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Brexit

Westminstenders: The WA Vote ReDux

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/01/2019 23:01

Tuesday is scheduled to be the date of the Withdrawal Agreement Vote.

The current expectation is it will fail to pass. Badly.

If this is the case then May will have to report to the HoC about what her Plan B is within 3 sitting days under Grieve IV - by the end of Monday 21st January (which was the original date that Grieve III set).

Its being reported that if it fails that May will make some sort of statement either late on Tuesday or Wednesday before flying to Brussels in order to try and calm the markets.

This weekend has been full of politicking to position to get the WA to pass. Some of this is to push those who think that May will revoke or extent which will endanger leaving and some of it is to push those who fear no deal. Nothing is likely to be exactly what it appears.

The feeling is that No10 is currently working more to keep the defeat as small as possible in order to keep alive the possibility of representing the WA to parliament at a later date.

This week has seen big announcements from the car industry; none of which have been unexpected and some of which were connected to technology change and were likely to have been an inevitability to some extent, but the timing the week before the vote should also focus some minds.

We've had the news that 4000 civil servants from the following departments - Defence, International Development, Work and Pensions and the Education department - being lined up to handle no deal brexit, with secondments of up to 6 months. (The idea that staff from W&P might be moved with all the problems with UC is mind boggling).

We've also had the rumour that May has spoken to the Tory MEPs to inform them that if there is a chance of extending a50 and this means the UK would take part in June's European Elections. Many of the newspapers have been reporting this weekend that there is a high chance that the UK will not leave the EU on the 29th March as scheduled leading to the pound rising to its highest level in 7 months.

Dominic Grieve has stated the following, and I think its worth keeping an eye on.

Jack Maidment @jrmaidment
Dominic Grieve: Govt should immediately remove Brexit date from domestic law if it loses on Tuesday.

"without doing that there is no point in going to the EU and asking for an extension because we would still be crashing out and that would have to be, I think, a top priority"

It has been somewhat misinterpreted in some quarters as Grieve suggesting we change the UK's exit date. Its not. Its a reference to how UK law has a date set in it, so even if we did get an extension UK law would in effect automatically exit us legally on a domestic level, even if on an international level we were still members. This creates a bit of an issue whereby parliament would have to vote to make this change somehow, which would need to be facilitated by the government in some way - which means coming from the PM which obviously will be somewhat problematic for the cohesiveness of the Tory Party.

Indeed The Sunday Telegraph is tonight reporting that the Tories are on the brink of an historic split, with Brexiteers and Remainers both threatening to 'torpedo the Government if they do not get their way on Brexit'.

Pro-EU Mps are claiming that a third of the Cabinet would resign if May pursued a no deal Brexit and that several senior minsters want May to immediately open talks with Labour MPs about a compromise involving a permanent customs union if her deal is defeated by a large margin.

Steve Baker is warning that this would risk a split in the party 'akin to the schism prompted by Robert Peel's repeal of the corn laws'. And Bernard Jenkin has said that any attempt to change the exit date or strike a deal with the Labour Party would destroy the Conservative Party. For once, its hard to argue with either of them and say they are completely wrong.

Of course this also doesn't seem to fit with Labour's plans. The Observer is reporting that Corbyn plans to table a dramatic vote of no confidence in May as early as Tuesday evening in an attempt to force a GE. This is, to put it bluntly, fucking ridiculous. He would only need 7 Tory / DUP rebels (on top of the rest of the house) or some abstainers but it remains to be seen who these would be. A three line whip for Tuesday night, including for all unwell MPs is in effect for Labour.

Both the Mail on Sunday and The Sunday Times lead with similar stories about changing the rules of the HoC in order to effectively sideline the PM. The Mail refers to it as a plot between Grieve and Bercow, but the Times is much more broad stating:

A cross party group of senior backbenchers - including former Tory Ministers - plan what one senior figure branded a "very British coup" if May loses the crunch vote on her Brexit deal on Tuesday

At least two groups of rebel MPs are plotting to change Commons rules so motions proposed by backbenchers take precedence over government business, upending the centuries old relationship between executive and legislature.

Downing Street believe that would enable MPs to suspend article 50, putting Brexit on hold, and could even lead to the referendum result being overturned - a move that would plunge the country into a constitutional crisis.

The funny thing about all this news is at no point have I seen discussed whether we could extend a50 as it stands - as thats down to the EU. And at no point have I seen anything about how the EU would facilitate ratifying the WA at the eleventh hour if we have to go for round 2.

Indeed the growing feeling does seem to be largely that one way or another the WA is dead in the water if it has a large defeat. The question is perhaps now, what will the ERG do in this context? Will they plough on trying to persue No Deal? Because that too would surely lead to a split in the Tory party in some way.

