Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

I'd say an email to your MP, saying you want the to support a PV is definity worth the 5 mins it would take.

The Brexit loons know PV is doable and winnable for Remain/Revoke and they, consequently, have been busy.

We should take a leaf out of their books.

MPs are saying that they are getting a lot of letters denouncing a PV. There's a reason for that. And it's not because it's actually the most popular thing.

@lonelyplanetmum - probably already answered but Also why the hell was the Grieve (❤️) vote so close anyway.Are all of the bloody 297 no dealers who positively want to run down the clock?

Explained partly by the ‘payroll vote’ and partly by fear of their electorate. My MP is extremely vocal about the dangers of no deal but he voted with the Govt to keep 1) his position within government and 2) his seat.

Popped out for the afternoon, just seen the result of Grieve IV. Awesome stuff. Also seeing some less awesome stuff on Bercow on Twitter. These people so desperate to see our parliament being sovereign sure don't like it do they?

Thanks as ever RTB

Would someone mind just popping round and swapping Corbyn's notes before his big speech tomorrow?

Meanwhile ... right on cue, the Ultra-Corbynites are attacking Yvette Cooper and saying she has no place in Labour.

😂

Because there can be no threat to the Dear Leader.

Honestly, I think Corbyn's position on Brexit is determined only be internal Party politics and the need to secure his position.

Way more than any presumed belief in Lexit 🦄 or Euroscepticism.

The WA leaves us still trying to figure out Brexit proper, with even fewer cards to play. It's a nightmare: 2 years of watching major business decamp, with no benefits. A slow blood-letting.

Agreed.

😂 @BiglyBadgers

Thanks talks. Seems to me too many Leave MPs are happy to defy their Remain majority constituents. Yet too many Remain MPs are running scared of their Leave constituents!

Thinking about it, what is the worst thing Corbyn could do?

Suggest a PV (and in a GE manifesto) that excludes Revoke and is only on WA, No Desl and some unspecified, woolly promise of a future, Labour negotiated 'Norway' option.*

Given that this is the worst option, I'm putting my money on this being the substance of Corbyn's speech.

Guaranteed to drive anyone still following events to incredulous despair.

• Undecided, cake, 🦄, and undeliverable because the EU won't put A50 on hold for that.

@DGRossetti Keri was my typo for Keir

Unless it is just 'principle' that Labour and Corbyn don't agree with the WA I don't see why they are opposing it as it has all the elements available that can be moulded to whichever shape Labour would like their version of leave to be, the same a the (moderate) Tories.

My Labour MP was unequivocal - it fails their 6 tests.

@DGRossetti Keri was my typo for Keir

More prosaic though ...

The major benefit of the WA is that it is not No Deal
No Deal would be a catastrophe without compare - a 1st world country choosing to be one no longer

the WA - like any form of Brexit - would be worse than Remain

The WA is cutting me non-fatally, so I can choose to go to A&E to stop the bleeding and get well again
No Deal is cutting my head off

A day of meetings and I have missed 400 posts!! Thanks RTB.

Did you forget that a Tory Central office bod was convicted over the Thanet by-election (Farage stood)
I did.
What a dirty political culture they have

Jo Maugham QC Retweeted Nigel Booth@boothybarrister

Wow, sentencing remarks:

‘I am satisfied that she was able to act as she did because of a culture of convenient self-deception and lack of clarity about what was permissible in law and what was not
at Conservative Central Headquarters in this campaign.

https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/marion-little-sentencing-remarks.pdf

Meanwhile ... right on cue, the Ultra-Corbynites are attacking Yvette Cooper and saying she has no place in Labour.

But even Corbyn supported Cooper's amendment and congratulated her or thumbed up or something when it passed. Why are his supporters getting a tizzy about her?

People are confusing.

SIgnificance of Grieve IV:

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

The significance:

1. Practically, much harder for No10 to run down the clock to No Deal now
2. The battle of the amendment shows Bercow ready to break precedent to help MPs v HMG - and will do it again
3. So; Brexit will be softer
4. And a 2nd referendum made more likely

I don't see us re-entering the EU for at least 15/20 years if WA gets accepted. I also think we'll see that many years of right-wing government if WA is accepted.

People get nasty when they get poor.

I agree Mo Deal is a catastrophe - but the WA is close behind it.

Meanwhile, Barclays is going public about relocating assets to Dublin.

🤷‍♀️

bigly They seem to have the impression somehow that this is against Corbyn's policy (whatever that is) and / or that he in fact disapproves.

I wonder who might have given them that impression / nod & a wink ?

Place Mat King - taking ages to catch up!

@DGRosetti Labour’s 6 tests are transparently designed to be “failed”, a majority of Labour MPs want “No Brexit”. Most essentially believe that the 2016 result delivered the “wrong” result and should be overturned by fair means or foul.

@BigChoc

It's the threat to his leadership thing.

Everyone gets it if they get too big a profile (Tom Watson, John McDonnell) + it's the whole 'perpetual warfare' thing: what keeps the momentum going around Corbyn's leadership is the generation of hatred towards 'the Enemy' ('Centrists').

It is confusing. And harmful.

Blimey, I haven't been on line today, because I have been on grandchild sitting duties and you are passed 200 posts on a new thread already. I will have to do some serious catching up!