Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

[BigChocFrenzy]

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

One posted an Australian clip of a news reader (?) going over how easy it should all be (still!) Which got Lots of shares - people still don't understand the complexities 2 years on.

I'm afraid that part of the population is a lost cause. No matter what happens, they will NEVER question brexit.

Problem with a GE is also if Tories replace May with a good orator and debater and he would be complete toast.

Completely disagree with him politically but Gove was very good in parliament yesterday and Corbyn would be no contest.

The Gove/Watson exchange yesterday if you take party politics out of it completely was a different level to May/Corbyn.

Yes Corbyn only looks as good as he does at PMQs because May herself is so bad. I don't think any party would win a GE to be honest. I think it would just be more of a mess.

I agree with Corbyn when he says the inequality in the country needs addressing but brexit is going to make it worse.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6601991/Tony-Blair-joins-condemnation-Corbyn-REFUSING-hold-Brexit-talks.html
I know everybody hates Blair at the moment but he would never have behaved the same way as Corbyn in this position. TB's right that a new referendum is needed. I would rerun the 2016 one. Leave or Remain.
The we will know what the 'will of the people really is'. If we only had some mature politicians then a cross party Brexit initiative would have been set up years ago.

@bellinisurge Which one kills people? Which ones are a bit grim but manageable?

I don't know, it doesn't seem anybody really does! To me, no deal looks to be the worst option. The potential for supply issues with food and medicines could certainly lead to deaths. As could the potential for problems in Ireland. However I've seen suggestions revoking A50 and effectively cancelling Brexit could lead to anger from the far right and civil unrest/riots. This doesn't seem that far-fetched when you consider that it wasn't long ago when 1 man being shot by police in London caused riots in several cities across the UK, including my own which is nowhere near London...

As I said, @purplecat27 , both WA and No Brexit are grim in different ways. But either is better than No Deal.

@purplecat27 was that in 2011? I was thinking about the London and Manchester riots the other day but could t remember what had caused them. I'd just started a new job in Manchester and was really worried about getting back home.

@SillySally, agree totally, both Watson and Gove spoke really strongly. Watson's speech surprised me by how good it was (not really rated him highly as a parliamentary speaker before now) I disagreed with it, but he put his case well.

I would rerun the 2016 one. Leave or Remain.

And what if "Leave" wins again ?

We are where we are, because Camerons arrogance led him to allow the referendum to be as stupid as it was. "Remain" was pretty much self explanatory. However "Leave" is just a word. It had zero substance. For some it was all-out. For others it was simply leaving the CU. And then in decreasing reflection on brainpower, it was things like ECHR, bendy bananas, and "taking back control".

Any new referendum must be on clearly defined and deliverable outcomes. Hence WA (and then onto a new relationship) versus Remain.

It's arguable that should WA win, there should then be a GE, so we can have a period of stability in which to negotiate the terms we can.

I would be curious to know if any supposedly "developed" country has ever has such an asinine referendum as the 23/6/2016 one in the UK ?

On a separate note, reservists being called up is going to cause some pain in some businesses.

The problem with TM taking no deal off the table is that leaves her with no leverage with Europe. Europe don’t want a no deal situation either and may be more amenable to other negotiations to stop it happening. As soon as that’s definitely not a possibility I think TM loses any leverage at all.
That’s just my take on it. Really I’m hoping that secretly she’s already ruled out no deal but can’t formally say because of the above.
She’d have to be crazy to take us into a no deal.

However I've seen suggestions revoking A50 and effectively cancelling Brexit could lead to anger from the far right and civil unrest/riots.

If politicians feel threatened into making decisions, then we've crossed the line. That's Nazism, pure and simple.

The problem with TM taking no deal off the table is that leaves her with no leverage with Europe.

And with each passing day, with the EU quietly prepping for no deal, that leverage is weakening anyway.

I think there's a great problem here in that a lot of UK politicians are projecting their mores and behaviour onto the EU. Maybe if they's spent the past 46 years engaging with Europe, rather than making up stories about it, there would be a clearer understanding.

True.
I guess I’m just clinging on to the hope that that is why it’s being presented as a possibility.

