Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

OP posts:
Thread gallery
20
DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 10:17

How come May gets a pass when she claims her decisions are bound by her parties policy, but Corbyn gets excoriated ? If nothing else, it suggests in a damned if you do/damned if you don't strategy, there's sense in keeping your own party onside.

If there were to be a Labour leadership challenge, Corbyn can point to the fact he was carrying out the parties will - as decided at conference ?

prettybird · 17/01/2019 10:21

So much for May being prepared to listen Hmm

Nicola Sturgeonn* @NicolaSturgeon

So everything is not on the table. PM’s offer of talks is a promise to listen, but only if we all agree with her.
@theSNPP^ won’t be complicit in more time wasting. Rule out no deal, be prepared to extend Art 50 and agree to at least consider another referendum - then we’ll talk.

Quote Tweet
Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR
David Mundell tells #bbcgms “everything is on the table” for cross party talks, but says that excludes “arrangements that seek to stop Brexit” - including another referendum
8:58 am · 17 Jan 2019 ·

Daddybegood · 17/01/2019 10:22

I agree motheroffourdragons it would make him the better person but it's also a Tory trap. Her deadlines, her A50, her red lines, her negotiations, her defeat in the commons....she never wanted to listen before (and I doubt she does now) but she sure wants someone to blame....tomorrow it will be the EU again

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 10:22

All of a sudden, Corbyn looks wise and dignified ...

prettybird · 17/01/2019 10:23

DGR - have I missed something? Is Corbyn now pushing for a PV? Isn't that what Conference directed him to do if he failed to get a GE? Hmm

PerverseConverse · 17/01/2019 10:26

Thanks for the links Mistigri and borntobequiet. I remember reading something at the time now. someone pointed out the other day that the DUP didn't want the GFA. This whole mess makes my head hurt and my heart heavy.

SillySallySingsSongs · 17/01/2019 10:29

Is Corbyn now pushing for a PV

No he is staying remarkably quiet.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 10:31

I actually support Corbyn on this Shock

I agree.

Even if he agreed to meet her for form’s sake it’s not as if they can get anywhere.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 10:32

DGR - have I missed something? Is Corbyn now pushing for a PV? Isn't that what Conference directed him to do if he failed to get a GE

I'm hoping we're still in transit Hmm

Of course if Corbyn does not carry out the conference vote, he opens the door to a leadership challenge ...

Mistigri · 17/01/2019 10:32

So everything is not on the table.

Quelle surprise.

Corbyn and his minders 100% right on this occasion - although it pains me to type that.

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 10:33

My cat looks wise and dignified. Corbyn looks out of ideas.
Yes, the DUP hate GFA as do most extreme Tory Brexiteers ... isn't it surprising that a consequence of what they want smashes GFAHmm

DarlingNikita · 17/01/2019 10:38

All of a sudden, Corbyn looks wise and dignified
Pahahhaaahaahhaa

Corbyn is a bullish and blinkered egotist. If he were interested in being a grown-up he could and should create, effectively, a parliament in exile. Rather than posturing about not talking to May he should be talking to all the other opposition parties; they could invite Tory back-benchers to come and talk to them on an open-door basis and come up with a consensus on how to act.

May's majority is so slim that it would only take a few Tory rebels for Corbyn/Labour and all the other parties to be able to form a parliamentary majority. They could then simply bypass May and get on with being the grown-ups in the room – deal with the serious business of Brexit while just letting the Tory party tear itself apart in the background.

IsobelKarev · 17/01/2019 10:41

Isn't that what Conference directed him to do if he failed to get a GE?

No, the conference directed him to consider ALL options, including a PV. I'm inherently anti-PV but I can understand why many (particularly Labour) remainers would be angry at him for not.

I actually don't blame Corbyn one tiny bit for not meeting May, and all the talk about Hamas etc is just whatabooutery. The SNP and Lib Dem leaders met with her, told her exactly the same thing but in private and she made a press statement in front of No. 10 claiming the talks were constructive and implied that the only sticking point was JC. Not a chance I would even consider meeting her, and if I were SNP or Lib Dem I'd have immediately made a press statement that the characterisation was inaccurate and that due to her dishonesty I was no longer prepared to talk to her.

Whilst those of us following closely know what she said was nonsense, I think there are a lot of people who don't bother reading beyond the headlines / watching 10 mins of the news before getting bored of the whole saga and won't have realised that.

IMO, the best way out is to essentially restart the whole thing. Ask the EU for a significant extension (eg a year) and have a proper cross-party talks to agree a plan without the imminent threat of No Deal. Which is almost exactly what all of the opposition parties are asking for. But I don't see why the EU would even consider agreeing to that tbh.

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 10:41

Here's a picture of wise and dignified. Another MN-eras beautiful cat.
I saved the photo for my cat mad dd.