A cross party group referred to the 'Norway Group' (Boles, Letwin, Morgan and Kinock) are apparently planning according to Boles, to make No Deal illegal.

So to put it mildly, next week is looking absoluetely mind blowingly crazy and likely to be explosive in some way or another.

And finally. Here's a handy tool for you.
How Many Days Until Brexit Timer

OP posts:
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53
mathanxiety · 14/01/2019 00:47

Sheesh, post 402 here.
You snooze you lose...

Peregrina · 14/01/2019 02:04

I certainly don't see the hatred from the Remainers. 700,000 of us held a peaceful demo a few months back, with no arrests. That's not the behaviour of people full of hate.The hate filled right wingers can't get more than a dozen people together without arrests.

Who exactly is it threatening Anna Soubry - Remainers? No. Someone did mention people harassing Rees-Mogg's children. Setting aside the fact that he didn't have the gumption to get them out of the way, that was nothing to do with Brexit, and the majority of people condemned the harassers behaviour.

MissMalice · 14/01/2019 02:49

that's not injustice that's just sods law.

It’s not though is it? It’s far more complex than that. This hasn’t been a straightforward referendum where one side simply didn’t get enough votes - there has been corruption (unfairness, injustice) throughout.

umpteennamechanges · 14/01/2019 02:59

From Robert Peston. As it happens Stoke is my home town (now live in Hampshire). There is A LOT of no deal love there...turkeys voting for Christmas since they will be hard hit by a 'no deal' outcome.

"The prime minister will tomorrow make a powerful speech - in the heart of Brexit UK, Stoke on Trent - that MPs "all have a duty to implement the result of the referendum", because failure to do so would wreak "catastrophic harm" on "people's faith in the democratic process and their politicians".

Coming as it does from the most important and powerful elected politician in the UK, this dramatic claim is worthy of careful consideration. What is it based upon?

Well it is founded on the premise, in her words, that "on the rare occasions when Parliament puts a question to the British people directly we have always understood that their response carries a profound significance".

That is an uncontroversial statement - though it is worth adding the rider that under the UK's unwritten constitution, referendums have "advisory" status, they do not mandate governments or parliament in a binding way.

But May also points out that when her predecessor David Cameron wrote to voters just before the referendum campaigns began, he said "this is your decision; the government will implement what you decide".

It is on those foundations that she argues that a vote against her Brexit plan on Tuesday night would be a betrayal of the British people.

But is that the inescapable logical conclusion?

The PM marshals as further evidence that "as we have seen over the last few weeks, there are some in Westminster who would wish to delay or even stop Brexit and who will use every device available to them to do so".

That is where many MPs would see her as being mischievously disingenuous - because although there are MPs who hate Brexit in any shape or form, the parliamentary action over the past few weeks has had a much narrower aim, namely to prevent a so-called no-deal Brexit.

The assorted forays by the likes of the senior Tories Sir Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve, and Labour's Yvette Cooper, have been shaped not to blow up all or any Brexit, but simply the version by which the UK would leave the EU in a possibly chaotic way and at alleged great economic cost on 29 March this year.

It is in May's conflation of her Brexit with any Brexit that she will anger and alienate both purist Brexiters and those who would rather the UK stays in the EU.

The important point is that there are many Brexiters who regard her own Brexit plan as betraying those who voted for Brexit.

And there are Remainers who argue that if the British people had known that Brexit would be her iteration they would never have voted for it.

Also both sets of critics would point out something fundamental which is often overlooked - that in leaving on 29 March, we would be out of the EU without having much of a clue what kind of future trading relationship we would have with the EU, or how much commercial and lawmaking independence we would in practice enjoy.

All of that is yet to be negotiated.

To put it another way, on May's version of Brexit, what for many is the whole point of Brexit would be undecided for years to come.

That is why both Brexiters and Remainers would argue that a vote against May's deal would not remotely dishonour the referendum, since so much of what the referendum was all about is yet to be decided.

And they add that in voting for what they see as in the country's interest, they are honouring Britain's constitutional and democratic traditions, which could not - they would say - be the "catastrophic" blow to democracy that May avers it to be.

Quite the contrary, they would say - which is why I don't expect many of them to be swayed by May's speech.

Here is what one senior Tory said to me, after seeing the attack by May on MPs who have been employing parliamentary devices to avoid a no-deal Brexit: "we are descending into banana republic status", adding that Tory rebels are "taking steps to protect the UK from a minority government gone mad".

As for the Brexiters, one of their number, who supports a no-deal Brexit, told me: "this is the most important vote in the Commons since the Norway debate [in 1940, which led to Churchill becoming prime minister] and the government and the EU are trying to stitch it up between them. It reeks to high heaven".