If Brexit (in whatever form) is cancelled then I would expect a great deal of anger.
As it would mean the result of the largest vote in the UK had effectively been ignored.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Meaningful vote round 2 - January 29th

Whoooppppiiieeeeee!

Is this frustrating the will of Parliament?

So Jeremy Corbyn will meet with Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRA with no preconditions, but won't meet with the British Prime Minister without her agreeing to his precondition

Hard to argue with ...

Whataboutery at it's finest. I know some of you hate JC at least as much as you hate the idea of a No Deal Brexit, but at times the desperate reach for a negative spin on anything he does makes me cringe.

Yep @DarienGap and it would be incumbent upon politicians and the rest of us to address that directly. As bad as it would be it would not be the catastrophe of No Deal.

Jeez, catching up is a full time job, thanks to all. A few disjointed thoughts from someone across the channel transfixed by the ongoings ....

On the Macron response, which I thought was spot on, there is an additional lesson for the French that I am sure he was keen to underline. Frexit is not mentioned much any more here in France given the UK results but one of the key Gilets Jaunes demands popular among the more mainstream elements is for a kind of people's referendum, where once a certain number of people sign a petition, there has to be a national referendum on the issue. I think Brexit demonstrates very clearly the dangers of people voting on complex issues. The Swiss, who are very used to voting in referendum, also voted against FOM, influenced greatly by right wingers, and have had to backtrack ever since (difference being their govt basically admitted that it was impossible to implement without losing out big time economically) Macron has given in on a lot of the GJ demands but I really hope he stands firm on the calls for the people's referendum initiative as its just a back door for extremist policies. He's probably v pleased to be able to use Brexit as a cautionary tale.

If a GE meant that the DUP was no longer in the driving seat, and the backstop could be on NI only (as originally planned) and not UK wide (as demanded by May), would this make the WA more palatable? I know Scotland will be incensed but surely better than a crash out no deal or the current WA (and they can always do an Indy rerun)? I mean, it's not like Westminster actually care about NI and the majority of people in NI are ok with the backstop.

I've been told (but can't find the data) that the majority in RoI are for a UI when asked directly, but once you add a price tag, the % crashes. And context will be all. It's one thing voting for a positive, if expensive reunification in normal times but if it is conducted after a crash out, when Ireland's economy north and south has been totally trashed due to the incompetence and arrogance of Westminister, people might be less likely to agree to all the difficulties that will be involved, politically and financially.

Unless FOM red lines change or the DUP is sent packing, I can't see anything but crash out on the cards. My initial bet that May would revoke at the last minute has changed over the last days. I still think your best option is WA. Personally , I think it is the only realistic option and I really hope the EU stand firm and allow no changes unless the UK come up with a viable alternative that respects the four freedoms. Or, ensures that any extension does not mean the UK are entitled to elect MEPs in the upcoming elections. Sorry, but speaking as a non Brit Europeans, we don't need your angry ukippers (although sorry to see the likes of Seb Dance go).

It's not whataboutery, it's "this is how inconsistent and poor he is". I'm nearly as old as him, I remember his back bench nonsense and it is indicative of how he is now. He wasn't some silly kid when he did those things. He was a mature adult.

YouGov surveys aren't that reliable when they discount a "neither" option.

I took that survey, and you have to choose from TM, JC, or DK.

So a lot - if not all - of that "41%" might be saying neither under any circumstance.

I've met some folk from YouGov, who are pretty good at their stuff. They told me that if I noticed an oddity in surveys as above, it would probably be because their client had instructed them to ask that way.

So I'd be curious who commissioned that survey ...

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Andrea Leadsom reveals Govt has stripped all Brexit legislation from the Commons for the foreseeable future. No Immigration Bill 2nd reading and no return of the Trade Bill next week. Paralysis confirmed.

Govt has also just bought itself another week's delay.
Leadsom confirms PM will table Plan B motion on Monday, meeting Grieve amendment requirement, but it won't be debated until Tues 29th - two clean months before Brexit Day.

Wooohhoooo

Just what we need, to not give parliamentary time to stuff that needs parliamentary time cos if we don't have it we have legal chaos on 30th March in addition to all the other problems of Brexshit.

The Swiss experience of dealing with the EU was mentioned a while back (I know, I mentioned it). For all their bluster, they backed down.