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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

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bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 08:39

Talking to the IRA when you had no authority or weight behind you other than your own personal profile. Yep, that was a bad thing.
Despite what the teenagers in Momentum say, he had nothing to do with the peace process. It was the hard graft of people like Mo Mowlem who is "conveniently " dead that made the peace process.
I'm old. Posing dickheads like Corbyn are 10 a penny on the fringes of the Labour Party and have no place doing grown ups' work because they get bored and fuck it up.
He should meet with May.

Mistigri · 17/01/2019 08:41

You don't vote for a party though: you vote for an MP. I think it's a mistake to fall into the ideological purity trap which saw Trump get elected.

I would no longer support the Labour Party with my money, time or campaigning energy. But (if I get my vote back) I'd vote for a competent and sane remain Labour candidate (Lammy in my case). I'd also vote tactically if that was an option. I certainly wouldn't be refusing to vote Labour in a Labour-Tory marginal: that's tantamount to voting Tory. The second worst option is by definition better than the worst.

SalrycLuxx · 17/01/2019 08:42

I agree. He should meet with May. If she won’t tske no deal off the table, it would be better for him to be clear that he told her that’s a fools errand than to refuse to talk.

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 08:47

Mistigri , my local MP is pretty sane and decent and has made the mistake of taking on half is constituency by supporting the destruction of Green Belt for a local plan.
If Labour came out for No Brexit, I might hold my nose and vote for him despite the fact Corbyn the twat is their leader. On the least worst basis. But that's the only way I would vote Labour in the unlikely event of a GE now.
I would vote No Brexit in a PV. But I fear any PV that has No Deal Brexit as an option because some people are stupid enough to support that.

Motheroffourdragons · 17/01/2019 08:48

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borntobequiet · 17/01/2019 08:49

The problem is that many do think they vote for a party and particularly a party leader, and the media reinforce this narrative. (Damn you, useless education system.)
I have no idea how this can be effectively countered, nor can I see how the “both main parties support Brexit because it’s the will of the people, most people voted for one of these two parties therefore most people support Brexit” can be defused when so many are confused as to the way the electoral system works or what a party manifesto really is.

jasjas1973 · 17/01/2019 08:50

I had high hopes for Corbyn but feel totally let down by him and the Labour front bench, none of them will get my vote.

If brexit goes through, i suspect i will not bother voting again as i see it as supporting a "democracy" where 36% of the electorate (and reducing) has succeeded in dictating to the country, with zero possibility to undo what has been done at any subsequent election.

Mistigri · 17/01/2019 08:50

The problem for Corbyn is that he can't be sure that he will get fair press coverage of any meeting with May. The press can easily spin it as Jeremy being the problem. Let her talk to Lucas and Sturgeon and see where that gets her.

I don't like Corbyn, but no one who is honest about their bias can claim that the U.K. press reports him fairly.

prettybird · 17/01/2019 08:53

I've not criticised Corbyn for calling the VNC, even though we knew it would be a waste of time Confused It was a necessary step for him to go through in order for him to follow through the rest of the Labour Party's resolution.

Dh and I disagree about whether he should have gone to see her. I think he should have done what the SNP and LibDems did, which is go and meet her and then state that unless she does some moving on her red-lines, then future discussion is pointless. By not going, he made the headlines about him, not her and pleated into the hands of both May and rightwing MSM.

Dh says meeting her was pointless as he'd already asked her those questions in open forum (the floor of the HoC) and she'd refused to budge, so what was the point in going through the same exercise behind closed doors Hmm

Daddybegood · 17/01/2019 08:56

Well said Frankiestein, I couldn't agree more. Whilst I am more of a libdem, Corbyn has been true to his conference commitments. The right wing press will try to pass the buck onto Corbyn just as they did to the libdems in coalition, then they throw in 14 pages of some goady, inflammatory rubbish about sharing a platform with Hamas, the IRA and Chavez and what do you know.....we end up with 'strong and stable' (in coaltion with another formerly aligned terrorist organisation like the DUP) and cosy middle class mumsnetters end up aghast at the mess (as they browse their right wing news feeds.) ...even though many facilitated it by voting Tory.
If David M, Ed M or any politician for labour had become PM we wouldnt be in this is mess now, so some of you need to look a bit closer to home. IT WAS TORY VOTERS THAT CAUSED THIS MESS.
I would hope for a PV with remain on the ballot but it's too early yet as nothing is even remtotely close (aside from the time bomb of the self imposed Tory deadline) Let TM ask for an extension to A50 (as she is the one who has run the clock down) and when she is really ready to talk (rather than just trying to convince others of her shit deal), she might just allow a PV, or a customs union to be a possibility.

