Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

[RedToothBrush]

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

Admitting you've made a mistake is absolute anathema to the human psyche. It damages our self-esteem.

I'm a more than happy to admit I was wrong about the FTPA which I wanted, and I was wrong to ignore the warnings - from several experts - that it could lead to a zombie/lame-duck government that couldn't be dislodged, despite not being able to pass legislation.

I was badly wrong on both counts, and will take the charge that as a result things are this bad.

So not all humans hate to admit being wrong .....

{We all know that EU would like to become a state.}
And even it it were, what is the massive problem with it?
Integration would never become total.
The USA (hint, in the name) is a federation of 51 'countries'.
Although Russia had a name change for 'PR' purposes, it is still probably in the mindset of USSR. How a federation treats it's members is far more important than the fact it is a federation.

I think bellini's non-confrontational and practical approach to this issue is instructive hear hear.

Yes the Farage comments arose because I suggested that the reason we think MEPs are useless, unelected and self serving is because Farage was chosen to represent us. And he has barely shown up except when in his own financial interest.

Apparently they could teach me a thing or two about how Farage has been good for us but they don't have the time.

I only know a handful of leavers but I tend not to argue with them (they get very personal, hostile and angry if I even mention mere facts). Their reasons involve:

Merkel wants to force all of us to take millions of immigrants like Germany did and we'll be overrun.
The Europeans are hysterical fools and we are the old empire who know how to do things properly (said to me by someone who is half italian)
The EU isn't working.
We can do better business outside of the EU.
The EU is a project for the liberal elite southerners.
It'll be good for our house prices to crash in the south so that we can be like us commoners in the north (said to me with vitriol and spittle by my MIL who is a professional northerner. I no longer speak to her unless I have to)

And apparently lots of other very sensible reasons that 'they won't get into because Remainers don't listen to the likes of them bring the liberal elite'.

All of them read only the Daily Mail and only watch BBC news.

I don't want to listen any more. I want them to listen to me.

We all know that EU would like to become a state.

This is a good example of the sort of thing that I'm genuinely not sure how you engage with.

The EU isn't a monolith, it's a union of 27 countries made up of many political actors with different views (although it can come together as a union when the stakes are high enough, as with the Irish border). Some of those political actors do see federation as the end point. Many don't.

My own view is that the expansion of the EU to Eastern Europe, which was strongly supported by the U.K., effectively ended any prospects of a federal Europe and this was probably part of the reason why the U.K. promoted this.

But the idea that the EU is inexorably focussed on a federal Europe and that political union will occur sooner rather than later is so firmly entrenched that we must "all know" that the EU would like to become a state.

The closer Gove’s involvement in cross party discussions the less engagement there will be from Sinn Fein (and to some extent all NI parties except the DUP.).

I also completely agree with the posts about "selling" information. Easy to sell a simple but false message. Hard to sell a complex reality-based one. I can't think of any current British politician who could do this. Lammy is great at this, but let's just say that putting a black Londoner at the head of the remain campaign would create ... challenges.

Yup, I agree with all of this. You have one group that says "whatever your problem leaving the EU will make it better", it's the magical silver bullet and a nice discussion about tax systems, voting options, immigration legislation and housing is always going to be a downer compared to the "just take this pill and magic your problems away."

As we know the EU was simply not on most people's radar before Cameron called the referendum and then it became snake oil.

Sure you might pursuade a few individuals by having a long talk about their problems and with listening and reasoned discussion but I can't see we have the time for that on mass. Long term goal, yes, to stop brexit, nope.

We are fighting against basic behaviour traits that we all are guilty off. We all want the quick fix and the simple solution, but there are no quick fixes and simple solutions to the problems people have faced in their lives for decades and will continue to face no matter what the outcome of the referendum.

I don't think most people thought about their problems and decided the answer was the leave the EU. They were handed the option of leaving the EU and they attached their problems to it and made it the solution, telling themselves that it was what they always wanted. It's the shiny kitchen gadgets we didn't know we needed until we saw it on the TV. It's the new dress that will make us look ten years younger. It's thought processes we all do all the time, but enforced by group think and confirmation bias and now sunk costs fallacies. All pushed up to 11.

It's a bloody mess. The whole country needs years of therapy to be honest.

{Le clerk, I think you misread. He doesn't have a grudge against the people, he has a grudge against the institution and the previous ref result (which he "lost" in his mind).}
But the EU is about people, the institutional side to the EU is necessary to make things happen.
Like the 700,000 march, all well and good, but although it is not in it's remit, the march did not cause a PHYSICAL change, but showed a change of 'feelz'. You need both.

But you can't 'sell' remain in a ref if you don't offer more than just the EU. I think that's very true. I voted Remain but I would waver in another vote if it ever happened. My perception of the EU as an entity and a concept is that it is self serving and undemocratic. I say perception even if it's not reality. The antics and intransigence of their leaders during negotiations have not endeared me to them. You may call me stupid if you like. Carry on

Whitehall meeting this morning to discuss how cross-party brexit talks might be structured. Possibly led by David Lidington, Julian Smith, Michael Gove & Gavin Barwell

Two major stumbling blocks to the cross party talks is the personalities of the leaders of the two major parties. They’re both loners, with a dogmatic belief in the rightness of their position, both out of touch with half their party, both don’t listen to anyone, both can’t easily work with other people.

