoys you but your position strikes me as very dog in the manger and drives me crazy. You want to see them suffer as there is no out for you. Would you really prefer the whole UK to crash out rather than see NI be treated differently?

I know it has been said before but the NI and Scotland situations are aeons apart. Like it or not, Scots are only British, the Northern Irish can be both British and Irish and thus remain EU citizens. And the whole peace process and land border with the EU thing..... Plus the fact that a hard border will damage my homeland - remember, we in RoI had no say in Brexit. Some estimates say that our GDP will be damaged worse than the UK in the case of a crash out. The NI backstop would help mitigate the worst - by refusing to allow NI an escape route you are wilfully wishing damage to RoI as well. As I said, I'm not British, I have no ties to your union. I'm interested in Brexit because of the damage it is wrecking on Europeans and specifically, on the Irish.

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 12:45

Anna Soubry @ Anna_Soubry
Hilary Benn observes the PMs attitude appears to be “the door is open but my mind is closed” @adamboultonSKY #Brexit

derxa · 17/01/2019 12:46

Robert Peston@peston Which party will fracture and break up first under strain of Brexit, Labour or Tory?
Fight Club?