Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

cat A Fast Track Rejoin in transition would very probably be available from the EU side, if we requested it.
Of course, they can't make any UK govt choose the sensible option.

Sorry, that should have been @Bigly

And BigChoc is absolutely spot on.

Yes, BigChoc.

I just have this horrible, horrible feeling that if we get the WA, the way our politics will spin out over the next decade ... that 'fast rejoin' won't be taken up because we won't get a government that will do it.

In all honesty, I see WA leading to a series of very, very authoritarian governments. With perhaps one, chaotic, Labour administration wedged in amongst the very right-wing governments.

That is a major, major worry of mine.

But even Corbyn supported Cooper's amendment and congratulated her or thumbed up or something when it passed. Why are his supporters getting a tizzy about her?

Because filthy blairites like us like her ;)

I still don't really understand what happened this afternoon but it seems like parliament has woken up and now back benchers and the opposition smell blood.

😂@Mistigirl

Just stupid people being stupid then. Ah well.

I'm not a filthy blairite at all, but I still think she did a good thing and seemed to be supported by Corbyn and co as far as I could see. It was jolly nice to see labour pretty much all on the same page for once to be honest.

{My Labour MP was unequivocal - it fails their 6 tests.}
The 6 tests looked like remain without calling it that. EVERYTHING fails those tests, even remain now as we HAVE ALREADY been made worse off both by currency devaluation and loss of industry. The cockup is in full swing now and on 29 March it will go into hyperdrive.

LouiseCollins 70% of Labour members support remain as do nearly 90% of labour voters.
So those MPs are representing those who voted for them

The function of an Opposition, especially in a hung Parliament, is to oppose as effectively as possible, policies with which it disagrees.
It's not supposed to roll over.
A referendum is no more sacred than a GE; it's a vote on one day.

Polls show that if Labour support Brexit and Brexit actually happens, then in the next GE they'd lose about 20% of voters and be decimated.
Under FPTP, that would mean the Tories would win a landslide

So if Corbyn continues his pro-brexit stance, he will be responsible for a defeat of the order of Michael Foot's
It won't be the fault of Labour remainer MPs.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
🚨 Govt source warns that any Tory MP who sides with Labour in a confidence vote to stop no deal would immediately have the whip withdrawn and be deselected as a Conservative candidate at the next election. “They would be voting to end their career"

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/remain-mps-stop-a-no-deal-brexit?__twitter_impression=true
Remain-Supporting MPs Think They Can Stop A No-Deal Brexit. But Can They?
Conservative rebels have admitted they may have to vote with Jeremy Corbyn to bring down Theresa May.

{I just have this horrible, horrible feeling that if we get the WA, the way our politics will spin out over the next decade ... that 'fast rejoin' won't be taken up because we won't get a government that will do it.
In all honesty, I see WA leading to a series of very, very authoritarian governments. With perhaps one, chaotic, Labour administration wedged in amongst the very right-wing governments.
That is a major, major worry of mine.}
Taken from a viewpoint at least 20 Miles from British shores this is still a 'least bad' option for both sides.
UK politics will be buggered whatever happens and there will be constant bickering for years, however with the UK citizens being 'in' the EU, until legislated out by revised laws, they are 'protected' by the EU and current legislation. Yes the UK will be paying shitloads of money but you can't have everything. Big business can see which way the wind is blowing and react accordingly and if it transpires the government are truly out to destroy the UK it can happen without it taking down the EU. Killing the EU would unleash unimaginable terrors that the UK would be unable to deal with.

Hooray!
GNU looms.

Talking of the danger of May merely running down the clock to force No Deal on us unconditionally, my DH is of the opinion that in such circumstances, at least in theory, someone could invoke the Civil Contingencies Act for a National Emergency, as the definition of national emergency as therein defined seems to fit the consequences of a No Deal exit as already admitted by the government. Is he right? Any clever lawyer people?

Just catching up after a FOUL drive home .... posted on the old thread by mistake but thought I'd add this

@Ta1kinPeace Beautiful cat!