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in
Mistigri · 17/01/2019 10:42

Yes I agree that Corbyn should be talking to other parties here.

Talking to May is clearly a waste of time, although not talking to her will be used as a blunt instrument against him (but so would talking to her, and I think he has called this right).

ginpink · 17/01/2019 10:57

Placemarking

Somerville · 17/01/2019 10:57

Neil Gaiman has it right, on Twitter. Traditionally, I believe this is the point where you behead the entire current parliament and start again, with a fresh batch of newly-incentivised politicians.

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 10:59

Neil Gaiman needs to be careful about his language (Can't believe I'm saying that because he's a fab writer)

JustAnotherPoster00 · 17/01/2019 11:01

I'm confused at this moment, for months on these thread we've seen repeated (and I agree) that no deal is gonna fuck us up badly, all the opposition and a fair few of the tories also agree with this. Corbyn said in parliament that May needs to rule out no deal, but yet he gets flak for not meeting her and telling her to her face that we dont want a no deal situation. Is it the case that some here as a blind when it comes to Corbyn as some of the brexiters are to the facts of Brexit?

He's come at this in a very linear way, first of all he had to try to get a GE, this was as everyone knows decided at conference, his next step is to get the no deal option off the table whether he does this in public or privately surely no deal off the table is what weve wanted on these threads for quite some time, so please help my confusion here, I know I'm a Corbyn fan but he's not above criticism in my mind Confused

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 11:08

He hasn't made a peep about getting no Deal off the table until forced to by his party. He could say it to her face. Which is what the other opposition parties seem to be doing.
He's currently giving more mileage to those who say he's useless. Because he's useless.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 11:10

I think the truth is he doesn’t like confrontation and he’s equally intransigent as May.

But there’s no point meeting May for the moment until she accepts she has lost, she will have to compromise, and needs to get a grip on reality.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 17/01/2019 11:11

He's right to say that No Deal isn't an option - but he played in to Tory hands by refusing

OhYouBadBadKitten · 17/01/2019 11:12

Refusing to say that face to face.
Sorry, the train bumped!

purplecat27 · 17/01/2019 11:12

Hi all, I've been a lurker here but haven't posted before. I'm trying to get my head around where we could go from here, and what that could mean, so please forgive my ramblings, and if you do manage to read then please correct me if I'm wrong and share your ideas.

The WA: Currently the only deal-looking thing we have, but given a huge thumbs down by the HoC. May has until Monday to bring this back with some changes and possibly try to get a thumbs up... but has already stated her red lines won't be changing, and Europe has also said no changes. Therefore thumbs up unlikely.

PV: Main argument seems to be this is undemocratic, I'd disagree. However I thought this was what I wanted, but now I'm not so sure. All the news bits where they ask random Joe public what they think seem to be finding lots of leavers who, even now, want a no deal goodbye on 29th March, suggesting there's an awful lot of them out there, so I'm afraid this might not go my way. I can also see why they'd be feeling pretty pissed off if we get a PV.

Extension of A50: As I understand it all 27 EU members have to agree to an extension. I've seen suggestions that they'd agree only if it was for a PV or a GE, neither is currently on the cards. I've also seen suggestions of an extension until June, does anyone know if this is for general faffing, or does it come with stipulations? Even so, if it's taken nearly 2 years to get this far, is an extra 3 months likely to achieve something the vast majority is happy with?

No deal: The ticking timebomb seemingly favoured by many members of the public, and very few in the house. It looks to me that the majority of MPs are (IMO rightly) terrified of this option. I'm wondering if they'd be scared enough that if another NC motion was called, they would vote against May just to stop this from happening. There seems to be many reasons to fear this, but as I understand it the main ones are a) transport/customs problems leading to stock issues of food, medicines etc. b) could lead to a situation which would mean contravention of the GFA. I've seen suggestion that a no deal could be great in the long-term, but are the short-term consequences so great they outweigh any potential benefits?

Revoking A50: My preferred option, May seems unlikely to do this, and nobody really seems to want to be 'that guy'. I've seen suggestions of civil unrest/riots if this happens. It seems lots of us here want to stop Brexit and remain, but at what cost? What could the consequences of this be?

To summarise, as I understand it, if the WA doesn't get it's thumbs up on Monday the only options left are revoke prior to 29th March, or no deal on 29th March (or I guess another motion of NC). They could ask for an extension, but this might come with stipulations (GE or PV) rather than general faff, so might not be granted. Is my understanding of this correct? Regardless of what people want to happen next, what do think is actually the most likely thing to happen next?

Thanks for reading if you've managed to get this far :)

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 11:13

He doesn't like confrontation but he gets into bed with the IRAHmm? That's not whataboutery , that's an example of his poor judgement which has not improved.

Swipe left for the next trending thread