Westminstenders: What The Hell Happens Next?!

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has just spent over at an hour dealing with a Points of Order, in which he has argued that he is defending the soverignty of the House of Commons and that is his duty, not to simply to be a cheerleader for the executive.

Taking back control seems to have rather upset ERG Brexiteers.

As Jess Phillips astutely pointed out:
"People only care about procedures, and protecting and conserving the procedures, when they don't like the outcome of the thing that is about to happen and never when it is going in their favour."

And given what we have seen the Executive do over the last few months in terms of trying to use procedure for its own political gain, this is quite a fair point.

There are however certain constitutional questions this is all raising. And we have a very real constitutional crisis here.

Bercow has ruled that he CAN allow an amendment (because the previous vote had prevented only a motion and a debate) put forward by Grieve to go to a vote.

This amendment would - if it is passed by the house - require May to report to the house within 3 days if the WA fails to pass next week.

This would be a significant victory, if it passed because at present the position is where May can delay reporting back to the house until it start to get to the point where politically the opposition can't influence things, and a 'meaningful vote' will in practice be more like a gun to the head by the Executive, rather than the House of Commons acting in a sovereign manner and being free to make its own decisions rather than be forced into a corner by Parliamentary Procedure and the politicking of Parliamentary Procedure to undermine the independence of the HoC.

Allowing more time for the opposition to hold the government to account, does not necessarily change anything. It just means the executive can not just run down the clock in the way it perhaps has been intending.

The HoC could of course, vote against the amendment.

The WA is to come to the HoC next week.

And we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next.

16 Tory MPs voted for Grieve IV.

Heidi Allen, Nick Boles, Ken Clarke, Jonathan Djanogly, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Jo Johnston, Phillip Lee, Oliver Letwin, Nicky Morgan, Robert Neill, Antoinette Sandbach, Anna Soubry, Edward Vaizey and Sarah Wollaston

Plus NI independent (who generally votes with the Gov) Lady Hermon.

Jo Johnston and Andrew Mitchell DIDN'T vote for the finance amendment last night.

Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Michael Fallon, George Freeman, Justine Greening and Nicholas Soames DID vote for the finance amendment but DIDN'T voted for Grieve VI today.

So thats 22 Tory MPs in total who seem to have enough concerns to actively vote against their own party in the last two days.

Labour MP Kevin Barron and former Labour Frank Field voted against Grieve with the government

Source: @ ParlyApp.
(I've not seen the list myself. Curious to see what Labour did...)

Tatiana negotiating a softer Brexit during the WA or a Rejoin is looking more likely atm than the chances of Revoke.

I’d say they’re equally unlikely at the moment.

I know you want to Remain at all costs but don't call something a unicorn just because you don't like it.

You know nothing about me. Trying to misrepresent my view to bolster your own flawed judgement is a bit desperate tbh. Remain isn’t currently on the table.

I don’t call it a unicorn because I don’t like it, but because it is a fantasy for which there is no current intent and could not happen without a change of government. But a change of government with Corbyn at the helm would not materially change the likely WA outcome.

Argue the WA because you think it’s safer. Don’t argue it because it will lead to soft Brexit.

Robert Peston @Peston
Having studied the Swire amendment, I am now clear it would not in practice give the UK government or parliament any additional legally enforceable right to avoid or terminate the backstop and will therefore be regarded as critics of May's deal as meaningless. So it will...

...do almost nothing to help @theresa_may avoid a humiliating defeat in the vote on her deal next week, and its main significance is to demonstrate the dire state of the PM's hopes for her deal

You had to 'study' that Robert???

The WA may lead to soft Brexit and even would allow Rejoin
of course it is dependent on which flavour of govt we have
That's democracy

It is possible that Corbyn may come round to an SM+CU final deal, or that he is replaced.
There are many possibilities of what can happen in the WA

No Deal would be a disaster for the country and yes, I know we could Rejoin after that, but as a basket case

If you agree Revoke is not an option atm, are you putting your hopes on a Revoke at the 59th minute ?
If by the HoC, what mechanism have they got to legally force May to do this within the remaining time ?