So not all humans hate to admit being wrong .....

Agreed DGR. Otherwise there would be no such thing as a floating voter. But enough humans do find it troubling enough that their views can become entrenched very quickly. That's why any remain campaign needs to target those waverers and also speak to some of the views of leavers to stand a chance of changing their minds. E.g. national pride. "Remain to protect our great nation" "Remain to be at the heart of the greatest trading block" Not that I'm much cop at marketing, but you get the general idea

My perception of the EU as an entity and a concept is that it is self serving and undemocratic. I say perception even if it's not reality. The antics and intransigence of their leaders during negotiations have not endeared me to them.

So what would you have had them do differently ?

The antics and intransigence of their leaders during negotiations have not endeared me to them

As someone much better informed than me once posted on Twitter, both leavers and remainers made important "category errors" on Brexit:

Leavers thought the EU was weak. Remainers thought the EU was nice.

(I think it was Alexander Clarkson but I am too lazy to go and check. If you don't follow him, you should).

{But the idea that the EU is inexorably focussed on a federal Europe and that political union will occur sooner rather than later is so firmly entrenched that we must "all know" that the EU would like to become a state.}
I see this as a bit like navigating by the North Star on a night walk. You can all follow the idea, but know that you will never actually arrive. It gives focus to the enterprise.
Critically this is not what the UK is doing. It has said it wants out. OK, not my choice or idea.
So, on 30 March when it is out on the street in it's pants, which way is it headed? NO ONE has yet said anything practical. So how long will the UK be standing in the streets arguing?

Leavers thought the EU was weak. Remainers thought the EU was nice. How both sides made those assessments I've no idea.

My perception of the EU as an entity and a concept is that it is self serving and undemocratic
The thing is it’s the fact it’s self serving that had helped the UK economically. That was when the self serving was at the UK advantage.
Now that looking your own means it’s going againstbthe UK, it feels very wrong...
Like any club, the EU is nice when you are part of the club. There is a reason why the Us and Russia have such an issue it’s the EU!

Whitehall meeting this morning to discuss how cross-party brexit talks might be structured.
Miracle!!
The government has finally realised that to be able to find a consensus when you dint have the majority AND the issue is splitting parties anyway AND it’s such a huge issue for the future if the country, there is a need for a cross party work/agreement.
Ashame the realisation is coming so close to the No Deal date.

Did Remainers really think the EU was nice? I’m confused.
In all honesty I didn’t realise the EU would manage to be as strong and self-interested as they have been. I was worried they might crumble a bit around the edges, rather than lining neatly up behind Ireland in the way they’ve done.

Derxa, I agree, but I think you will find that both beliefs are still extremely widespread. It's a belief in the EU's "weakness" that is motivating no-deal supporters, and a belief that the EU is "nice" that has motivated many of the British in Europe (of whom I am one, but more cynical about the EU than average).

{The antics and intransigence of their leaders during negotiations have not endeared me to them.}
I find it a bit sad that you think that. The UK knew all the rules at the outset and the UK failed to engage properly in negotiating, so the EU team as likely as not wrote the WA just so that something could happen. The UK have failed to come up with a counterproposal that wouldn't destroy the fundamentals of the EU and has been arsey about it. the EU meanwhile have simply stood firm, as I hope they continue to do whatever happens to the UK, while the UK has engaged in childish name calling and disrespect. At some point enough is enough.

Somerville yes I think there is a persistent view among some remainers that the EU might for eg play nice re citizens' rights. And also great resistance to the characterisation of EU negotiating practices as "intransigent" (in Derxa's words), which I think speaks to naivety about international diplomacy and trade negotiations.

Remainers thought the EU was nice.

I’m not sure that’s true though. I don’t know any Remainers who were not critical of the EU. I think generally they felt that the pluses outweighed the minuses and that, anyway Leaving would be economically, politically, legally disastrous and there is no better option than the one we have right now. Everything else is worse.

So what would you have had them do differently ? If I knew that then I would be an expert political strategist which I'm clearly not. What the EU machine and the Westminster MPs seem to forget is that are the servants of the people who pay them. They're not thinking about the ordinary working person whose prosperity depends on their decisions. They have a hidalgo mentality. They have a position and their pride prevents them in shifting at all.

{Leavers thought the EU was weak. Remainers thought the EU was nice}
I have faith in the EU being strong and 'caring' for it's citizens. I have no illusions about it's ability to be ruthless against those who wish to destroy it.
The UK has been hiding behind the EU's apron for 40 years which has emboldened it to tackle Russia, China and the USA.
Bringing the tone down a lot, Mr Fox's trade negotiations may involve a lot of vaseline.

I don’t get the EU is nice idea

They need to get clarity and look after those who remain more than they do us

What the EU machine and the Westminster MPs seem to forget is that are the servants of the people who pay them.

But in this case, the EU "machine" has been strenuously upholding the interests of its members and their people - in particular the Irish people. I agree that the EU has been intransigent, but did you expect them to throw the Irish people under the bus?