She looks like she has crimped fur? Has she been at the 80s crimpers?

@BigChocFrenzy As I am sure you realise, representing “the people who vote for them” is the job of precisely 0 out of the 650 MPs in the Commons. MPs are elected to represent all those in their constituencies,

The function of an opposition is to oppose. The function of an oppositon is also to hold the government of the day to account for the actions it takes, not to prevent it from acting at all and certainly not to commit to one course of action and seek votes on that basis, only to renege on such a commitment after those votes are counted.

I do not know whether your figures indicating a 20% loss of voters for Labour are correct or not. I have seen various predictions for what will happen if Labour backs a PV, backs Remain or backs Brexit.

What I am sure of is that if Labour fail to support the delivery of the Brexit they committed to in 2017, they will lose my support, that is a certainty.

Talk Thank you for that.

Meanwhile ... right on cue, the Ultra-Corbynites are attacking Yvette Cooper and saying she has no place in Labour.
DH agrees she is far too sensible and competent.

Apologies for Freudian slip earlier I do not “fancinate” Corbyn!
But at least it raised a laugh!

I think the apparent anger against YC is what I saw in a microcosm yesterday arguing with local Facebook Corbyn lovelies who worship his feet. One of them in particular looked very foolish at the end having berated me in the morning for something he (eventually) supported.

And yes I pointed out today that Corbyn had not exactly shown leadership which was what is needed right now.

The worshiping really got to me though.

Re RedToothbrus's post (removal of whip from Con MPs voting for NC)

Wouldn't it be good to see Conservative MPs abstaining in large numbers at such abuse of Parliament and strong-arm tactics against their colleagues?

(Mind you, I think NC was always a tough win. Even if it is, effectively, the only sure way to stop No Deal).

Really, I think it's PV or No Deal.

I can't see WA passing. May is looking desperate now.

I'd get writing to your MPs.

LeClerc It is the difference between choosing an inferior option - if we have to, later - that gives a chance of something better
vs
just letting it run out to a known disaster.

My fears of far right authoritarianism are far more with No Deal - in fact I think it is a likely consequence, especially after a US FTA, worse than TTIP on steroids.

We would be desperate to keep the remaining businesses and their wealthy top managements;
the ERG plan a low tax economy anyway.
We wouldn't be able / would choose not to afford the current level of benefits & NHS spending

As the Singapore PM reminded people thinking of a Singapore-type No Deal:
their govt has about 16% GDP public spending, whereas the Uk has about 40%
He asked if we were prepared to make the necessary savage cuts to welfare and abolish the NHS

Well, Louise, the stats say that it's losing your vote versus decimation.

Lucky for you, there seems to be a leader oblivious to this.

LouiseCollins28 are you one of the Corbyn lovelies too who stand by his back whatever?

Worship and to be above criticism is a dangerous thing and I say this as someone who voted for Corbyn twice in elections.

LouiseCollins In practice, MPs mostly vote for the policies of their party:

Look at all the decades of Labour MPs voting for one set of policies and Tories voting for another set
Tory and Labour constituencies don't have totally differnet human beings

Labour are absolutely right to oppose Tory policies,
just as Tories would be absolutely right to oppose those of a Labour govt

If Michael Foot's Labour had been elected on a manifesto of withdrawal from NATO and unilateral nuclear disarmament,
surely Tory MPs would have fought tooth and nail, including with any Labour "defectors" to defeta those policies.
Even though the govt was elected on them.

Of course you can choose not to vote Labour again, just like some Tory Remainer voters are choosing not to vote Tory again

btw, this is one of the polls - YouGov - which questioned 25,000 people in the biggest Brexit poll since the ref

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

" Labour would crash to a landslide election defeat if it helped Brexit go ahead"

I have total of all these gorgeous Westministender cats !

The silver tabby was familiar for 17 years. She died 12 years ago.
This is my current furball.
He has the intellect of an ERG member, but is much quieter, bless him.