Motheroffourdragons · 17/01/2019 08:57

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MissMalice · 17/01/2019 09:00

I think that whether he went or not she would have shifted the blame onto him. It’s been a significant part of their strategy for years.

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 09:00

Trouble for Corbyn is that older people (particularly Labour voters) can remember what he was like (is like) and don't need tbe alleged bad press he gets to remind them. May gets shit press too- Maybot, and all that. It's called being in front line politics.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 09:04

I wonder if there's any weight to my sneaking feeling that no deal should not appear on a referendum since to enact it requires breaking the GFA ?

It wasn't commented on much on Tuesday, but didn't the Attorney General tell some Brexiteers that the government could not put forward one of their amendments as it would involve breaking an international treaty ?

(My history is rusty, but there's a historical parallel when the Nazis held a plebiscite about the Anschluss Hmm )

On a different tack (early morning swimming is a great place to hear what the over 60s are thinking) what are the legal implications of a no deal ? One lady was wondering if courts would work the same between the EU and UK (I suspect there was some custody concerns ? ?

If we are headed for a no deal, I'd like a lot more detail ...

prettybird · 17/01/2019 09:05

Many, many years ago (over 20) a caller on the R2 Brian Hayes lunchtime show defined democracy as "The rule of the majority with the consent of the minority "

That consent has well and truly been withdrawn Sad - even if you ignore the point that the "democratic rulers" actually don't have a majority of the electorate under our FPTP system and the shenanigans of the referendum.

BiglyBadgers · 17/01/2019 09:05

I don't understand why people think Corbyn walking into a different room to say to May exactly what he has already said to her in public would make a bit of difference. It would still be reported as him obstructing talks where ever he says the words.

Motheroffourdragons · 17/01/2019 09:10

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MissMalice · 17/01/2019 09:17

I have come to thinking a PV is not the best way forward.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 09:18

If we pursue the question of no deal breaking the GFA, then it backs up to Could such a question be put on a referendum ballot by a government ?????

I would suggest the answer is "no". Any attempt to use a referendum to break an international treaty would be viewed very dimly by the rest of the world (who the UK expects to trade with).

If that is the case, then a PV can only be to leave the EU on the terms of the WA, or no Brexit.

Brexiteers may howl with rage and fury - something they are very good at. But their failure to deliver a clear and consistent vision of Brexit cannot be rewarded with no deal.

I am curious that no one else out of a gaggle of media experts has discussed this - even if to dismiss it Hmm ?

Motheroffourdragons · 17/01/2019 09:20

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Mistigri · 17/01/2019 09:22

Incidentally (I meant to say this earlier) has anyone else noticed an upsurge in Brexit interest? My FB today and yesterday is full of Labour voting UK friends talking about Brexit. They are mostly remainers but not committed ones ... I can't remember the last time I saw a FB post about Brexit from a friend in the U.K.

Maybe we have turned a corner ... can't help thinking that the reason why brexit polls haven't moved that much is that people weren't paying attention.

Now they are, I think we are on the brink of a collapse in support for Brexit (I thought it would happen much sooner, I didn't think it would get as far as the British public starting to stockpile food.)

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 09:25

wonder if there's any weight to my sneaking feeling that no deal should not appear on a referendum since to enact it requires breaking the GFA ?

Potentially. It’s been raised before and I don’t know the answer.

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 09:28

Id actually say the opposite on mine. My Leaver friend hasn't posted any Leaver crap for weeks. My local community FB pages, normally a hit bed of Will of the People Leavemeansleave tripe is silent on it.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 17/01/2019 09:32

So Jeremy Corbyn will meet with Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRA with no preconditions, but won't meet with the British Prime Minister without her agreeing to his precondition

Hard to argue with ...

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 09:35

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46900918
Wylfa Newydd: Hitachi to halt work on UK nuclear plant

None Brexit related, but something else to add to our woes.