Westminstenders: Plan B is Plan A again.

[RedToothBrush]

The voting starts around 7pm and is expected to finish up between 8pm and 8.20pm.

May is expected to lose. The question is by how much.

We are then expecting an immediate motion of no confidence in the government by Labour to be put forward.

May is expected to make a speech to calm the markets and then go to Brussels for an utterly pointless visit.

The Labour No Confidence is expected tomorrow afternoon after PMQs. Its expected to fail.

We move no closer to a resolution and ever closer to no deal.

Half the Cabinet want to go into cross party talks. Half the Cabinet don't.

May is apparently insistent that Plan B is Plan A. Which is what you would expect her to tell the house to comply with Grieve IV. Which again is bollocks.

But Bercow could yet refuse to indulge it.

If Plan B is Plan A again, then what's Plan C?

Crisis with a Capital C.

The stalemate grows.

We need Baldrick with a 'cunning plan'...

www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=-WxqBgjwe08
Posted at the end of the previous thread. Fast forward to about 27:30.
I might be in love!

AIBU to have developed a bit of a crush on Speaker Bercow over the last fortnight?

Way ahead of you, fancied him (and been the target of much mirth at work as a result) for a few years now.

Yes, of course MPs can abstain - but if it's a 3-line whip, they'll be in trouble with their party
Not as much as voting against the whip

PMK

Still following even though I’ve stepped back a lot. Those threads are, unfortunately, not good for my blood pressure.

(Not eu to the posters on here of course. Just the craziness of British politicians)

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Meanwhile - what's the worst thing about this whole process? Andrea Leadsom tells us - “the worst thing I’ve seen is the failure to use parliamentary procedures in the right way- not the role of the Chair to select one member’s rights over another member’s rights”.

Leadsom also tells @bbcnews that it will be absolutely for the EU to budge if the vote goes down, not for the PM to soften up her deal

Errrrrrr..... ok.

Everytime I think May is an awful PM, we have Andrea to remind us it could have been worse.

As I thought, from current German and EU political mainstream opinion,
unbelievable Merkel would promise May to pressure Varadkar over backstop
^
Another deliberate - and silly - LIE by No. 10 / May

Do they think the Germany & EU don't read English papers to keep tabs on the idiocracy ?^
Or that they would let No 10 keep telling lies that Merkel had promised something ? 🤦🏻‍♀️
^
No.10 gave this story to the Sun as an "Exclusive"
and the Sun didn't bother to confirm with Germany / didn't care if it was lies

Shameless PM uses shameless journalists

Nicolai von Ondarza@NvOndarza
^
Another, potentially very damaging British-German misunderstanding.^
^
As a general principle, if the UK press reports a possible large concession by Merkel to the UK on #brexit, check the German media.
^
UK press has almost always overblown German 'concessions'

..........
StefanieBolzen@StefanieBolzen

This is not true. Government spokesman in Berlin tells @welt^ „that the content of the call between the German Chancellor and the British PM has been wrongly reflected in ,The Sun'".

Merkel has not given any reassurances beyond WA or Tusk/Juncker letter #Brexitvote

Yup, red Those wishing May to be toppled by the Tory party:

Do you prefer Leadsom, Bojo, JRM, Gove ..... or anyone else from the Tory Chamber of Horrors ? 🤔

Berlin tactfully puts it all on the "British press"

but be aware:
they are really telling us that our PM is a liar

(in case we hadn't yet realised)

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-brexit_uk_5c3cba56e4b0e0baf53fc180

May's Utter Hubris And Incompetence On Brexit Have Taken Britain To The Brink
If Britain crashes out of Europe with no deal, May and her handling of negotiations will be squarely responsible

@AdamBienkov
Brexiteer Conservative MP Desmond Swayne calls on Theresa May to suspend parliament until April in order to "guarantee Brexit."

So brexiters want to be out of the EU because it’s undemocratic and they want to take back control.
And at he same time, they also want to shut down the Parliament and basically democracy until April just to be able to get what they want (prob because they know they wouldn’t get it otherwise)

Sky is predicting that the loss will be bigger than the highest number in most of the sweep stakes I've seen!

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
Our analysis shows the PM will lose tonight by 226 votes; the largest defeat in House of Commons history. In normal circs,on such a central piece of govt business, a defeat like that would almost certainly bring the PM to resignation. Our constitution is changing before our eyes

@FaisalIslam
Essentially the Speakers selection of amendments sets up a v high likelihood of a clean vote for and against PMs deal at just after 8pm... with Government currently heading at very high speed for the brick wall of a humdinging and historic defeat.

I’m actually starting to like Bercow.

@tnewtondunn
I hear the PM just told Cabinet she will push on with her Brexit deal, no matter the size of tonight's defeat, as "it’s the only option". A big push from Rudd/Clark/Gauke/Perry to open talks with moderate Labour MPs, but rejected by Hunt/Javid/Fox/Lewis/Truss/Williamson.

Just in case anyone thought TM might resign....

Hello waves.
I’ve been lurking along for the past five threads (read them all in as many days) and have decided pop my head up over the parapet.
Am pretty clueless but find all your deliberations/analyses incredibly helpful. Thank you.

bloody hell. If she does that maybe we should all take to the streets - peacefully of course.

Jo Maugham QC@JolyonMaugham

If you're a minority Government pretending an exclusive right to interpret what the people voted for in 2016 - whilst shutting your ears to what the people want now - you're not so much a Government of the people as an insult to them.

Catching up with all the posts
.
Thought it might be useful to explain Labour actions as I was told by a labour reamain MP at the weekend.

Firstly Labour has to follow the Conference decision and order. So that is why NCV must come first after a defeat . Yes it seems that they are under no illusion it would oas but they have to follow procedure I think that it why it has appeared to orhers here that his recent Marr interview made people think that Labour wouldn’t be supporting a PV .
.

After that it seems that they would push for PV .

Also regarding extensions for a PV, ideally it needs to be before MEP sit in a new parliament in August but also there are precedents for appointing MEP eg existing ones in the past eg Croatia when they joined apparently. Therefore whilst extension would be required for PV it is not unlikely that EU would be able to agree something.

Parliament would need to decide on any question eg whether it would be 2 or 3 options . There is already debate over this and that depends on vote outcomes today and in next week.

This could all start in the next week so yes I foresee lots of new threads as we all keep up.

If this alll happens can’t see TM staying as PM very long.

Welcome QueenMabby (and any other lurkers!)

No one is 'clueless' if they are interested and want to find out what is happening - half the battle is simply trying to keep up at the moment rather than anything particularly inciteful IMHO. I bet you do know more than you think. And much more than many of our elected representatives!!!

PMK ta red

Off to see if ladbrokes has a bet on tonight

If Corbyn actually goes through with putting the NC vote
and then loses

the question then is whether he will abide by the Labour Conference decision and then push for a PV
OR
stick to his own Brexity principles.

Of course, he could do both, like his tactics in the 2016 ref:
pretend to support a PV, but actually do all in his power to hinder it

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot
Brexiteer MP predicts several resignations at the moment of the vote itself - or perhaps afterwards once they have defied the whip. Likely to include Tory vice chair Tom Pursglove but could be others.

What would happen if EVERYONE in government decided to resign, but May didn't. But they REFUSED to back a motion of no confidence tabled by Corbyn?

Cos this isn't looking completely unlikely right now