But if - as May's ministers tell me - there is therefore no possibility of May's speech seeing her home and dry in a couple of days, what follows? Is there anything else of importance to be read into what the PM is saying?

If her words are to be taken at face value, they imply a no-deal Brexit - however economically costly that may be - is what she would prefer over a referendum and no Brexit at all.

There must be a significant probability that a no-deal Brexit will become the cabinet's official policy and not just the default option - albeit that several ministers would quit in protest.

Truthfully I am surprised to be writing this about the PM. I always thought that for May a no-deal Brexit was a bogeyman that would never be let out of the Downing Street cupboard. But her statement that it is her "duty" to implement the referendum result allows for no other conclusion.

Many in her own party openly disagree with her that a no-deal Brexit should be contemplated in any circumstances.

In words whose import were widely under-appreciated, Letwin - one of the more senior and respected backbenchers - said last week, when voting against what he called "my government" for only the second time in his life, he would continue to rebel against her as often as necessary, "right up to the end of March", to prevent no deal.

He and the former attorney general, Grieve, are seriously fed up with being accused by Downing Street of being traitors, when they feel that for years they have been more loyal to May than most of the Brexiters.

They and likeminded colleagues are examining parliamentary procedure to see if on this they can seize the initiative and power from the prime minister, to empower backbenchers to veto no deal.

Meanwhile Brexiters are engaged in a parallel process of seeing what can be done to prevent either government or MPs repealing or amending the existing legislation that would guarantee a no-deal Brexit in the absence of the approval of her deal.

This is momentous, titanic, the stuff of constitutional crisis, almost a new civil war.

But whether our democracy will emerge damaged or burnished is yet to be decided."

borntobequiet · 14/01/2019 05:42

The physical structure of Parliament matters a lot. As others have mentioned, it’s designed to be confrontational. I’m not sure if it’s true that Govt and Opposition are seated over a sword’s length away in case of trouble, but I wouldn’t be surprised. MPs are crammed together in a space too small for them and it’s known that overcrowding modifies behaviour, and not in a good way. There is nowhere to write and put notes, I think reading from notes is thought gauche, so speakers are more likely to wing it, which is not a good way to go about things. And you only have to listen to PMQs once to realise how disgraceful the behaviour is.
Regenerate Stoke! Put Parliament there, in the round, with proper facilities (including female toilets) and well equipped offices for everyone.

lonelyplanetmum · 14/01/2019 06:05

Hear hear Born!

Regenerate Stoke! Put Parliament there, in the round, with proper facilities (including female toilets) and well equipped offices for everyone.

lonelyplanetmum · 14/01/2019 06:07

On a separate note regarding TMs anticipated Stoke speech.

Being stuck with a 2016 straw poll makes no sense.

Imagine there had been an advisory referendum on something else three years ago.

For example imagine....
2016- a Welsh vote to leave the U.K. The yellow chunk of people vote leave.

2019-Wales now knows more facts and figures about the economic consequences of leaving. The Welsh people have also discovered the Leave politicians falsely told then health care would improve if they left.

Would failure to allow Wales a confirmatory vote in 2019 really wreak catastrophic harm on people's faith in the democratic process and politicians? After all if a democracy cannot change its mind it ceases to be a democracy.

Westminstenders: The WA Vote ReDux
DGRossetti · 14/01/2019 08:31

Wow ! Can't move for Brexit stories on the BBC.

Sostenueto · 14/01/2019 08:34

Radio full of saying EU waiting to see if WA fails and by how much before it steps in. Whose running the vote Parliament or the EU?Confused

golondrina · 14/01/2019 08:51

Marking my place to catch up later

SusanWalker · 14/01/2019 08:53

I heard something a while ago about the actual legislation for the ref to be held. Mps didn't bother amending the legislation to include a minimum percentage for leave or any other safeguards because DC assured them it would be advisory. Then once the legislation was through he moved the goalposts. So parliament are now trying to mitigate this in the best way they can. Another words it's all Cameron's fault.

DGRossetti · 14/01/2019 08:58

Another words it's all Cameron's fault.

The poster child for forced labour. He should be required to come back and clean up his mess.

SusanWalker · 14/01/2019 09:00

In fact the more you think about the way he unilaterally moved the goalposts, that's really undemocratic.

bellinisurge · 14/01/2019 09:01

Who do you think is running the vote? Silly idea @Sostenueto .
The EU is the other side of the negotiating table and has skin in the game. So of course it is watching us.
It has a duty to protect its members in particular, Ireland that is most likely to be affected.
It would be unlikely to give us more time for anything except a PV or a GE. Why give an extension to allow more dicking about?
We don't get an extension without all EU members agreeing to it.

DangermousesSidekick · 14/01/2019 09:15

Placemark. These threads move fast!