Once the WA is voted down, we may be able to test the strength of the various options in the HoC.
it is then that the Remainers in the HoC must force and win a Revoke or a PV
If they can't / won't do either, then it is time for the WA to be brought back again and this time approved

Continual delay after that point just means that those who want No Deal can run out the time.

I do think the best option at the moment would be

• a speeding up of process

• with pressure on the executive

• with Labour following through on the Conference pledge: lost WA vote; lost NC vote (thus no GE), a PV motion, a PV with 3 options (WA, no deal, revoke A50)

🤷‍♀️

Which Labour MP could replace Bercow, if he loses a VoC ?

I think Peston is addressing the slower thinkers.

Sounds good to me, cat

If you agree Revoke is not an option atm, are you putting your hopes on a Revoke at the 59th minute ?

Nope.

If the WA is voted down, Parliament will have to fight out the options.

Faisal Islam@faisalislam

To be clear the Motion that the PM is obliged to bring by next Monday now (if she loses) is amendable and will be an opportunity for the House to have its say on No Deal, A50 extension, & potentially second referendum too

Not sure about the latter options but we’ll see.

Unless it is just 'principle' that Labour and Corbyn don't agree with the WA I don't see why they are opposing it as it has all the elements available that can be moulded to whichever shape Labour would like their version of leave to be, the same a the (moderate) Tories.
I believe the EU have already said they would like a deep and meaningful relationship with the UK with regard to trade. It would require Labour to have a decent workable plan in mind which might be an issue.

Parlyapp can't count. 17 Tory rebels not 16.

Kate Hoey, Jared O'Mara, Graham Stringer and John Woodcock didn't vote.

{, I know we could Rejoin after that, but as a basket case}
With the state of global issues, the EU doesn't actually want to be supporting a basket case. The cream of industry will have left the UK and the UK population may be groups of people wondering how to pick fruit and veg.

The EU have been through the whole "failed state near our borders with nukes" once before
and they know now to avoid it

placemark!

The WA leaves us still trying to figure out Brexit proper, with even fewer cards to play. It's a nightmare: 2 years of watching major business decamp, with no benefits. A slow blood-letting.

It will also, I think, result in a backlash for Labour, who will be blamed (fairly or not) for not resisting it.

That will let in another Conservative government; almost certainly a more right-wing government.

The WA is not a good option.

The problem with that scenario, BigChoc is (as always,) Jeremy Corbyn.

No, the WA is of course far inferior to Remain,
but tomorrow we have only 78 days until Brexit
and after the WA vote we'll have about 70

There is a short window after the WA vote for the HOC to force something better - that can only be a Revoke or a PV;

The question is how much time we allow them to try
If they look like they are making real progress, that could be until early March

However, it can't be until 29 March, or we are relying on May to blink and Revoke - a really small chance

Lots of chatter about A50 extension, which can only happen with something like PV (with Revoke option), might suggest strong will in House for PV, though ...

Surely now due to game play Theresa may WA will be voted in.
It seems pointless all of it when it’s inevitable now.

Having said all of which, though, am pretty certain Corbyn is going to take PV off table tomorrow . 🤦‍♀️

No. Not pointless. The numbers for a PV really are there. Along with the options to make it doable (and winnable for Revoke).

I do think the problem now is Corbyn.

I see that Paul Mason is applying pressure not to go against the Conference motion.

Which suggests, to me, that Corbyn is planning to ditch the motion. ☹️

When RTB says we have no idea what the hell is going to happen next then if she can't call it, I know I really can't.

I can write thank you notes though, and I just emailed Grieve and Bercow to thank them for their efforts in ensuring that Parliament has input at each stage. I'm sure they're getting abuse so it's important to balance that out.