"on the rare occasions when Parliament puts a question to the British people directly we have always understood that their response carries a profound significance". Oooh, hypocrites much?

Shame they've never given a toss about putting a direct question every time there's a General Election. If normal voting rules had been applied to the Referendum, i.e. FPTP by allotted (and gerrymandered over centuries) ward, would Leave have won I wonder? British 'democracy' has always been a fiction. If it wasn't, if we had a system based on negotiation and compromise as so many systems in the EU are, our political class wouldn't be making such a total mess of things would they.

Tanith · 14/01/2019 09:16

I’ve wondered for a long time if Cameron’s actions were deliberate. He always said he would step down as leader during that Parliament and he seems to be doing very nicely at the moment.

Was he bought off? I can hardly believe that anyone in his position could be that reckless and incompetent as he showed himself to be over the Referendum (and then I look at the current shower in place...Sad).

Btw, I do think “hate” is the wrong word to use. I see “hate” written a lot these days when that’s not at all the meaning intended.
In rl, I see “anger” and “rage”, but not “hate”.
Perhaps it’s used differently in the US and is causing confusion (“Haters gonna hate” etc.).

1tisILeClerc · 14/01/2019 09:20

{It has a duty to protect its members in particular, Ireland that is most likely to be affected.}
Ireland might need some form of baling out in the short term. On the basis that UK businesses (unless revoke happens) are likely to move to Ireland it could become a boom area as it is English speaking. A year or two of a shortage of capital to reestablish could be the problem.
On the basis that all UK citizens are only 'numbers' to the government, and that 'no deal' will be the cause of significant deaths, I would like the concentration of these deaths to be on the Tory leavers and others that are rabidly 'leave' focused, rather than our old and infirm who will die of hunger, cold and preventable diseases.

RedToothBrush · 14/01/2019 09:21

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
Realpolitik at its finest.

John McDonnell refusing to endorse Hilary Benn amendment to kill no-deal & PM's deal.

Tory whips really worried about it as Tory Remainers likely to back it

Yet Labour poised to oppose it because it would avoid 'straight' vote on PM's deal...

So Labour about to whip against amendment tabled by Labour MP seemingly because it has a chance of winning 🧐

McDonnell: 'Hilary Benn’s amendment is perfectly sound [but] most MPs would rather just have a straight vote on the deal itself'

OP posts:
PestymcPestFace · 14/01/2019 09:31

Regenerate Stoke! Put Parliament there, in the round, with proper facilities (including female toilets) and well equipped offices for everyone.

I like this Born. Add electoral reform with some sort of PR and it would be far more effective than Brexit. A proper shake up of the system, whilst regenerating an area. Not far from Crewe either so good for travel.

However, we have May's agreement (not deal, that comes later). Nobody like the agreement, but it is pretty much what I always thought Brexit would look like. Unfortunately as pointed out by a PP, government are not very good a efficient and effective communication.

BlueEyeshadow · 14/01/2019 09:34

Dangermouses "on the rare occasions when Parliament puts a question to the British people directly we have always understood that their response carries a profound significance". Oooh, hypocrites much?"

It's worse than hypocrites, it's liars: www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/theresa-may-claim-that-all-parties-accepted-welsh-devolution-questioned?CMP=share_btn_tw

"In fact, while the assembly was created after 1997 referendum, in which the winning margin in favour of devolution was just 0.3% – a majority of 6,721 votes – when the relevant bill was put to the Commons many Tory MPs, including the then-newly elected May, voted against it."

Peregrina · 14/01/2019 09:40

I think the WA will fail. I will take a guess and say not by nearly as many votes as predicted but 50 or so. Then what?

borntobequiet · 14/01/2019 09:40

I believe Cameron called the Referendum genuinely thinking it would be won for Remain. After all, he'd pulled it off with the Scottish referendum. He probably couldn't imagine the depth of resentment and anger among the both the genuinely disadvantaged and those who perceived themselves as hard done by for whatever reason (including simply being contrarian). He also had no idea that his calling the Ref would unleash the forces of disruption from the alt-right, the wholesale spreading of lies and misinformation from both our own politicians and media and bots and trolls on social media. He thought facts would trounce feels. Hubris and lack of imagination were his downfall.

Motheroffourdragons · 14/01/2019 09:41

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

HesterThrale · 14/01/2019 09:41

Pesty I also feel like sending a dictionary to Westminster so the ERG can learn how to spell ‘punitive’.

I get fed up with being told that Remainers are just sore losers. Perhaps they want to avert a situation where experts predict that all possible outcomes will leave us worse off?

Westminstenders: The WA Vote ReDux
borntobequiet · 14/01/2019 09:41

Farming Today on how to win people over using a peripheral approach. Immediately followed by a spokeswoman from PETA demonstrating how not to do it.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0002050